Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cold front is hard to isolate, given current convection, but
models bring it through most terminals 12-18Z, w/forecast
soundings suggesting brief MVFR cigs at fropa. Sfc flow will then
veer slightly behind the front, w/plenty of residual high cloud
from convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Right now, we have a mesolow evident on KMAF radar imagery located
a few miles northwest of the radar with a decaying outflow
boundary extending northeast over the western Low Rolling Plains.
A dryline bulge extends southeast of this mesolow into the
southeastern Permian Basin, then southward into the lower Trans
Pecos. Winds to the north and northeast of the mesolow have
backed, bringing with it mid 60s dewpoints up into the
northeastern Basin/western Low Rolling Plains. Convergence to the
east of the mesolow on the moist side of the decaying boundary may
be enough to overcome stout convective temperatures to produce
isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening
over the northern Permian Basin. Given the thermodynamic profile
aloft (an "inverted-V" signature), any storm that does develop
will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts. Late
tonight, a mesoscale convective system, or MCS, is expected to
move across the northeastern Basin, bringing with it gusty winds
and some needed rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
then end around sunrise over this area, although a few lingering
showers may persist until noon over the western Low Rolling
Plains.

Tomorrow's weather is contingent upon the outflow generated by
tonight's MCS activity. It's expected that the outflow boundary
will push to roughly the Pecos River valley, bringing cooler
weather with it to the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
Confluent flow along this boundary combined with strong
insolation along the eastern slopes of the Sacramentos will be
sufficient to pop scattered storms again tomorrow afternoon.
Southeastern New Mexico will see the greatest threat of severe
weather tomorrow afternoon, mainly in the form of damaging winds.
This convection is expected to grow upscale into another MCS, with
this activity tracking along and north of the outflow boundary
overnight over the Permian Basin. Damaging winds may accompany
this MCS early tomorrow night. Most areas across the Permian Basin
should pick up some badly-needed rainfall, with probabilistic
guidance suggestive of amounts in the 0.1"-0.5" range most
likely.

Decreasing clouds Wednesday and cool temperatures are forecast,
but upper heights are expected to build over the region Thursday
through the weekend, and this means a warmup to above normal
readings. By Saturday expect temperatures to top out above the
century mark across the upper Trans Pecos as well as the Rio
Grande and nearby lower elevations. We could see some isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop off the mountains
Saturday. Sunday and Monday look to be about the same weatherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  89  69 /  30  40  30  10
Carlsbad                       95  68  94  69 /  10  50  40  20
Dryden                         97  72  94  71 /  10  20  40  10
Fort Stockton                  95  69  92  69 /  10  30  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  64  87  66 /  10  40  40  20
Hobbs                          91  66  89  66 /  20  40  40  20
Marfa                          95  62  91  60 /  20  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           93  69  91  69 /  30  40  30  10
Odessa                         93  69  91  69 /  20  40  30  10
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

44/87/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-231945-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 /137 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible over the central and eastern
Permian Basin late this afternoon through tonight. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of West Texas and
southeast New Mexico through this evening. An Excessive Heat Warning
remains in effect for Central Brewster County through this evening.
Triple digits likely for all areas, except the mountains where mid to
upper 90s will be common.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening for southeast New Mexico and areas in West Texas along and
west of the Pecos River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W MIDLAND             32.00N 102.17W
06/22/2020                   Midland            TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE POWER LINES SNAPPED IN HALF AND BRICK FENCE

            POSTS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SH158 AND SH191

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     TSTM WND GST     WELCH                   32.93N 102.13W
06/23/2020  M62 MPH          DAWSON             TX   MESONET

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1243 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND GST     WELCH                   32.93N 102.13W
06/23/2020  M72 MPH          DAWSON             TX   MESONET

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1249 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ045-050>052-060>063-230645-
Southern Lea County NM-Eddy County Plains NM-Northern Lea County NM-
Central Lea County NM-Midland TX-Martin TX-Andrews TX-Ector TX-
Glasscock TX-Howard TX-Gaines TX-Winkler TX-
1249 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EDDY...SOUTHERN LEA...
NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK...NORTHERN ECTOR...ANDREWS...NORTHERN
MIDLAND...SOUTHWESTERN GAINES...NORTHEASTERN WINKLER...WESTERN HOWARD
AND MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT/1245 AM MDT/...

At 1245 AM CDT/1145 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow
boundary from Hobbs to Seminole to Lamesa to near Gail. This
boundary was moving south at 60 mph. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can
be expected as the boundary passes along with areas of blowing
dust with brief low visibility.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, Hobbs, Andrews, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, Greenwood,
Stanton, Goldsmith, Monument, Lomax, Humble City, Lenorah, Eunice
Airport, Nadine, Jal Airport, Midland International Air and Space
Port, Luther and Cotton Flat.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 128 and 172.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT/400 AM
MDT/ for parts of western Texas.

LAT...LON 3289 10319 3278 10319 3278 10305 3268 10272
      3252 10271 3252 10139 3192 10174 3191 10294
      3255 10384 3312 10347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 344DEG 51KT 3252 10245

49

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
105 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE LAMESA             32.75N 101.93W
06/23/2020  M78 MPH          Dawson             TX   ASOS

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
120 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW TARZAN            32.32N 102.01W
06/23/2020  M61 MPH          Martin             TX   MESONET

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON