Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

555 
WWUS84 KMAF 270127
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
727 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2020

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...

NMZ116-TXZ270-271-270230-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-201227T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
627 PM MST Sat Dec 26 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR
LESS, 20FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER...

Strong winds have subsided across the area.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a shrtwv trof moving e-se across the Trans
Pecos and latest surface obs continue to show ridiculously dry air
in place across W TX/SE NM. A broad area of surface troffing will
remain in place today favoring a sw-w wind and warmer temps, at
least 5 degrees over yesterday. 20-25kt winds in 85h-7h layer do
support breezy/windy condition across the GDP Mtns today, a few
gusts of 50-60 mph are possible thru GDP Pass. A shrtwv trof
coming out the Rocky Mtns Sun will take the surface low e and a
cold front will follow. There are some differences wrt where the
front may end up during the day Sun, but it will generally bisect
the CWFA from SE NM-SE PB. As such the warmest temps will reside
along and s/w of the Pecos River. Even though mid-level flow will
be near zonal not much in the way of wind is expected Sun. Mon
conditions will gradually become windier and by Mon night/early
Tue AM many areas will be just plain windy in assocn with a
tightening gradient and a se wind Mon PM and a strong LLJ Mon
evening with the return of low-level mstr. This will all be ahead
of an approaching mid/upper-level low. The main low will fill as
it moves e of the 4-Corners region, but there are signs of a
secondary deepening of the trof across nrn MX later Tue PM. As it
is now the best chance PoPs will be across the n-ne PB Tue-early
Wed AM, most of the Trans Pecos will see no precip and we will
continue to keep a tight PoP gradient on the wrn edge. Windy
conditions are likely Tue across the Trans Pecos/SE NM, possibly
parts of the PB later in the day. Much cooler air will follow the
passage of the mid/upper-level trof on Wed with highs M40s-L50s in
most areas. A brief warm-up Thur ahead of the next mid-level trof
passage Fri resulting in the potential for cool, dry, and windy
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely dry conditions continue across the region today, with a
lee trough expected to result in increasing westerly to
southwesterly downsloping winds by this afternoon, yielding
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal for most. Winds across
the lower elevations, especially across the SE NM Plains and NW
Permian Basin, look to fall just shy of criteria, with 20ft wind
speeds around 15mph, intermittently higher. However, across the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains and Sacramento
Foothills, 20ft winds could reach upward of 20-30mph, and given min
RHs of 10-15% and well above normal temperatures, will result in
several hours of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Thus, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for
those areas, with elevated/near critical conditions also possible
across the adjacent plains.

Fire weather concerns decrease Sunday into Monday given lighter
winds and slowly increasing RHs ahead of an approaching system that
will impact the region late Monday through Tuesday. This system will
provide northern and eastern portions of the area with a chance of
rain showers, though amounts look to remain light. Despite the
increased moisture and potential for precipitation, fire weather
concerns ramp up again Tuesday afternoon as breezy to windy
conditions develop areawide, with the potential for widespread
elevated/near critical (and localized critical) fire weather
conditions, especially if rainfall amounts fail to materialize
and/or the boundary layer dries out quicker than currently modeled.
Thereafter, a cold front will move through the region, resulting in
cooler temperatures and lighter winds, mitigating additional fire
weather concerns. ERCs largely remain in the 70th-89th percentiles
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, however, expect ERCs to
continue to climb through next week with intermittent breezy to
windy conditions and very little chance of rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  37  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  31  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  38  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  41  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  34  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  29  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           66  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         67  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           71  31  72  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
227 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-270830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
227 AM CST Sat Dec 26 2020 /127 AM MST Sat Dec 26 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions will develop today across the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and Sacramento Foothills, where a
Red Flag Warning is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Intermittent elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
possible across portions of the area through early next week.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland