Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tonight the main focus is on the potential for storms to move
into SE NM and impact CNM/HOB. Radar shows scattered storms near
and north of Ruidoso moving s-se. Favored track and environment
supports storms arriving near CNM/HOB 03Z-05Z/Wed and we have kept
the TEMPO TSRA there until 07Z-08Z. Otherwise VFR elsewhere with
easterly winds mostly less than 12kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020/

DISCUSSION...

We received some much needed rainfall last night in many locations
across the Permian Basin including the first measurable amount at
MAF since May 15th! A decaying Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is
observed on satellite over central TX. Further west in our
forecast area, a sfc boundary left behind from last night's
convection has pushed up against the higher terrain. Easterly
winds behind this boundary have cooled temperatures quite a bit
compared to yesterday. Dew points are in the mid to upper 50s and
skies are continuing to clear. Models indicate a new complex of
storms will materialize off of the Sangre de Cristos Mountains in
New Mexico this evening and drift southeastward along the eastern
periphery of a large upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest.
These storms are progged to reach southeast New Mexico around
03Z, and the Upper Trans Pecos by 06Z. High-res models indicate
the storm complex could make it as far south as PEQ-INK- ODO
before dissipating. Forecast soundings show a fairly unstable
airmass will bejectory in place ahead of these storms w/bulk
shear values increasing to around 35-40 kts tonight and thus a few
severe reports are not out of the question with damaging winds
being the main threat. Convection tomorrow will depend on outflow
from tonight's storms. It looks like the best chances will be
across the higher terrain from the Guadalupe Mtns to the Marfa
Plateau. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow
reaching the mid 90s. The upper ridge will be nudged a bit further
eastward Thursday and Friday as an upper-level trough moves into
the western U.S. Increasing heights aloft will suppress convection
across much of the region besides the higher terrain Thursday and
Friday. A passing shortwave trough will promote increasing
thunderstorms cjectoryhances across the northern CWA on on
Saturday. Warmer and drier weather is expected Sunday through the
beginning of next week as ridging returns.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  69  95 /  20  20  10   0
Carlsbad                       69  94  68  98 /  40  20  30  20
Dryden                         73  96  73  98 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  70  95 /  30  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 63  85  64  90 /  30  30  40  20
Hobbs                          66  90  66  93 /  40  20  20  10
Marfa                          62  89  60  92 /  20  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10   0
Odessa                         68  92  70  95 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           72  96  71  98 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-242000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
258 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020 /158 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.  Any severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by
large hail and/or damaging winds. Frequent lightning in and near
thunderstorms is also likely.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
along the mountains of eastern New Mexico and move southeast over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas. Additional thunderstorms
may develop over the Davis and Chinati Mountains of southwestern
Texas. The best chances for thunderstorms will be late this evening
and early Wednesday morning over southeastern New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
719 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

TXZ275-281-240045-
Presidio Valley TX-Chinati Mountains TX-
719 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Candelaria, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Candelaria, Chinati Mountains and Ruidosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 10469 3019 10449 2984 10459 2985 10463
      2994 10468 2995 10467 2997 10468 2998 10469
      3002 10469 3002 10470 3005 10471 3008 10469
      3013 10470 3018 10469 3022 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 019DEG 23KT 3016 10462

12

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