Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

511 
WWUS54 KMAF 130718
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

TXC173-383-130727-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200313T0800Z/
Glasscock TX-Reagan TX-
218 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN REAGAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3148 10151 3166 10165 3183 10127 3152 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 239DEG 31KT 3171 10129 

$$

87

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Line of SHRA/TSRA is currently pushing east into KMAF with SCT
SHRA across KCNM/KHOB. Activity will motion east over the next few
hrs with return to VFR for a period. Lowering CIGS forecast by
morning across KMAF/KHOB with MVFR to IFR conditions behind a weak
cold front. CIGS will slowly lift at all terminals by the
afternoon, but monitoring for developing TSRA beyond 19/20z at all
locations. With some discrepancy in guidance, holding off on
issuing tempo or prevailing TS until 12z update.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 138 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite shows an abundance of mid/high clouds across the area and
as a result SB instability will not be able build much, SB LI's
were around zero to -2 with ambient 7h-5h lapse rates poor-fair.
Still this evening/tonight a minor mid-level shrtwv trof will come
out from nrn MX into the Trans Pecos and PB resulting in
scattered SHRA/isold TSRA. High resolution models and 12Z NAM12
are in pretty good agreement that SHRA/TSRA will track ne from the
Davis Mtns into the PB, mostly between 03Z-09Z/Fri. A more
interesting set-up for severe storms exists Fri PM. The favored
area for storms will be dependent upon the frontal position, NAM12
has been a little farther s and w than GFS. The surface moisture
gradient will be poor, but a narrow axis of moderate instability
will form right along/behind said front, probably from far se SE
NM-wrn PB-sern PB-Lower Trans Pecos. Deep layer bulk shear will be
strong (80kts) and steering flow will favor storms to move ne. A
storm or 2 may ride along/close the boundary increasing potential
for a tornado or 2, not to mention large hail/strong winds. The
favored window for severe storms will be 21Z/Fri-09Z/Sat. The
frontal boundary will retreat newd into Fri night-Sat AM and then
push back to the s and into the Trans Pecos by Sun PM. Sat will be
a down day WRT storms, then the chance of SHRA/TSRA will start to
increase again Sun PM with the front returning and into Sun night
when a 65-70kt mid-level speed max comes out. PoPs will be high
Sun, but placement of the more robust convection is more
difficult, possibly Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB where better low-
level moisture will likely be found. Temps could be all over the
place thru Sun as a result of the boundary moving s, then n, then
s again. Fri will be cooler across the PB n of I-20 with highs in
the 60s and 70s and then cooler Sun with highs in the 60s,
possibly 50s across the northern areas, per NAM12? SW flow aloft
is forecast to remain active/wet Tue-Thur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  55  75  52 /  60  80   0  20
Carlsbad                       77  48  74  49 /  60  10   0  10
Dryden                         82  61  82  62 /  10  30   0  20
Fort Stockton                  82  56  77  58 /  20  40   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  44  63  47 /  50  10   0   0
Hobbs                          70  48  72  47 /  60  40   0  10
Marfa                          76  46  75  48 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           72  55  76  53 /  40  70   0  20
Odessa                         73  54  76  53 /  40  60   0  20
Wink                           78  52  77  53 /  40  30   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

87/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
124 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-131830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
124 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 /1224 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible late tonight, mainly across
the southeastern Permian Basin. Damaging winds are the main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the area Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The
greatest risk for severe weather is currently across portions of
Southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Friday afternoon and
evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
101 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

TXZ061>063-068>070-130645-
Midland TX-Reagan TX-Crane TX-Ector TX-Glasscock TX-Upton TX-
101 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GLASSCOCK...SOUTHEASTERN
ECTOR...NORTHERN REAGAN...SOUTHERN MIDLAND...SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD...
NORTHEASTERN CRANE AND NORTHERN UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Crane, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spraberry, Midkiff and Saint Lawrence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 10219 3165 10240 3209 10163 3150 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 240DEG 49KT 3152 10217

87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

TXZ052-053-063-130730-
Mitchell TX-Glasscock TX-Howard TX-
137 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK...WESTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 137 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Garden City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Forsan, Lake Colorado City State Park, Lake Colorado City and
Westbrook.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 192 and 209.

LAT...LON 3209 10126 3195 10127 3188 10156 3202 10168
      3245 10103 3209 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 238DEG 43KT 3199 10153

87