Tornado Warning 18, NWS Little Rock, AR

167 
WWUS54 KLZK 200116
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
816 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARC029-115-200125-
/O.CAN.KLZK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200320T0200Z/
Conway AR-Pope AR-
816 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CONWAY AND EAST CENTRAL POPE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3577 9247 3556 9233 3546 9271 3546 9282
      3547 9285 3555 9285 3555 9281 3559 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 235DEG 34KT 3552 9281 

$$

ARC141-200200-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200320T0200Z/
Van Buren AR-
816 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
VAN BUREN COUNTY...
        
At 815 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 7 miles south of Dabney, or 20 miles west of Clinton, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton...                        Beverage Town...
Alread...                         Brock Creek Campground...
Botkinburg...                     Rupert...
Crabtree...                       Scotland...
Mountain Man Trailhead...         Culpepper...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3577 9247 3556 9233 3546 9271 3546 9282
      3547 9285 3555 9285 3555 9281 3559 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 235DEG 34KT 3552 9281 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Cavanaugh

829 
WWUS54 KLZK 200127
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
827 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARC141-200200-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200320T0200Z/
Van Buren AR-
827 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
VAN BUREN COUNTY...
    
At 827 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Dabney, or 12 miles west of Clinton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton...                        Alread...
Rupert...                         Crabtree...
Botkinburg...                     

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3558 9234 3554 9270 3557 9273 3563 9273
      3577 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 237DEG 36KT 3559 9268 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Cavanaugh

711 
WWUS54 KLZK 200142
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
842 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARC141-200200-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200320T0200Z/
Van Buren AR-
842 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY...
    
At 841 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Rocky Hill, or near Clinton, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton...                        Crabtree...
Botkinburg...                     

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3562 9237 3558 9257 3562 9261 3568 9262
      3577 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 245DEG 32KT 3564 9255 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

44

272 
WWUS54 KLZK 200156
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
856 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARC141-200206-
/O.EXP.KLZK.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200320T0200Z/
Van Buren AR-
856 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 900 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3562 9237 3558 9257 3562 9261 3568 9262
      3577 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 244DEG 35KT 3570 9239 

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
641 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.AVIATION...
Showers/storms will move through the area tonight, with conditions
restricted locally to mvfr or ifr within areas of precipitation.
After precip diminishes later tonight, expect low clouds to fill
back in. Conditions will improve toward the end of the period.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 213 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Showers will continue moving through the state this afternoon,
becoming more defined along a line of convection later this evening.
A 500mb wave with strong vorticity advection will move northeast
through Kansas and Missouri this evening, bringing colder air aloft
to the southern Plains.

Strong surface winds out of the S/SW have been carrying warm, moist
air into the state, increasing surface temperatures into the 70s and
dewpoints into the 60s and lower 70s.

Winds have been observed up to 30mph today in parts of the state. A
low level jet will continue to bring increased windspeeds through
this evening.

Surface heating has been slow, due to widespread cloud cover,
however, we're starting to see some breaks in the clouds over
western Arkansas. If this trend continues, surface temperatures will
warm to the mid 70s to lower 80s, enhancing surface-based CAPE. If
cloud cover persists, highs will be just a little lower, in the
low/mid 70s to lower 80s.

A line of convection will move through the state today and could
become severe through this evening. Forecast soundings show SBCAPE
>1000-2000 J/kg, with moderate shear values favoring supercells and
bowing thunderstorms. Therefore, damaging winds will be the main
threat, though isolated large hail and tornadoes will also be
possible.

Flash flooding will also be a concern today as these storms move
through the area. Flooding is more due to the saturated ground from
recent rainfall than it is from total forecast accumulation from the
storms tonight, which will range from 1/4" to 1 1/2" with higher
amounts possible in severe storms.

The cold front associated with this system will lower temperatures
tonight through Saturday morning, with lows Friday morning in the
mid 40s in NW AR, mid to upper 60s in central and southern AR.

High pressure will build into the region following this system and
winds will shift to a more Nerly direction. Temperatures will only
increase to the lower 50s to lower 70s Friday afternoon. Saturday
morning lows will drop to the lower 30s (subfreezing) in Nern AR,
dropping to the 40s elsewhere in the state. Highs Sat in the lower
50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The extended period will remain largely unsettled as several
shortwave troughs and weak surface boundaries sweep through the
region. Westerly flow aloft will be in place Saturday night,
becoming slightly more southerly through Sunday as a weak wave moves
over the state. This, coupled with another shortwave trough moving
through the central plains on Tuesday, will bring rain chances back
to the forecast through early portions of next week. Southerly
surface winds will return to the state late Monday, which will help
advect warmer and more moist air into the region. This will result
in rather high PWAT values across Arkansas, and could bring
additional heavy rain to already saturated soils on Tuesday.
Therefore, we will continue to monitor for the risk of flash
flooding as well as any impacts to already flooded rivers.

Temperatures will show quite the warming trend as lows on Saturday
in the 30s and 40s and highs in the lower 50s and 60s warm nearly 20
degrees through the end of next week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Polk-Pope-Scott-
Searcy-Yell.

&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon through
late this evening. Some storms could become strong to severe with
damaging winds and tornadoes the main concerns. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible across mainly western and northern
locations, and some localized flash flooding could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Rain will continue over southern Arkansas on Friday before exiting
toward the Gulf Coast. It will turn much cooler, with a freeze
likely in parts of the Ozark Mountains Saturday morning.

Unsettled weather is in the forecast Sunday through Wednesday, with
scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder at times. Even so,
impacts will be minor. No severe weather is expected, and any flash
flooding will be localized. Rivers in southern and eastern sections
of the state will remain elevated.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed Thursday Evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
716 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E VALLEY SPRINGS      36.15N 92.94W
03/19/2020                   BOONE              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO A HOUSE AND DOWNED POWER LINES
            EAST OF VALLEY SPRINGS.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
723 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EVERTON                 36.16N 92.91W
03/19/2020                   BOONE              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO A HOME IN EVERTON.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
751 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW BRUNO              36.20N 92.83W
03/19/2020                   MARION             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED AT BRUNO-PYATT SCHOOL.

&&

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
803 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N MOUNTAIN HOME       36.38N 92.38W
03/19/2020  E68 MPH          BAXTER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

61