Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
246 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A few storms, possibly strong, are possible into early evening
along and e of the dryline from the ern PB into the Lower Trans
Pecos-Big Bend. The dryline will retreat this evening and south
winds will strengthen to 25-30G40mph across the PB. Storms are
not expected follow dryline w as it retreats due to very warm 7h
temps overspreading the dryline. Attention then turns to a strong
cold front that will arrive in the nrn PB near 07Z-08Z/Fri, I-20
09Z-10Z, and w of the Pecos River 11Z-12Z. Preparations should be
made for a widespread higher end advisory level winds (ne
35G55mph) at least across PB, probably a little less so at
FST/PEQ/CNM. After 12Z/Fri 85h winds across the Trans Pecos will
be ne at 30-40kts and as such places like GDP Pass-Marfa will be
especially windy. A High Wind Warning has already been issued for
GDP Pass, but Marfa may need to be included in a warning? The mid
shift will have chance to look at 00Z data before wind arrives in
the Marfa area and we will let the advisory ride for now. Areas of
blowing dust can be expected and an Airport Weather Warning will
likely be needed for MAF. Winds will decrease after 18Z/Fri. Highs
will be much cooler and guidance continues to trend temps down,
other than brief post-frontal clouds there will be afternoon
sunshine, except possibly the far reaches of the Trans Pecos.
Below normal temps will follow Sat AM-Sun AM before the return of
near normal temps Mother's Day afternoon. Minor shrtwv trofs in
flow Sun PM could be enuf for some precip across the wrn half of
the CWFA. Precip potential looks a little better Mon with a more
definitive shrtwv trof and better low-level moisture. Dryline may
shape some Tue with a stalled front just n of CWFA. By Wed models
indicate mid-level pattern has changed to sw flow aloft signaling
an increase in severe tstm potential?

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx developing w of the dryline where RH have dropped
to as low a 6 percent at Artesia. Winds are still coming up but
still expected to mostly fall into 15-25 mph range, except higher
GDP Mtns. Cold front tonight will bring abrupt wind shift and
much stronger winds between 2 AM-5 AM SE NM and PB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  72  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  76  48  82 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         68  80  56  78 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  62  74  50  79 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  67  46  75 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          55  72  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          53  71  41  78 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  73  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           60  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MDT Friday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chavez Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to noon CDT /11 AM MDT/
     Friday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Eastern Culberson
     County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to noon CDT Friday for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Terrell.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-081945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
240 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020 /140 PM MDT Thu May 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, and Van
Horn area. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening for
the Eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend and Marfa
Plateau. A few of these storms could become severe with large hail
and damaging wind the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains will
begin late this evening for post frontal winds.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for remainder of the area by Friday
morning as strong northerly winds will occur by the cold front moving
through this evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon east of a Marfa...
Fort Stockton... to Snyder line.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
358 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

TXZ069-075-072145-
Pecos TX-Upton TX-
358 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of McCamey, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 293 and 302.

LAT...LON 3108 10204 3100 10205 3098 10201 3099 10198
      3094 10192 3086 10235 3107 10233 3103 10229
      3103 10221 3100 10219 3101 10218 3099 10208
      3101 10205 3108 10205 3109 10228 3122 10192
      3108 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 250DEG 23KT 3102 10222

80