Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM CDT this
evening from the eastern Permian Basin south across the Lower
Trans Pecos to the Stockton Plateau and Brewster county.

Similar to yesterday afternoon, another round of scattered
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop today along a dryline,
with initiation already observed to the lee of the Davis and
Glass Mountains in Pecos county, where moisture convergence is
maximized. While temperatures are slightly cooler today and
dewpoints not quite as high, ample instability on the order of
2500-3500 J/kg will be more than enough fuel for convection along
and ahead of the dryline, especially given a shortwave traversing
the area this afternoon into early this evening. Large to very
large hail and damaging downburst winds are the primary concerns,
with the hail threat maximized within the first few hours of storm
development later this afternoon. Storms will gradually expand in
coverage east-northeastward across the eastern Permian Basin, and
are expected to congeal into multicell clusters/line segments as
they move east out of the area this evening as the threat
transitions more toward straight-line damaging winds. Heavy rain
can be expected with any storms that develop as well, thus a flash
flood threat exists, especially over areas that received rainfall
yesterday, and any locations that experience cell training this
afternoon. Most high- resolution models have the bulk of the storm
activity exiting east of the area by around 8PM-9PM CDT, though
lingering showers may persist a bit longer, especially over
eastern zones tonight. In the wake of today's storms, lows tonight
will be a bit cooler than the past couple of nights, ranging from
the 50s west to the lower to middle 60s east.

A big change is still on tap for Monday, as a cold front associated
with a slow moving upper trough sinks into the region. Models have
continued to trend cooler for Monday, however, high temperatures
will be highly dependent on both the location/timing of the front,
as well as any associated cloud cover. For now, have trended highs
downward a couple more degrees, with highs in the 70s north to 80s
south, and 90s confined to far southern zones. A triple point looks
to develop Monday afternoon at the intersection of the dryline and
surface cold front, possibly over the western Permian Basin near the
NM state line (roughly in the vicinity of Jal, NM to Kermit, TX).
This area could serve as a focus for strong to severe storms on
Monday afternoon, with storms progressing southward and eastward
along with the cold front.

Tuesday onward, anomalously cool conditions are expected as the
aforementioned trough cuts off around the Red River Valley and
wobbles around Texas through the end of the week. The position of
this low will dictate rain chances, and currently, models indicate
that West TX/SE NM will remain to the west of the low, with better
rain chances focused over Central and East TX. Late in the week
however, models now indicate the low briefly opening up before
pinching off again, and retrograding over West TX next weekend. That
could mark an increase in rain chances over the weekend, though a
lot can change between now and then. Tuesday continues to look like
the coolest day of the forecast for most locations, with highs
ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s for most. Temperatures then
slowly moderate through the end of the week, but remain at least a
few degrees below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  75  55  74 /  30  40  50  20
Carlsbad                       60  75  54  82 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                         67  89  61  84 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  63  87  56  80 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 55  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          57  70  50  76 /   0  30  30  20
Marfa                          52  82  46  78 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           64  79  55  76 /  10  30  40  20
Odessa                         64  79  54  76 /  10  30  40  20
Wink                           60  84  53  82 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

49/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
138 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-251845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
138 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 /1238 PM MDT Sun May 24 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across the Permian Basin southward to the eastern Big Bend
and Lower Trans Pecos. Large damaging hail, damaging wind, and
localized heavy rain resulting in flooding or flash flooding are the
main threats.

Near critical fire weather conditions from near Van Horn northward
to Chaves County will persist until early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday across the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Damaging hail and wind are the main
threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may needed later today and Monday.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             38 SE FORT STOCKTON     30.50N 102.43W
05/24/2020  E1.50 INCH       Pecos              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAMANTHA.ZUBER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
447 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ075-082-242230-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
447 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS AND WEST
CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 447 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Sanderson, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3010 10263 3017 10272 3031 10270 3034 10222
      2998 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 269DEG 20KT 3021 10261

84

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
455 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ069-070-242245-
Reagan TX-Upton TX-
455 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REAGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN UPTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Rankin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Lake, Texon, Rankin, Reagan County Airport, Best and Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3109 10207 3150 10195 3152 10128 3108 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 217DEG 27KT 3114 10178

49

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
530 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ047-048-053-242300-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-Borden TX-
530 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY...EAST CENTRAL BORDEN AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
J B Thomas Reservoir, or 14 miles southwest of Snyder, moving north
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Snyder, J B Thomas Reservoir, Randalls Corner, Winston Field, Ira,
Knapp and Cuthbert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3247 10097 3248 10117 3252 10117 3253 10119
      3277 10122 3276 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 182DEG 14KT 3255 10108

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW BIG LAKE          31.20N 101.47W
05/24/2020  M58 MPH          Reagan             TX   MESONET

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON