Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
641 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.AVIATION...
Showers/storms will move through the area tonight, with conditions
restricted locally to mvfr or ifr within areas of precipitation.
After precip diminishes later tonight, expect low clouds to fill
back in. Conditions will improve toward the end of the period.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 213 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Showers will continue moving through the state this afternoon,
becoming more defined along a line of convection later this evening.
A 500mb wave with strong vorticity advection will move northeast
through Kansas and Missouri this evening, bringing colder air aloft
to the southern Plains.

Strong surface winds out of the S/SW have been carrying warm, moist
air into the state, increasing surface temperatures into the 70s and
dewpoints into the 60s and lower 70s.

Winds have been observed up to 30mph today in parts of the state. A
low level jet will continue to bring increased windspeeds through
this evening.

Surface heating has been slow, due to widespread cloud cover,
however, we're starting to see some breaks in the clouds over
western Arkansas. If this trend continues, surface temperatures will
warm to the mid 70s to lower 80s, enhancing surface-based CAPE. If
cloud cover persists, highs will be just a little lower, in the
low/mid 70s to lower 80s.

A line of convection will move through the state today and could
become severe through this evening. Forecast soundings show SBCAPE
>1000-2000 J/kg, with moderate shear values favoring supercells and
bowing thunderstorms. Therefore, damaging winds will be the main
threat, though isolated large hail and tornadoes will also be
possible.

Flash flooding will also be a concern today as these storms move
through the area. Flooding is more due to the saturated ground from
recent rainfall than it is from total forecast accumulation from the
storms tonight, which will range from 1/4" to 1 1/2" with higher
amounts possible in severe storms.

The cold front associated with this system will lower temperatures
tonight through Saturday morning, with lows Friday morning in the
mid 40s in NW AR, mid to upper 60s in central and southern AR.

High pressure will build into the region following this system and
winds will shift to a more Nerly direction. Temperatures will only
increase to the lower 50s to lower 70s Friday afternoon. Saturday
morning lows will drop to the lower 30s (subfreezing) in Nern AR,
dropping to the 40s elsewhere in the state. Highs Sat in the lower
50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The extended period will remain largely unsettled as several
shortwave troughs and weak surface boundaries sweep through the
region. Westerly flow aloft will be in place Saturday night,
becoming slightly more southerly through Sunday as a weak wave moves
over the state. This, coupled with another shortwave trough moving
through the central plains on Tuesday, will bring rain chances back
to the forecast through early portions of next week. Southerly
surface winds will return to the state late Monday, which will help
advect warmer and more moist air into the region. This will result
in rather high PWAT values across Arkansas, and could bring
additional heavy rain to already saturated soils on Tuesday.
Therefore, we will continue to monitor for the risk of flash
flooding as well as any impacts to already flooded rivers.

Temperatures will show quite the warming trend as lows on Saturday
in the 30s and 40s and highs in the lower 50s and 60s warm nearly 20
degrees through the end of next week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight FOR Baxter-Boone-
Fulton-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Polk-Pope-Scott-
Searcy-Yell.

&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon through
late this evening. Some storms could become strong to severe with
damaging winds and tornadoes the main concerns. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible across mainly western and northern
locations, and some localized flash flooding could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Rain will continue over southern Arkansas on Friday before exiting
toward the Gulf Coast. It will turn much cooler, with a freeze
likely in parts of the Ozark Mountains Saturday morning.

Unsettled weather is in the forecast Sunday through Wednesday, with
scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder at times. Even so,
impacts will be minor. No severe weather is expected, and any flash
flooding will be localized. Rivers in southern and eastern sections
of the state will remain elevated.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed Thursday Evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.