Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered SHRA continues over most areas this morning with the
highest probability of RA/TS across western terminals by
afternoon. Not very confident in coverage through today, however,
so only included VCTS mention for now. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
after around 29/15-16Z except in heavier RA or TS. S/SW winds will
remain elevated through the early evening and cigs should trend
downward late in the period from W to E.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 329 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

A broad area of showers with occasional lightning continues
pushing northeast across the area early this morning as small-
scale perturbations translate through southwesterly flow aloft.
Another area of rain is developing across the ArkLaTex and will
push in from the southwest over the next several hours.

Additional perturbations will support showers/storms through
today and abundant cloud cover and precipitation will help limit
max temps with readings in the 80s to low-90s most likely by
afternoon. Despite a slightly cooler temperature forecast this
afternoon, high humidity will keep us quite soupy and this will
be most apparent during the overnight hours where lows in the 70s
will be common. Rain coverage will be less Tuesday and temps will
climb a few degrees higher with heat indices in the 90s to around
100 degrees by afternoon. A couple of strong to marginally severe
storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is unlikely.
Torrential downpours may lead to localized flooding.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Monday

Probably one of the hottest periods of time so far this year is
expected from Wednesday through Friday this week. Deep ridging will
expand from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region during
this timeframe. Sfc temps may climb into the upper 90s F,
particularly on Thursday. Accompanying these temps will be Td values
in the 70s F thanks to persistent SWrly flow at the sfc. This will
lead to a potentially dangerous combination of heat and humidity
which could cause heat indices to approach 110 across some parts of
the forecast area. At the least, heat advisories may be needed at
times through the end of the week.

While ridging will remain the dominant feature for much of the
country's weather in the coming days, it will become focused a bit
further west by the weekend. This will provide either H500 troughing
or the potential for a cutoff low to progress southward and provide
rain chances to eastern portions of the state. Additionally, a
remnant sfc boundary may accompany the upper level feature which
could provide more of a N-NErly component to the sfc flow. This
could help temps return to more reasonable levels, more like upper
80s/lower 90s F. But, it does look like the ridge will remain
dominant over the middle of the country and will continue to impact
portions of the state beyond the 7-day forecast.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...COOPER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
339 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
339 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and storms are expected again today into tonight. While a
strong to marginally severe storm is possible, widespread severe
weather is not expected. Winds will be breezy again through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

The threat for organized severe weather will remain low through much
of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected daily
with the best chances during the afternoon through early evening
hours across eastern Arkansas. While a few stronger storms can not
be ruled out, the greater concern will be locally heavy rain
associated with any thunderstorms that do develop.

With abundant moisture in place at the surface and temperatures
expected to climb into the 90s, heat indices are expected to exceed
105 across parts of the state from Wednesday through Friday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Cooper/67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
914 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

ARZ041-052-291445-
Pike AR-Montgomery AR-
914 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 913 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albert Pike Recreation Area, or 14 miles east of Umpire, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Ida...                      Glenwood...
Norman...                         Daisy...
Mimosa...                         Mauldin...
Albert Pike Recreation Area...    Black Springs...
Salem in Pike County...           Lodi...
Langley...                        Fancyhill...
Hopper...                         New Hope in Pike County...
Caddo Gap...

LAT...LON 3438 9394 3462 9368 3431 9349 3419 9390
      3419 9392 3422 9393 3426 9392 3427 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 227DEG 21KT 3435 9382

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

ARZ039-042-054-291630-
Hot Spring AR-Perry AR-Garland AR-
1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PERRY...GARLAND AND
NORTH CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

At 1040 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meyers, or 13 miles west of Hot Springs, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hot Springs...                    Hot Springs Village...
Mountain Pine...                  Hot Springs Memorial Field...
Meyers...                         Jessieville...
Lake Ouachita State Park...       Rockwell...
Hot Springs National Park...      Avant...
Oaklawn Racetrack...              Crystal Springs Landing...
Sunshine...                       Mountain Valley...
Royal...                          Lena Landing Rec Area...
Gulpha Gorge...                   Hamilton...
Hempwallace...                    Pearcy...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 9340 3482 9315 3444 9285 3440 9340
      3452 9341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 245DEG 19KT 3453 9329

53