Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Have one upper trough exiting the Northern Plains today as a
stronger trough swings down across ID into WY.  By tomorrow morning
this 2nd trough will develop a closed low and move down into CO and
into NM later in the day.  By early Wednesday this trough will swing
across the TX Panhandle and move into OK later in the day.  As this
trough passes east the upper ridge over the Western US will build
back into the region.

This morning many area locations had unusually warm lows in the 80s
as overnight wind kept temps up.  MAF morning low was 82 degrees.
A weak cold front has moved into the area today with a change in the
wx pattern as August ends. Stayed on the warm side of guidance
tonight but readings should be down into the 70s with a few 60s.  A
surface trough sets up over the area Tuesday with a west wind behind
it and a south wind ahead of it. Highs will primarily be in the 90s
Tuesday for the first day of September... will still be very warm
down on the Rio Grande with 100+ readings expected.  Cooler readings
expected Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s as temperatures
return back to near normal.  Look to have warmer temperatures
Thursday before another front Friday knocks temps back down.

The drought has been very much in effect this summer... since June
1st MAF has only had 0.59 inch of rain and is currently 3.65 inches
of precip behind for the year.  Have had some Light showers around
the nrn half of area today with increasing rain chances tonight and
tomorrow.  MAF 12z sounding had a PW of 1.5 inches and with
increasing low level moisture the potential will exist for locally
heavy rain.  The Eastern Permian Basin is in a marginal risk tonight
with another marginal risk for the eastern half of the area Tuesday
so the potential will exist for some strong storms and even a few
severe storms.  Historically September is the wettest month of the
year for the region and will keep a chance of storms in for at least
part of the area through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  70  92 /  50  40  50  30
Carlsbad                       72  94  66  92 /  30  30  30  20
Dryden                         80 101  76  96 /  20  40  60  30
Fort Stockton                  74  97  71  94 /  30  30  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 70  87  64  85 /  30  20  20  10
Hobbs                          68  93  63  88 /  30  30  40  30
Marfa                          67  88  62  87 /  40  40  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  71  92 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         74  98  72  93 /  40  30  40  20
Wink                           75 100  72  94 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-011930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020 /117 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and
tonight. Some of these storms could become strong... with a few
severe storms possible mainly over the Eastern Permian Basin.
These storms may also produce locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A chance of thunderstorms will continue each day through Saturday...
some of these storms could become strong to severe with locally
heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this evening across the Eastern
Permian Basin.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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