Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of MAF at issuance,
though are expected to continue moving away from the terminal over
the next hour with conditions improving. Elsewhere, TS impacts
are not expected this evening, though outflow boundaries could
produce erratic/gusty winds through 02-03Z. Have maintained VFR
conditions areawide through the forecast period, with elevated and
gusty SE winds at all terminals except CNM. MVFR cigs may try to
edge into the area toward daybreak Saturday, though confidence is
too low to include mention. Additional storms are possible
affecting MAF/FST Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is centered over southern Canada and extends
southward into New Mexico and the southern plains. A dryline will
set up across West Texas this afternoon with very moist and unstable
conditions to the east of this feature. Convective Available
Potential Energy (CAPE) values are expected to get up to 4,000 J/kg
across portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this
afternoon according to the NAM12. Bulk wind shear values are
expected to get up to around 40 kts across portions of the area by
this evening.  A shortwave trough is expected to move over the
region today bringing enhanced upper level lift. These conditions
will lead to a chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across much of the area with the best chances being across
the Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains. Temperatures today
are expected to be a little cooler than yesterday but will still be
hot with highs mostly in the upper 90s to triple digits.

The upper trough will move over the central plains on Saturday with
temperatures cooling slightly from today. CAPE values are expected
to be 3000 to 4000 across parts of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Bulk shear values will be 35 to 40 kts across portions of the
area. Another shortwave is expected to move over the region bringing
more upper lift. These conditions will once again allow for a chance
of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday across portions of the
area. The dryline will be across the far eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with some moisture extending back west
to the Davis Mountains so some storms will again be possible but not
expecting as wide spread of coverage as today and tomorrow. A
surface trough becomes more prevalent on Sunday so temperatures
are expected to heat up into the triple digits for much of the
area. Similar conditions will exist for Monday with temperatures
continuing to heat up into the triple digits for most of the area.
A cold front from the upper trough moving over the Upper Midwest
will move into West Texas and southeast New Mexico on Tuesday
resulting in temperatures cooling into the lower to mid 90s.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday into
Wednesday as a result of the front. Temperatures will be below or
near normal through next Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  94  71 101 /  40  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       67 101  68 105 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         73  97  73  99 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  71  98  72 101 /  20  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  92  66  93 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          65  95  66 102 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          61  95  61  96 /  20  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           70  96  71 101 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         70  96  71 101 /  20  20  20  10
Wink                           72 101  71 105 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
333 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-200845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
333 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020 /233 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe weather potential across portions west Texas and Southeast New
Mexico will exist this afternoon with greatest threat across the
Permian Basin. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds
with the strongest thunderstorms.

Elevated fire weather concerns will affect portions of Southeast New
Mexico and the adjacent Guadalupe Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Chances of severe weather will exist for west Texas on Saturday and
Sunday. Large hail and damaging winds will remain the greatest
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             11 N LENORAH            32.47N 101.88W
06/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       Martin             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAMANTHA.ZUBER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

TXZ282-200015-
Lower Brewster County TX-
642 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 641 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms 21
miles east of Persimmon Gap, or 33 miles northeast of Panther
Junction, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Brewster County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2950 10301 2992 10271 2977 10251 2975 10255
      2977 10257 2975 10258 2973 10262 2975 10267
      2974 10268 2968 10269 2964 10274 2960 10274
      2960 10277 2955 10277 2952 10281 2949 10280
      2947 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 291DEG 33KT 2967 10281

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
651 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     LENORAH                 32.31N 101.88W
06/19/2020  E60.00 MPH       Martin             TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER INCH HAIL AND TREE DAMAGE AS WELL.

&&

SAMANTHA.ZUBER