Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

133 
WWUS84 KMAF 231935
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...AND CHAVES COUNTY FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER...

.Hot and dry conditions combined with very dry fuels will again
create critical fire weather conditions across the Guadalupe
Mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon through early
evening.

NMZ116>118-TXZ270-271-240200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200524T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chavez Plains-
Eddy Plains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
135 PM MDT Sat May 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS...SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS...
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...AND CHAVES COUNTY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* TIMING...this afternoon through early evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI... 3 to 4 or near critical.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough centered over the Intermountain West this morning will
stretch down to Mexico as the parent low moves up into MT tonight.
This trough will slowly progress east moving over NM Monday and then
the Panhandle early Tuesday. Models develop this trough into a cut
off low over TX on Tuesday and wobble it around the state through
the end of the week. This low could be a big rain producer for the
state but the actual track will determine who will see rain and who
will not. The latest model run tends to keep the low east of the CWA
while yesterday it was retrograding it back over West TX.  So will
have to continue to monitor its progress.

Friday was a down day for storms but more coverage expected today.
The dryline continues to be a focus for storm development and there
is a slight risk of severe wx today that has been expanded west now
reaching almost back to NM.  Also have similar slight risk for
eastern half area on Sunday.  Large hail and damaging wind will be
the main concern with these storms.  Have pops every period out
through next weekend but these will definitely favor the east. The
dryline is sharp this morning... as of 06z it separates dewpts in
the teens over the western counties with those in the 60s over the
SE counties.

Above normal temperatures expected again today but readings will be
on the decrease next several days with upper trough moving in.
Looking at a cold front Monday with a couple days of below normal
temperatures expected.  Guidance for Monday came in much cooler...
trended temps down but later shifts may need to lower it more.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions will be present today across much of the area
with relative humidity values in the single digits. Wind speeds are
expected to be near or above 20 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains and
northern Eddy County into Chavez County. These conditions along with
dry fuels and very high fire danger will create critical fire
weather. A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and early
evening for the Guadalupe Mountains, Eddy County plains, and into
Chaves County. Similar conditions may be present on Sunday across
the same area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  66  87  62 /  20  30  30  30
Carlsbad                       97  60  94  57 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         92  68  90  64 /  40  30  40  30
Fort Stockton                  93  66  89  62 /  30  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 88  62  86  54 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          94  61  89  57 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                          89  53  85  50 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  67  89  63 /  20  20  30  30
Odessa                         93  66  90  62 /  20  20  30  20
Wink                           97  65  93  60 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Chavez Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

&&

80/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-240830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
324 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020 /224 AM MDT Sat May 23 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight
across the Permian Basin, portions of southeast New Mexico, southward
to the Davis Mountains and Big Bend.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the
Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across the
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday across the
Guadalupe Mountains and Eddy County plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland