Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

709 
WWUS84 KMAF 142019
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY, REEVES COUNTY, AND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR
LESS, 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

.Above normal temperatures will combine with gusty westerly to
southwesterly downslope winds and cured fuels to result in
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon through early
evening.

NMZ116>119-TXZ045-046-050-059-060-067-270-271-273-274-150100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-201115T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chavez Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Andrews-Loving-Winkler-Ward-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-
219 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 /119 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT
OR LESS, 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

* AFFECTED AREA...Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains, 
  Chavez Plains, Eddy Plains, Lea, Guadalupe Mountains Above 
  7000 Feet, Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, and Eastern 
  Culberson County. 

* TIMING...Through early evening.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in the plains.
  West 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* RFTI...3 to 6 or near critical to critical.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Axis of upper trough moving across Mexico will merge with a stronger
trough swinging across the Rockies to produce windy conditions for
the area today.  As the trough moves east weak ridging will build
across the Western US early next week before a West Coast trough mid
to late week displaces the ridge eastward.

Looking at a high wind event for the mountains today as the trough
moves across.  Have upgraded the High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe
and Delaware Mountains today to a warning. Also based on 700 mb wind
of up to 45kts and 850mb wind of 30kts across SE NM, the Upper Trans
Pecos, and the Northwest Permian Basin have added a Wind Advisory
for those areas.

As of 08z low clouds cover the Permian Basin and parts of the Lower
Trans Pecos... these will erode from west to east as drier air
pushes in.  After yesterdays cool and cloudy conditions today will
be a big change as sunny skies and a warm west wind drives
temperatures back into the mid 70s to mid 80s.  This evening a weak
frontal boundary will sag into the region as a surface ridge builds
south knocking temps Sunday back to near normal.  The wind will
return to the south by late Sunday resulting in above normal temps
in the 70s again for Monday.  The rest of the week will remain warm
with above normal temperatures.  The next front is not expected
until next Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty, westerly winds are expected today across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas. These west winds will result in above normal
temperatures and will contribute to further drying of the fuels.
Minimum relative humidity values of 15 percent or less will be
widespread across the area. Winds of 20 mph or more will also be
widespread across the area with the highest wind speeds generally
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos as well as in northern Lea
County. RFTI values of 3 to 6 will be present today across Southeast
New Mexico and Culberson County eastward to Reeves County and the
western and northwestern Permian Basin. ERC values across these
areas will generally be 50 to 89 percent. This allowed for an
issuance of a Red Flag Warning across the above mentioned area for
this afternoon. Conditions improve on Sunday with lower wind speeds
and cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       80  36  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         89  49  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  83  43  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 69  40  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          74  30  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           82  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         83  37  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           84  35  69  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for
     Chavez Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CST /noon MST/ this afternoon to 7 PM
     CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Loving-
     Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains.

&&

80/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
156 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-142000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
156 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 /1256 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

High winds are possible in the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday morning
through Saturday afternoon.

Near critical and critical weather conditions are possible across
the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New Mexico Plains, and eastern
Culberson county Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland