Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now over eastern UT.  Models dig
this to the UT/AZ border by 00Z Thu, before ejecting the trough to
the upper MS Valley by 18Z Sat.  At the sfc, the cold front is just
NW of KLUB as per area radars, and appears to be slowing as diurnal
heating takes place.  Hourly analysis throughout the morning has the
HRRR and Nam Nest performing best on the placement/timing of the
front, as would be expected over the lwr res models.  That said,
fropa at KMAF looks to be 02-03Z this evening, although that timing
gets defenestrated if convection comes into the mix.  Speaking of,
the latest HRRR develops convection along a weak dryline up against
the higher terrain 19-20Z, w/development along the front 20-21Z,
putting everything east of the Pecos, as well as the Stockton
Plateau/lwr Trans Pecos, in a warm sector w/dewpoints mostly in the
60s.  Forecast NAM soundings to the north of KMAF at 21Z show
mlcapes in excess of 3000J/kg w/no cap.  Models are in good
agreement w/steep mid-lvl lapse rates of 7+C/km from KMAF west ahead
of the front, as well as dcapes over 1000 J/kg.  Convection
along/behind the front should quickly become elevated, and a few
severe storms this afternoon/evening are not out of the question.
Supplementing this will be a 40kt LLJ set to develop over the lwr
Trans Pecos ahead of the front, as well as the right entrance region
of the upper jet.  One other possibility tonight that's been absent
from these parts for quite awhile will be heavy rainfall.  PWATs are
running about 2 std devs above normal, and K indices ahead of the
front in excess of 35 suggest a potential for heavy rainfall, which
is also noted in fairly impressive model QPFs.

Temps w/this front continue to frustrate, mainly because the GFS
decided to go off on its own, which has messed up the blends quite a
bit.  Looking at post-frontal temps up north, the GFS can be
discounted for now, and the NAM is the favored model for this event.
That said, many targets of opportunity have arisen over the next
couple of days, and we'll undercut NBM numbers quite a bit.  This
should result in record-breaking cold highs Wed afternoon.

Temps should stay cool through until at least Friday, when skies
begin clearing and sfc flow veers around to the SE.  Long range
models still develop a weak upper trough between ridges over Texas,
which will keep a chances of convection in play each day, and temps
below normal for once.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  56  50  60 /  80  80  70  70
Carlsbad                       44  57  45  66 /  70  30  20  20
Dryden                         60  69  56  67 /  60  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  53  61  49  62 /  80  50  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 44  58  43  65 /  70  30  20  20
Hobbs                          44  53  44  62 /  90  50  40  30
Marfa                          46  65  43  66 /  70  40  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           52  57  49  61 /  80  60  60  60
Odessa                         52  58  48  62 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           51  61  49  64 /  80  50  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday for
     Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM MDT Thursday
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

87/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-091930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
226 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020 /126 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight.  Any storms
that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small
hail, gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall. Flooding of low lying
areas is possible. There is a marginal risk of severe storms from
mid afternoon through early evening, mainly across Southeast New
Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas, capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds.

A High Wind Warning is in effect beginning this evening for
Guadalupe Pass.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A High Wind Warning remains in effect through Thursday morning for
Guadalupe Pass.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

NMZ028-TXZ271-273-082045-
Eddy County Plains NM-Eastern Culberson County TX-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains TX-
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT/245 PM MDT/...

At 252 PM CDT/152 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles east of McKittrick Canyon, or 12 miles northeast
of Pine Springs, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McKittrick Canyon, Carlsbad Caverns National Park and Guadalupe
Mountains National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10474 3200 10473 3202 10473 3203 10470
      3205 10469 3205 10468 3208 10465 3210 10459
      3197 10427 3167 10461 3194 10479 3196 10478
      3195 10479 3196 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 320DEG 10KT 3198 10462

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