Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Short  term...Tonight through Friday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed rapidly over the
past hour or so as a weak trough of low pressure is working its way
through the area. The trough is providing just enough instability
along with a warm, moist southerly flow to initiate the activity.
PWATS are in excess of 1.5 inches and with generally weak steering
flow aloft, the biggest issue will be heavy rain and localized
flooding.

Convection should continue through the rest of the afternoon and
into the early evening but lingering showers/storms will be possible
through the night. High resolution models are showing another area
of precipitation coming into the north around daybreak Thursday.

Precipitation chances will ramp up again on Thursday afternoon but
upper trough/best instability will be located over eastern Arkansas.
As such, the best chances of the diurnally driven precip will be
over the eastern part of the state, locally heavy rain will still be
the primary concern.

The upper ridge that had dominated the pattern until today will
begin to build back in over the region for Friday. Convection can
not be totally discounted in this type of environment but any thing
that develops will be much more scattered in nature.

Temperatures will remain very warm to hot in the short term period
with plenty of moisture as well for that summer like feel. Overnight
lows will also remain on the warm side with upper 60s to lower 70s
expected.
&&

.Long term...Friday night through Wednesday

Upper ridge will remain anchored in place over the SE CONUS at the
start of the long term with continued summer type weather over
Arkansas. This includes temps approaching the mid 90s and isolated
diurnally driven thunderstorms. The ridge will begin to break down
and slide east late in the weekend while TS Cristobal crosses into
the Gulf States. While the ECMWF is slightly faster, the overall
long term forecast guidance suggests the track will move north over
Arkansas in the Sunday night to Tuesday night time frame. Amounts
will vary greatly depending on the eventual track.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  90  69  93 /  30  40  20  30
Camden AR         69  92  71  94 /  20  40  10  30
Harrison AR       67  87  68  90 /  30  40  20  30
Hot Springs AR    69  90  70  93 /  20  30  10  20
Little Rock   AR  71  90  71  93 /  20  30  10  20
Monticello AR     71  90  72  92 /  30  50  10  30
Mount Ida AR      69  90  68  92 /  20  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  67  87  68  91 /  30  40  20  30
Newport AR        71  89  71  92 /  30  40  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     71  91  71  93 /  30  40  10  30
Russellville AR   68  90  70  93 /  20  30  10  20
Searcy AR         70  91  70  93 /  30  40  20  20
Stuttgart AR      72  90  72  92 /  30  40  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...GOUDSWARD / Long Term...61

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
250 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and into the evening hours. While the chances of severe weather
are low, some very heavy rainfall and localized flooding is
possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Some scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the state
Thursday into Friday and again Monday into Tuesday. Widespread
severe weather is not anticipated, but a few storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

From Friday through Sunday with temperatures expected to climb into
the lower 90s and abundant moisture is in place near the surface,
heat indices will approach 100 degrees in some places.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

ARZ023-024-032-033-032045-
White AR-Van Buren AR-Faulkner AR-Cleburne AR-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND NORTHWESTERN WHITE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Damascus, or 14 miles south of Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Heber Springs...                  Greers Ferry...
Quitman...                        Guy...
Rose Bud...                       Damascus...
Twin Groves...                    Fairbanks...
Whipple...                        Bee Branch...
Southside in Van Buren County...  Morganton...
Eden Isle...                      Enders...
Hopewell in Cleburne County...    Pearson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 9197 3531 9246 3542 9248 3544 9248
      3558 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 254DEG 25KT 3538 9237

230

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
424 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

ARZ003-012-013-032215-
Searcy AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-
424 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SEARCY...EASTERN
NEWTON AND SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pruitt, or 7 miles south of Harrison, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harrison...                       Jasper...
Western Grove...                  Piercetown...
Carver...                         Erbie...
Pruitt...                         Point Peter...
Bellefonte...                     Bass...
Marble Falls...                   Yardelle...
Crossroad...                      Vendor...
Gum Springs in Newton County...   Mt Judea...
Gaither...                        Cowell...
Hasty...                          Woolum Recreation Area...

LAT...LON 3615 9328 3623 9307 3595 9281 3578 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 336DEG 9KT 3613 9315

65

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