Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

033 
WWUS54 KMAF 152002
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
302 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

TXC371-389-152045-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200315T2045Z/
Pecos TX-Reeves TX-
302 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTIES...

At 302 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 22 miles southeast
of Saragosa, or 28 miles west of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Firestone Test Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 226 and 253.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 10325 3075 10285 3064 10340 3075 10346
      3092 10347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 244DEG 23KT 3083 10335 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

84

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The moist, unsettled pattern continues across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas today. Fog has persisted into this afternoon across
the Permian Basin, Southeast New Mexico, and portions of the Trans
Pecos, though visible satellite imagery indicates clearing across
the Rio Grande Valley, Big Bend Area, and Davis Mountains, with
clearing edging into the Stockton Plateau, with storms already
developing over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains. While
showers and thunderstorms are possible for most of the area
through tonight, the aforementioned areas where clearing is
occurring stand the best chance to see severe thunderstorms
beginning later this afternoon and continuing through late
evening, per latest high- resolution guidance. Dewpoints in the
60s will yield CAPE values possibly up to around 2000 J/kg, and
given shear of 45-60kt and steep lapse rates, large hail and
damaging winds are the main concerns, though to the lee of the
Davis and Glass Mountains and across the Stockton Plateau, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Further north, the
environment is significantly more stable, and while thunderstorms
are possible across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin,
severe potential will be limited. Of additional concern tonight is
the potential for heavy rain and potential flash flooding,
especially along and south of I-10 and across the far southeastern
Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos Precipitable water on the 12Z MAF
sounding came in at 1.06 inches, which is in the 99th percentile
for this time of year, thus heavy rain will be possible with any
storm, and where cell training occurs, flooding problems could
arise quickly. The axis of heaviest rainfall looks to shift east
of the area by daybreak Monday, however those traveling Monday
morning will need to be cognizant of potential flooded roads or
road closures.

Areas of fog that persist through this evening and expand
overnight look to stick around through at least late morning on
Monday, with conditions gradually improving by lunchtime. Clouds
will stick around Monday afternoon across most of the Permian
Basin southward across the Stockton Plateau where temperatures
will reach into the 60s to around 70 degrees, whereas to the west
where more clearing is expected, highs in the middle 70s to 80s in
the Rio Grande Valley are possible. Monday looks to be a "down"
day regarding thunderstorm activity, with storms possible early in
the day across the eastern Permian Basin, and overnight across
southern portions of the Big Bend Area, but dry conditions
otherwise. Temperatures warm on Tuesday into the 70s for most of
the area, with middle 80s and even 90s possible across far
southern zones. The threat of severe weather also returns Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night as a dryline develops across the
region ahead of an approaching shortwave, with storms that develop
during the afternoon potentially growing upscale into a line as
they move east into Tuesday night. Wednesday will see continued
warm temperatures and thunderstorm chances as the upper trough to
the west finally begins to open up and translate eastward across
the Desert Southwest before lifting toward the Central Plains by
Thursday.

A drying trend will begin Thursday as a Pacific Front moves
through  the area, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 60s
to middle 70s expected for most. A trailing cold front will drop
through the region Friday afternoon, and continued cold
advection/easterly surface flow will yield highs mainly in the 50s
and 60s by Saturday. Friday looks to be a dry day, though
moisture will begin increasing again on Saturday, with rain
chances returning to the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  65  56  73 /  80  20  10  60
Carlsbad                       49  73  50  74 /  30   0  10  20
Dryden                         60  72  60  80 /  70  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  53  70  55  79 /  60  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 47  68  50  65 /  20   0  10  20
Hobbs                          46  68  50  70 /  40  10  10  40
Marfa                          47  75  45  75 /  40  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  67  57  75 /  70  20  10  50
Odessa                         49  67  56  75 /  70  20  10  40
Wink                           51  70  56  76 /  50  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

49/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-161915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 /109 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and well into the
evening across across much of the Trans Pecos today including the
Davis Mountains/Foothills, Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. These
storms may contain heavy rain, resulting in localized flash
flooding, strong winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

Areas of fog are likely across much of the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe thunderstorms are again possible on Tuesday and possibly
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening, and
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons and evenings.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
855 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

TXZ048-151415-
Scurry TX-
855 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCURRY AND
NORTHEASTERN BORDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 855 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fluvanna, or 10 miles south of Lake Alan Henry, moving northeast at
45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fluvanna.

LAT...LON 3281 10112 3290 10118 3296 10117 3297 10117
      3297 10105 3296 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 234DEG 40KT 3292 10109

49

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

TXZ075-274-278-152000-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
236 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS...NORTHERN
BREWSTER...SOUTHEASTERN REEVES AND EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Balmorhea Lake, or 24 miles northeast of Fort
Davis, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 10361 3096 10365 3120 10326 3075 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 229DEG 29KT 3080 10356

49