Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
218 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Well, the calendar shows that it is June (Father's Day in fact) and
given the frequency of MCS activity across the state, the weather
agrees... The forecast area will remain under the same overall
pattern through Tuesday which will provide more of the same.

H500 low well north of the area will continue to provide W-NWrly
flow over the region and a favorable path for shortwaves to traverse
the state. Remnants of this morning's MCS activity which originated
over central Oklahoma and the Red River area have taken nearly all
shift to work their way into the forecast area. The remnant MCV will
continue to slowly work its way eastward, providing adequate lift
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Through the evening hours, the most coverage will likely be across
western and southern parts of the state.

Later this afternoon and evening, as yet another shortwave begins to
traverse the NW flow aloft and a cold front begins a southerly push,
more severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of
the Central/Southern Plains. This activity is expected to merge into
a line and by Monday morning another likely MCS will be arriving
from the NW.

As this MCS dissipates it will likely leave a remnant boundary which
will sink south throughout the day. In addition to continued chances
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly
northern Arkansas throughout the day, additional thunderstorms may
develop from western Arkansas across to the TX Panhandle Region. A
threat for severe wx will exist along this corridor as storms develop
and move south. A damaging wind and hail threat will exist from
Monday evening through Tuesday morning, with the western half of
the state most favored.

As clear as this sounds, given the number of mesoscale boundaries in
place as well as the need for atmospheric recovery at times, things
could change. Additionally, as was seen this morning across
central/southern Oklahoma into north Texas, with little steering
flow in place (where MCS activity is expected) locally very heavy
rainfall is possible. So, the general idea, that "Arkansas" could
pick up a few inches of rain over the next 5-7 days could be
thrown out the window in about an hour's time given the potential
for areas of slow moving efficient rainfall producing
thunderstorms.

Otherwise, given the cloud cover and overall precip coverage through
Tuesday, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler.

Cheers to all the dads out there, happy Father's Day.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Active weather remains prevalent for much of the long term period.
Upper lvl troughing will begin to shift Ewrd, leaving AR under a
N/Wrly upper flow regime. At the sfc, anticyclonic flow will drive a
cold front into the Srn US, with the front likely clearing the state
by Wed morning and stalling along the AR/LA border. As the bndry
moves through, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
early Wed morning. Behind the FROPA, temps will be below seasonal
values around the mid-80s Wed afternoon...not bad for late June!

The "cooldown" will be short lived though, high pressure will quickly
translate Ewrd Thurs, and drive Srly flow, aiding in WAA/moisture
advection. PoPs return to the region by Fri as a shortwave
perturbation maneuver through the upper mean flow. Through the end
of the period, troughing deepens once more over the Nrn US, with a
blocking upper high over the Ern US/Atlantic Seaboard, amplifying
the S/Wrly flow over the fcst area. Under this flow pattern, several
shortwave perturbations are progged to move through the mean flow,
and create persistent rain chances over the weekend and into the new
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  84  68  83 /  30  60  70  60
Camden AR         70  89  71  83 /  30  40  80  90
Harrison AR       67  82  66  80 /  40  60  70  30
Hot Springs AR    69  87  70  83 /  20  50  90  80
Little Rock   AR  70  87  71  83 /  20  60  80  70
Monticello AR     70  89  71  82 /  30  40  80  90
Mount Ida AR      68  86  67  82 /  30  50  90  80
Mountain Home AR  68  82  67  81 /  40  60  70  30
Newport AR        71  83  71  83 /  30  60  70  60
Pine Bluff AR     71  87  71  81 /  30  40  90  80
Russellville AR   70  85  70  83 /  30  60  80  60
Searcy AR         69  87  69  85 /  30  60  80  70
Stuttgart AR      72  87  73  82 /  30  60  80  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...67 / Long Term...GREEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
220 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
220 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across southern
and western sections of the state, mainly this afternoon and
evening. As this happens, a large cluster of storms will likely
develop in Kansas. The storms will arrive in western Arkansas
after midnight tonight.

Storms today and tonight will produce locally heavy downpours,
with spotty flash flooding possible. Any severe weather will
be isolated, with strong to damaging winds the main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the coming
days. This is in response to a cold front pushing into the state
from the northwest and likely stalling around the Arkansas/Louisiana
border.

It appears another cluster of storms will form in northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening, and will
progress southward through the region during the overnight hours.
Some severe weather hazards will be possible, including severe
winds and hail, along with the potential of flash flooding in places.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday and Monday night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

67

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