Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

.AVIATION...

VFR conds are prevailing this morning at all terminals except
KPBF and KADF, there a mix of IFR/LIFR conds are presently
ongoing. Conds will improve to MVFR/VFR later this morning.
SHRA/TSRA will increase in coverage over central and Srn terminals
today. An additional complex of SHRA/TSRA will move across the
state from NW to SE late this morning into the afternoon. Conds
outside of areas of precipitation should remain VFR with MVFR
CIGs/VIS at locations experiencing SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

Quiet weather was ongoing across the CWA this morning with only a
few clouds noted. This however was not the case over portions of
the Nrn Plains, were a well defined MCS was in progress moving
clockwise around the periphery of a large scale ridge centered
over the Srn Rockies. This MCS will continue to pinwheel around
the upper high this morning and track SEwrd within NWrly flow. The
convective activity is expected to diminish in intensity and
coverage somewhat during the early morning hours as it reaches
NWrn AR.

Additional precipitation is expected to develop today along an axis
extending NW to SE across NW, C, and SErn portions of the state.
Hi-Res CAM guidance continue resolve weak forcing for ascent
along this well defined theta E axis. During the day today, the
remnants of the MCS is progged to drop into C/W-C AR. The
combination of the moisture axis coupled with the remains of the
MCS will bring greater PoP chances in the form of widespread
showers and thunderstorms to areas that have remained fairly dry
over the last couple of days. Overall, SWrn sections of the state
look the remain the driest, which should be welcome after several
days of heavy rainfall across this portion of the state.

Convection should diminish shortly after sunset this evening.
Upper flow will remain highly amplified, with NW flow noted over
AR over the next week. This flow regime will be favorable to
passing upper level disturbances interacting with abundant low
level moisture to trigger showers and thunderstorms nearly each
day across the region. In some cases, MCS's are expected to
develop. If MCS's do develop, strong damaging winds will be the
primary thunderstorm hazard.

Temperatures will be on a slow uptick as surface high pressure
approaches the region. High temperatures should reach the mid 90s
by Friday. Heat indices will range from about 100 to 105 degrees.
A few locations may briefly exceed these values, however with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day, confidence
is not high that values exceeding 105 will last for too long.
Thus, held off on heat advisory advisory headlines for now on
Friday. Either way, conditions will be hot and humid thanks to
surface SWrly flow straight off the Gulf of Mexico.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

At the beginning of the period, the longwave pattern will feature a
ridge centered over the southern Rockies, with troughing over the
eastern seaboard. At the surface, a frontal boundary, or remnants of
a boundary, will be over Arkansas. As a disturbances moves around
the periphery of the ridge, it will interact with the boundary and
allow for isolated/scattered showers and storms through the weekend.

Appreciable moisture, however, will shut off by the beginning of the
work week, as the aforementioned ridge expands and drifts eastward.
The remnant boundary will dissipate or be pushed back to the north.

So, this being said, you know what that means...

Southerly flow will keep Gulf moisture moving into the region. The
combination of heat associated with the ridge and high humidity will
create dangerous heat indices, and this will necessitate a
continuation of any heat-related headlines.

While the ridge will make for hot weather and rather uncomfortable
conditions, this warmth is not what I would call "record-breaking".
Sure, we may see a stray record max or high min here and there, but
by and large, the records for most longer term stations in Arkansas
show max records mostly in the 105-115 range next week, and high
mins in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s. I wouldn't totally rule out
a triple-digit reading here or there (particularly in the west), but
widespread 100s seem unlikely just yet.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...JONES

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
358 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
358 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
afternoon and early evening. While the overall threat for severe
weather should remain low...a few strong to briefly severe
thunderstorms could be seen. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds will be the main threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday Through Wednesday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
weekend...with the best chances during the afternoon heating each
day. While the overall threat for severe weather will remain
low...any thunderstorm could become briefly strong...with gusty
winds the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen
with these showers and thunderstorms as well.

Temperatures will be gradually warming throughout the weekend
into the upcoming work week. Heat index values will also be
increasing over time...with heat index values approaching and
potentially exceeding 100 degrees. Heat index values may even warm
to or above 105 degrees for some areas...especially by this
weekend.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

230/57

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ARZ004-005-091715-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-
1145 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MARION AND CENTRAL
BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cartney, or 9 miles south of Mountain Home, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norfork...                        Salesville...
Briarcliff...                     Advance...
Norfork Dam...                    Cartney...
Shipp...                          Herron...
Lion Hill...                      Buffalo City...
Buford...                         Lone Rock...
Push Mountian...                  Norfork Lake...

LAT...LON 3627 9218 3606 9226 3606 9230 3604 9231
      3617 9251 3628 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 287DEG 7KT 3620 9242

53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ARZ021-022-030-031-037>039-041-091815-
Pope AR-Johnson AR-Perry AR-Scott AR-Logan AR-Yell AR-Conway AR-
Montgomery AR-
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LOGAN...WESTERN PERRY...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHWESTERN CONWAY...EAST CENTRAL SCOTT...
YELL...NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN POPE COUNTIES UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

At 1231 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lake Dardanelle to near Danville to near
Stonehouse Recreation Area. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Danville...
Dardanelle...                     Atkins...
Pottsville...                     Lamar...
Ola...                            London...
Oppelo...                         Knoxville...
Adona...                          Blue Mountain...
Sequoya Park...                   Lake Dardanelle State Park...
Petit Jean River WMA...           Midway in Logan County...
Mosley...                         Taral...
Holman...                         Stonehouse Recreation Area...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and western Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3523 9361 3553 9336 3511 9275 3484 9312
      3477 9336 3477 9339 3476 9340 3471 9357
      3510 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 313DEG 34KT 3530 9320 3511 9346 3502 9376

65

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ARZ004-013-091830-
Marion AR-Searcy AR-
1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEARCY AND SOUTHWESTERN MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Duff, or 8 miles northwest of Marshall, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall...                       Thola...
Marsena...                        Duff...
Point Peter...                    Maumee...
Eula...                           Elberta...
Watts...                          Leslie...
St. Joe...                        Pindall...
Gilbert...                        Zach...
Canaan...                         Morning Star...
Silver Hill...                    Maumee Crossing...
Landis...                         Woolum Recreation Area...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
north central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3615 9288 3607 9242 3579 9243 3579 9263
      3578 9263 3588 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 285DEG 26KT 3600 9273

65

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