Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

091 
WWUS84 KMAF 021942
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW 
MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS... UPPER TRANS 
PECOS...VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, 
AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH FIRE 
DANGER...

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE IN DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...

.Dry conditions and record heat will result in critical fire 
weather this afternoon through early this evening across 
southeast New Mexico, portions of the higher terrain of southwest 
Texas and western portions of west Texas. Critical fire weather is
again possible Sunday and Monday across the same areas.

NMZ116>118-TXZ270>273-030745-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0006.200503T1800Z-200504T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200503T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chavez Plains-
Eddy Plains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-
242 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 /142 PM MDT Sat May 2 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW 
MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS... UPPER TRANS 
PECOS...VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, 
AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH FIRE 
DANGER...

* TIMING...Through early this evening and again Sunday afternoon.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...15 to 20 degrees above average.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

NMZ119-TXZ045-046-050-059-060-274-277-278-030200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200503T0200Z/
Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-Reeves County Plains-
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
242 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 /142 PM MDT Sat May 2 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
15% OR LESS, 20 FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER...

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...15 to 20 degrees above average.

* LIGHTNING...Isolated dry lightning strikes possible in Davis 
  Mountains.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 AM CDT Sat May 2 2020

.DISCUSSION...
The heat will continue into Monday with zonal westerly flow
providing near record temperatures. The dryline will push farther
east today than it did yesterday with isolated storms possible in
the far eastern Permian Basin, lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.
Strong gusty winds will be the main threat due to very dry air
beneath any storms that develop. A cold front will move into the
Permian Basin tomorrow but will only provide very modest cooling
to our northeastern counties before retreating back to the north.
Midland/Odessa and places farther west will not see any effects
from the front and will continue to suffer the heat into Monday.

The pattern finally breaks on Tuesday when an upper low moves into
the northern Plains sending a cold front south into West Texas.
This low gets wrapped up into a larger, stationary low in
southern Canada near the Great Lakes that will amplify a ridge
over the West Coast. So not only do we get a cold front on
Tuesday, but cool air will continue to filter south in
northwesterly flow that will keep temps near normal through the
end of next week. A few disturbances will transit the area but
lift will be weak and any rain chances will be minimal for the
time being.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More record heat and dry weather is expected today through Monday
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Fuels will also
continue to dry with ERC values exceeding the 70th percentile
across southeast New Mexico, the higher terrain of southwest Texas
and western portions of west Texas, excluding the central and
eastern Permian Basin of west Texas. Will upgrade the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and early evening
for the aforementioned areas of higher ERC's. Max RFTI values will
generally range from 3 to 4 in the warning area. The exception
will be the Davis Mountains where max RFTI's will range from 1 to
2, mainly due to lighter winds. This should be compensated for by
the favored higher terrain combined with drier fuels and low rh/s
expected. East of the Red Flag Warning area today, isolated
thunderstorms pose a concern for dry lightning strikes from the
Big Bend to the eastern Permian Basin.

More record to near record heat and drying conditions will
continue Sunday and Monday but winds will become light in most
areas. Max RFTI values of greater than 0 will be mainly confined
to the southeast New Mexico Plains and the Guadalupe Mountains.
Will defer to later shifts to determine any highlights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    101  70 100  69 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       98  63  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         99  68 101  68 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  69  99  68 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 88  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          97  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          93  58  94  58 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport          101  69 100  69 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                        100  67 100  68 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                          101  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
     Chavez Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon
     through this evening for Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Winkler.

&&

12/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1004 PM CDT Fri May 1 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-030315-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1004 PM CDT Fri May 1 2020 /904 PM MDT Fri May 1 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight, mainly over the
Presidio Valley and Big Bend Area.  Any storms that do develop will
be accompanied by dry lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Fire Weather Watch remain is effect for Saturday afternoon through
early evening across Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West
Texas, including the Davis and Apache Mountains.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly over
the Big Bend Area and lower Trans Pecos. Any storms that do develop
will be accompanied by dry lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
228 AM CDT Sat May 2 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-022100-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-
Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad,
Carlsbad Caverns NP, Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal,
Seminole, Lamesa, Gail, Snyder, Andrews, Stanton, Big Spring,
Colorado City, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, Midland, Garden City,
Monahans, Crane, McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton,
Dryden, Sanderson, Guadalupe Mountains NP, Pine Springs,
Van Horn, Pecos, Marfa, Fort Davis, Alpine, Big Bend NP,
Panther Junction, Marathon, Chisos Basin, Presidio, Lajitas,
and Castolon
228 AM CDT Sat May 2 2020 /128 AM MDT Sat May 2 2020/

...EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE TO BRING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY...

An early season heat wave will encompass all of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico through Monday. Temperatures are expected to
soar into the 100's each afternoon across many locations with the
hottest readings along the Pecos and Rio Grande Rivers. Cooler
temperatures are expected by the middle of next week.

*  If you plan to be outside in the heat, take plenty of breaks,
   especially during the hottest parts of the day

*  Wear light-colored and loose-fitting clothing

*  Drink plenty of water, even if you do not feel thirsty

*  Avoid alcoholic or caffeinated beverages

*  NEVER leave children in a car on even a moderately warm day as
   conditions in the car can quickly heat to unhealthy levels

*  Check on the elderly or other people at risk.