Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
656 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.AVIATION...11/12Z TAF CYCLE

Complex of storms wl cont to affect mainly NRN and CNTRL AR
through the morning hours. VFR conds wl quickly drop to MVFR/IFR
were storms impact fcst sites. Expect VFR/MVFR conds to prevail
ovr most of the FA for the rest of the PD as unsettled conds
persist. Low clouds and SCTD SHRA/TSRA wl cont into this evening.
/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 425 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

Early this mrng, sfc low pres was centered ovr NRN OK, with a warm
front extending SEWD to the Red River and near the AR/LA BRDR. As
fcst, convection has formed overnight along and N of this bndry.
Most of the activity has been concentrated ovr KS, but sctd storms
have also been forming ovr ERN OK and SRN MO. Hi-Res model data cont
to indc the complex of storms wl eventually track SEWD into N AR
arnd daybreak and into CNTRL/ERN AR toward late mrng and into the
aftn hrs.

Initially, with the warm fnt still to the S of the FA this mrng,
large hail wl be the main concern with the stronger storms. Later
today, the convection wl bcm move sfc based as the activity
interacts with the NWD movg warm fnt. Damaging winds wl bcm the
primary threat, along with an isolated tornado or two. The bulk of
the convection wl shift to the SE of the FA late today and this
evening.

Overall rainfall coverage wl diminish tngt into much of Thu as the
frnt bndry meanders near the AR/MO BRDR and upper lvl support wl be
minimal, although SCTD showers/storm cannot be out. Later on Thu,
the quasi-zonal flow aloft wl bring another upper lvl impulse toward
the region. An assocd sfc low wl track to our N Thu ngt, with yet
another round of convection expected to affect much of AR as a new
CDFNT moves into the area. Strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out
mainly Thu evening. The CDFNT wl eventually stall out once again ovr
S AR, with bext rain chances on Fri focused in the VCNTY of the
bndry. Unfortunately, the unsettled pattern wl persist beyond this
PD.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Tuesday

No significant changes to the long term forecast...The period begins
with subtle H500 troughing in a larger scale ridging pattern over
the Cntrl Great Plains, and a sfc low positioned over S/Wrn OK. A
stationary front draped Ewrd across Cntrl AR will be the focus for
widespread precipitation and a few thunderstorms through the
weekend. By Sun, the boundary will transition to a cold front, and
sag Swrd through the state, and driving rain chances along the
leading edge. The front will quickly mix out though, with no
significant temperature pattern changes.

By the beginning of the new work week, upper-level ridging will
remain across the Cntrl US, with a potent upper low pivoting Swrd
out of the PAC NW. Weak upper-level perturbations are forecast to
quickly progress through the S/Wrly flow, and will promote a stalled
region of low sfc pressure on the Wrn periphery of the Natural
State. Srly sfc winds and modest ascent associated with a stationary
boundary along the AR/MO border will once again promote an axis of
widespread precip over the region through Wed. Long range precip
guidance is progging accumulations of a few inches over a couple
days, so flash flooding chances remain minimal, however higher water
along rivers, depending on where the heaviest amounts fall may
become prevalent.

Through the end of the period, rain chances persist for most of the
fcst area. Some discrepancies become apparent in the sfc mass
responses associated with an advancing upper trough from the S/W,
with the GFS painting a more progressive and fast cold front, while
the ECMWF lags behind with the front approaching later at the end of
the week. Nevertheless, sfc convergence will be in place along a
stalled sfc boundary in conjunction with an advancing upper trough,
so to the dismay of many Arkansans, rain will remain the primary
talking point through the end of the period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
517 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
517 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly northern and central
Arkansas today. Some strong and severe storms will be possible.
Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the primary
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday, with a few strong to severe
storms possible, particularly over northeast Arkansas. Locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern toward the end of the week. Currently,
flash flooding potential remains low, but some localized high water
issues may occur.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later this morning into this
afternoon.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

44/232

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

ARZ012-013-021>023-111200-
Pope AR-Searcy AR-Johnson AR-Newton AR-Van Buren AR-
635 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JOHNSON...SOUTHWESTERN
SEARCY...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...WEST CENTRAL VAN BUREN AND NORTHERN
POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

At 635 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodland, or near Clarksville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Lamar...
Dillen...                         Woodland...
Broomfield...                     Moore...
Solo...                           Smyrna...
Bertha...                         Holman...
Rosetta...                        Spadra...
Ben Hur...                        Fort Douglas...
Lutherville...                    Long Pool Campground...
Haw Creek Falls Campground...     Mountain Man Trailhead...
Lurton...                         Simpson...

LAT...LON 3590 9296 3554 9276 3540 9343 3543 9343
      3543 9344 3542 9347 3541 9348 3561 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 246DEG 30KT 3555 9346

230

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

ARZ012-021-111215-
Johnson AR-Newton AR-
643 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 643 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pettigrew, or 20 miles northeast of Ozark, moving southeast at 30
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville...                    Woodland...
Spadra...                         Rosetta...
Devils Knob...                    Salus...
Catalpa...                        Harmony...
Fort Douglas...                   Friley...
Yale...                           Ozone...
Fallsville...                     Haw Creek Falls Campground...
Oark...                           Wolf Pen Campground...
Arbaugh...                        Hillcrest in Johnson County...
Mineral Springs Recreation Area...
Union City...

LAT...LON 3577 9370 3576 9352 3582 9352 3573 9317
      3542 9349 3563 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 317DEG 27KT 3574 9364

230

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
658 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

ARZ021>023-031-111230-
Pope AR-Johnson AR-Van Buren AR-Conway AR-
658 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...NORTH CENTRAL CONWAY AND CENTRAL POPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 657 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dover, or 13 miles north of Russellville, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Atkins...
Pottsville...                     Dover...
Hector...                         Jerusalem...
Happy Bend...                     Cleveland...
Broomfield...                     Taral...
Lake Dardanelle...                Appleton...
Augsburg...                       Long Pool Campground...
Pleasant Valley in Pope County... Gum Log...
Economy...                        Macedonia in Conway County...
Caglesville...                    Moreland...

LAT...LON 3540 9331 3557 9323 3545 9266 3518 9289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 292DEG 42KT 3546 9318

230

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
719 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

ARZ032-039-044-111300-
Pulaski AR-Perry AR-Faulkner AR-
719 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHERN
FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

At 719 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mayflower, or near Conway, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conway...                         Sherwood...
Jacksonville...                   Little Rock AFB...
Vilonia...                        Mayflower...
Pickles Gap...                    Gibson...
Toad Suck...                      Gravel Ridge...
Olmstead...                       Little Italy...
Marche...                         Holland...
Bigelow...                        Fourche...
Hamlet...                         Saltillo...
Macon...                          Otto...

LAT...LON 3495 9264 3509 9260 3512 9255 3511 9254
      3511 9252 3513 9251 3516 9212 3501 9212
      3501 9210 3485 9209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 292DEG 41KT 3500 9248

230

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