High Wind Watch 10, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently have patchy low clouds and fog over parts of the area...
expect these to expand to all TAF locations before morning. Some
airports may only see MVFR conditions but most will drop to IFR
with LIFR vsbys possible in dense fog. Conditions will return to
VFR by midday as S to SW wind picks up.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020/

DISCUSSION...

VIS sat imagery and sfc observations show that the fog/stratus that
has plagued the lower elevations the past few days is slow to burn
off this afternoon.  No clouds were noted over the highlands, and
mesoanalysis shows sbcapes in excess of 3000 J/kg over the srn Big
Bend.  Late this afternoon, models are in general agreement in
developing convection along a weak dryline south of the border,
which will then develop northward across the river this evening. Mid-
lvl lapse rates in excess of 8C/km along the river, as well as
increasing deep-lyr shear ahead of an approaching 250mb jet, will
result in a minimal risk of svr activity over the Big Bend Area into
this evening.  Farther north, we've continued a mention of fog, as
conditions look similar to the past few nights.

Tuesday, the trough off the west coast near the Bay Area will is
forecast to split in two, and send the srn shortwave into Baja del
Norte by 18Z Wed.  This will ramp up SW flow aloft over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico, bringing westerly flow onto the higher
terrain.  The NAM12 develops a mtn wave over the Guadalupes by late
afternoon, and we've issued a watch for marginal high winds there
for a few hours.  This increased westerly flow will also begin
sharpening up a dryline, where convection is likely to develop
during the afternoon.  40-50kts of deep lyr shear and steep mid-lvl
lapse rates will continue the threat of severe cells, everywhere
east of KMAF, aided by a 40kt LLJ to maintain moisture after dark.

Wednesday, the srn trough begins ejecting NE thru the Four Corners,
w/the 250mb jet over the region increasing 0-6km bulk shear to 70-80
kts over the area.  This will result in another bout of severe
convection...perhaps our best chances at precip this forecast.  High
winds will be likely in the Guadalupes, but we'll defer this to
later shifts.

As the trough ejects into the Central Plains Thu, a Pac front will
scour moisture east, making for a dry, windy day across the region.
Unfortunately, a strong cold front is forecast to follow the Pac
front Thu night, taking temps well-blo normal thru the weekend.
During this time, SW flow aloft will allow minor disturbances to
move thru the area over the weekend, resulting in mostly isolated
convection for the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  76  54  71 /  50  40  90   0
Carlsbad                       51  75  47  66 /  10  50  50   0
Dryden                         60  80  57  82 /  80  40  50   0
Fort Stockton                  57  80  53  75 /  30  40  60   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  64  40  55 /  10  60  50   0
Hobbs                          51  72  46  65 /  10  50  70   0
Marfa                          49  73  43  69 /  20  40  50   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  77  52  70 /  30  50  90   0
Odessa                         56  77  52  69 /  30  50  80   0
Wink                           55  80  51  71 /  10  40  70   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-171915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020 /109 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible through tonight across the
Trans Pecos including the Davis Mountains, Big Bend area and the
Lower Trans Pecos. Storms may be accompanied by frequent lightning,
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

Patchy areas of fog will be possible across much of the area Tuesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday across most all areas, especially the Permian Basin. Severe
storms may be accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and an isolated tornado.

It will turn very windy Tuesday afternoon across the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains and a high wind watch is in
effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland