Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

161 
WWUS54 KMAF 150013
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
713 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

TXC443-150045-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-200515T0045Z/
Terrell TX-
713 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY...

At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Dryden, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dryden and Terrell County Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Midland.

&&

LAT...LON 3020 10233 3009 10191 2984 10207 2994 10234
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 194DEG 18KT 2996 10219 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

84

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty winds at issuance will diminish after sunset this evening,
with winds returning to the S/SE at all but CNM/HOB overnight. A
dryline will sharpen across the area Friday afternoon, likely
INVOF HOB/PEQ, yielding thunderstorm chances for INK/MAF/FST
beginning around 20Z through the end of the forecast period. Have
not included TS mention that far out, but VFR conditions are
expected to prevail outside of any storms that develop Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Weak upper ridge over the region will give way to an approaching
trough that reaches the Rockies Friday.  Shortwaves in the base of
this trough will move over the area late Friday/early Saturday
morning.  A high pressure ridge builds in Saturday behind that.  On
Sunday the next upper trough hits the West Coast moving across the
Great Basin Tuesday and to the 4 Corners Region early Wednesday.

Temperatures have already climbed into the 90s as of midday with
above normal temps expected the rest of this week into the next.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s with some 50s west and even
40s over the Marfa Plateau.

A surface trough over Eastern NM extending down across the Big Bend
this afternoon will be present on Friday too.  West of the trough a
west wind will help to develop a dryline Friday over the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.  Will leave isolated pops in eastern
counties this afternoon and evening... while not expecting much do
have good moisture over the east with dewpts in the 60s.  As of 18z
seeing some cu pop over Eastern Pecos County on the dryline. However
tomorrow looks to be the best chance of storms for the coming week.
Currently there is a slight risk of severe storms Friday east of a
Lamesa to Fort Stockton line... will have a dryline in place along
with good cape and steep lapse rates.  Model qpf showing precip
maximums Friday over Pecos/Terrell with a second maximum over the
Northern Permian Basin... bumped up pops slightly both places.
Storms that develop should track SW to NE but the whole precip area
will move east. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main
concerns... but with supercells possible cannot rule out a weak
tornado or two.  By 12z Saturday all precip should have exited the
CWA. Next shot of rain looks to be midweek with the approach of the
next upper trough.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions with minimum relative humidity of 10 percent or less
and above normal temperatures will contribute to elevated fire
weather across southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains
today. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Recent rains have at
least temporarily decreased concerns some across the Davis Mountains
and Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase across eastern
and central portions of the area on Friday and may result in dry
lightning. Low RH values will continue across portions of the area
into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  93  61  88 /  10  40  50  10
Carlsbad                       61  94  57  93 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         72  91  63  94 /  10  50  50  10
Fort Stockton                  67  92  62  93 /  10  50  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  87  60  85 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          60  91  55  89 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          49  86  46  89 /   0  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           68  93  62  90 /  10  30  30  10
Odessa                         67  92  63  90 /  10  30  30  10
Wink                           63  95  60  95 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
132 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-151845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
132 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 /1232 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A strong storm or two is possible across the Lower Trans Pecos and
the eastern Permian Basin this afternoon and early evening. Hail,
gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning are the main concerns.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across southeast
New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across West Texas
mainly from the Lower Trans Pecos extending north and northeast into
much of the Permian Basin. Damaging hail and winds, localized
flooding, low visibilities, and cloud to ground lightning are the
main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland