High Wind Warning 58, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

118 
WWUS74 KMAF 301036
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
436 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

TXZ271-310300-
/O.EXT.KMAF.HW.W.0058.201230T1200Z-201231T0300Z/
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Guadalupe Mountains NP and Pine Springs
336 AM MST Wed Dec 30 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Pass.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile
  vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution if you must drive, as the winds will result in
hazardous travel conditions for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/maf

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1133 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will generally be gusty out of the south to west this
afternoon. Light and variable winds will develop this evening then
will become gusty out of the north around 12z to 15z Wednesday
morning. Low ceilings are expected to develop beginning around
12z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020/

DISCUSSION...

.POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

After a fairly quiescent weather pattern the last several days, a
big change is on the way, first with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms late this evening and tonight, followed by a winter
storm Wednesday into Thursday, a reminder that it is indeed still
December. Low level moisture has already markedly increased
across the area, evidenced by dewpoints climbing into the 50s and
increasingly widespread low clouds, with the potential for fog
and drizzle/light rain through this morning. These clouds will
hang in through the morning, before eroding from west to east this
afternoon. How far east the cloud deck erodes is still uncertain,
though clearing should at least make it into the central Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Temperatures will rebound over
Monday's highs, with highs this afternoon in the 60s to lower 70s
for most. A potent upper low has been making its way toward the
region the last few days, with associated southwesterly flow aloft
and southerly surface flow yielding our increased moisture, with
a dryline progged to develop this afternoon INVOF a line from
Seagraves to Imperial to Longfellow. As mid- and upper level lift
overspread the region ahead of the approaching low, expect
thunderstorms to develop along the dryline as it surges east after
sunset this evening, mainly across the Permian Basin down toward
the Stockton Plateau. While instability will largely be lacking,
some of the stronger storms could produce small hail, gusty winds,
and locally heavy rainfall before moving into the Concho Valley
and Big Country.

In the wake of the thunderstorms this evening, focus then shifts
to winter weather, with a strong cold front progged to move
through the region during the early morning hours Wednesday. This
front will be accompanied by gusty northeasterly winds, and given
timing, will likely result in falling temperatures through the day
for most locations along/north of I-10, with the day's high
temperatures realized during the morning hours. Temperatures
falling through the 30s with gusty northerly to northeasterly
winds will result in wind chill values in the 20s for most
locations by late afternoon/early evening, with the winds also
resulting in strong gap winds through Guadalupe Pass, where a High
Wind Watch has been issued. The aforementioned front will progress
south of the Rio Grande by early Wednesday afternoon, while
simultaneously, the upper trough driving the weather pattern will
continue to across Sonora and Chihuahua MX, developing an
increasingly positive tilt before transitioning to a cutoff low
Wednesday evening.

Models continue to deepen and slow this system, thus potential
precipitation/snowfall amounts continue to increase. Given the
depth of the cold air in the post-frontal environment,
fortunately, the window for mixed precipitation looks to be
small, with the dominant precipitation type expected to start as
rain, then transition to snow fairly quickly as temperatures fall.
This transition is likely to occur over SE NM/the Guadalupe Mtns
southward to the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau Wednesday morning,
gradually expanding east and south through the afternoon. As the
left front quadrant of a 100-115kt 3h jet rounds the base of the
trough Wednesday afternoon/evening, expect precipitation intensity
to increase during this time, first over southwestern portions of
the forecast area, then continuing through the day on Thursday as
the low pivots and begins to trek northeastward. There remains
uncertainty as to the path of the low, and thus, the locations of
deformation zone snow banding that will occur. Currently,
consensus indicates one area of potential banding from the Davis
Mountains east across the Stockton Plateau, as well as an area
from the Lower Trans Pecos across the SE/E Permian Basin, where
sleet may also briefly mix in with snow. The NAM is the outlier in
this situation, trending further west with higher snowfall
amounts, with the GFS/ECMWF/NAM all differing on just how much
accumulation can be expected. Despite this, believe it is not out
of the question for some locations to receive upwards of 8 to 10
inches of snow from this storm, particularly where any convective
banding may occur. As the low moves northeast across Texas toward
the Red River Valley Thursday night, expect precipitation to end
fairly quickly from southwest to northeast, with lingering snow
showers possible for the NE Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling
Plains through about midnight CST Thursday night. A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for much of West and Southwest Texas
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening, though the details
of the forecast are likely to change over the next 24 hours as
this situation continues to evolve.

In the wake of the storm, very cold temperatures are possible early
Friday morning, especially in areas with snow cover. Thereafter,
temperatures slowly moderate Friday through the upcoming weekend,
with highs in the 60s expected for most by Sunday. A weaker trough
is progged to pass through the region in northwest flow aloft
Friday night/Saturday with little fanfare, given the lack of
moisture available. Flow aloft will then transition to quasizonal
by Sunday through early next week, maintaining above normal
temperatures and dry conditions as we embark on the journey into
2021.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  40  43  28 /  20  50  60  40
Carlsbad                       66  35  45  22 /   0  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  48  55  34 /  10  10  50  80
Fort Stockton                  75  40  42  27 /   0  10  60  70
Guadalupe Pass                 56  29  38  25 /   0  20  40  10
Hobbs                          67  33  37  24 /  10  20  40  20
Marfa                          70  31  34  24 /   0  10  60  70
Midland Intl Airport           67  39  42  27 /  10  30  50  50
Odessa                         68  39  42  24 /  10  30  50  50
Wink                           71  37  41  29 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
305 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-300915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
305 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 /205 AM MST Tue Dec 29 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A High Wind Watch is in effect for Guadalupe Pass Wednesday.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for most of West Texas from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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