Alert archive / West Virginia / Flash Flood Watches in 2020
Flash Flood Watch 21, NWS Baltimore/Washington
NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flash flood watch at Aug 13, 2020, 1:49 AM EDT for 4 counties in West Virginia; Shenandoah County, Virginia; Allegany County, Maryland. It took effect at Aug 13, 2020, 7:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 14 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2020, 1:49 AM EDT (05:49 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 13, 2020, 7:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 13, 2020, 8:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 14 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Baltimore/Washington
Counties Allegany County, MD, Shenandoah County, VA, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Mineral County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 00:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 159 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -94 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1367 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
735 WGUS61 KLWX 130549 FFALWX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 MDZ501-502-VAZ027-WVZ050-055-501>504-132200- /O.CAN.KLWX.FF.A.0020.000000T0000Z-200813T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0021.200813T1100Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Shenandoah- Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Romney, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of western Maryland, northwest Virginia, and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas, in western Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany and Extreme Western Allegany. In northwest Virginia, Shenandoah. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Western Grant, and Western Mineral. * From 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && The Flash Flood Watch for portions of western Maryland, northwest Virginia, and eastern West Virginia has been cancelled. $$ MDZ003>006-011-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505-506-WVZ051>053-505-506- 132200- /O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0020.200813T1100Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal, Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, and Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Frederick, Warren, and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Pendleton, Jefferson, Morgan, and Western Pendleton. * From 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that rapid rises of water and flash flooding are POSSIBLE. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Those in low lying areas and near streams should monitor water levels during heavy rain and be prepared to move to high ground quickly if flooding is observed, or NWS warnings are issued. Drivers should be very cautious overnight. Low areas may become flooded, and heavy rain can cause poor drainage flooding quickly. If you encounter a flooded road, turn around, don't drown. && $$ DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ025-026-036>038-040-050>057-501>504-508- 132200- /O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0020.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Augusta- Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, and Wintergreen 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in central Maryland, Anne Arundel and Prince Georges. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Highland, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Orange, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western Highland. * Through this evening * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ MDZ016>018-VAZ029-039-507-132200- /O.EXT.KLWX.FF.A.0020.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Page-Madison- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Madison, and Big Meadows 149 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of southern Maryland and northwest Virginia, including the following areas, in southern Maryland, Calvert, Charles, and St. Marys. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, and Page. * Through this evening * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
3 follow-up statements
384 WGUS61 KLWX 132150 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 550 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 MDZ501-502-VAZ027-WVZ050-055-501>504-140400- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0021.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Shenandoah- Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Romney, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 550 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of western Maryland, northwest Virginia, and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas, in western Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany and Extreme Western Allegany. In northwest Virginia, Shenandoah. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Western Grant, and Western Mineral. * Until midnight EDT tonight * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ MDZ003>006-011-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505-506-WVZ051>053-505-506- 140400- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0020.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal, Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 550 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, and Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Frederick, Warren, and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Pendleton, Jefferson, Morgan, and Western Pendleton. * Until midnight EDT tonight * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that rapid rises of water and flash flooding are POSSIBLE. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Those in low lying areas and near streams should monitor water levels during heavy rain and be prepared to move to high ground quickly if flooding is observed, or NWS warnings are issued. Drivers should be very cautious overnight. Low areas may become flooded, and heavy rain can cause poor drainage flooding quickly. If you encounter a flooded road, turn around, don't drown. && $$ DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ025-026-029-036>040-050>057-501>504- 507-508-140400- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0020.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- St. Marys-Calvert-Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen 550 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince Georges, and St. Marys. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Highland, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western Highland. * Until midnight EDT tonight * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop today. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
147 WGUS61 KLWX 132330 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 730 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ025-026-028>031- 036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ051>053-505-506-140030- /O.CAN.KLWX.FF.A.0020.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 730 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia has been cancelled. | $$ VAZ027-140030- /O.CAN.KLWX.FF.A.0021.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Shenandoah- Including the cities of Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, and New Market 730 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northwest Virginia has been cancelled. $$ MDZ501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-140400- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0021.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Romney, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 730 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas, in western Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany and Extreme Western Allegany. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, Western Grant, and Western Mineral. * Until midnight EDT tonight * Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall may develop this evening. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may lead to isolated flash flooding. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. Landslides and washouts are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$
309 WGUS61 KLWX 140045 FFALWX Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 845 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 MDZ501-502-WVZ050-055-501>504-140145- /O.CAN.KLWX.FF.A.0021.000000T0000Z-200814T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire- Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Romney, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, and Fort Ashby 845 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flash Flood Watch for portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia has been cancelled. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 12, 9:46 PM EDT, 4 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 9:46 PM EDT, 4 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
946 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall over the Middle Atlantic through Thursday, then
drift southward Friday into Saturday. The front will then lift back
northward through the end of the weekend as low pressure lifts into
the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The heaviest rain has tapered off for the majority of our
region. A line of thunderstorms have formed over western
Maryland and the eastern Panhandle of WV. The WOFs or Warn on
forecast experimental ensembles were hinting at this solution
all night and this will remain the main concern area over the
next few ours. A new thunderstorm has also formed over central
Virginia in Orange County and if it happens to move over areas
that received a lot of rainfall in our central Virginia counties
, further flood warnings may be needed. Since we have ongoing
storms that may linger through the next few hours we may need
extend the Flash Flood Watch through the overnight periods.
...... Previous discussion........
Showers and thunderstorms are forming within an unstable,
uncapped environment early this afternoon as a weak cold front
drops southward into our area. This front, as well as the bay
breeze and terrain circulations are serving as the main foci
for convective initiation. Flow throughout the column is very
weak, so convection will be rather disorganized/chaotic in
nature, with individual cells not moving much at all before
collapsing on themselves. Movement of storms should largely be
driven by propagation/formation of new cells along cold pool
driven outflow from nearly stationary parent cells.
Precipitable water values have climbed to in excess of 2 inches
along and southeast of I-95. When combined with MLCAPE values
of 2000-3000 J/kg, very heavy rainfall rates will be possible in
stronger storms. Very high instantaneous rainfall rates were
already observed last night near Manassas (around 2-3 inches per
hour), with comparatively much lower instability and slightly
lower precipitable water values. So with the greater instability
in place, more vigorous updrafts this afternoon should be able
to process even greater amounts of the moisture rich airmass,
leading to even higher rainfall rates than were observed
overnight. So despite the disorganized, chaotic nature of the
storms expected today (and resultant limited potential for
training of cells), the threat for flash flooding appears to be
significant, in large part due to the very high rainfall rates
and low flash flood guidance values (following recent heavy
rains). As a result, WPC has placed much of the area in a
moderate risk for excessive rainfall and a Flash Flood Watch is
in effect for the entire area until 11 PM. With the chaotic
nature of the storms today, it is tough to pinpoint individual
areas where the greatest impacts will be felt, since things like
outflow boundary collisions could be what results in prolonged
periods of rain in one given spot. However it's worth noting
that the background environment appears slightly more favorable
for flash flooding along and southeast of I-95/66, where the
highest instability and precipitable water values will reside.
In that same area, profiles will contain less mid-upper level
dry air, which should lead to both more efficient rainfall
processes.
The overall threat for damaging winds appears to be low, but
non-zero. With nearly no background flow in place, any damaging
winds would need to be driven by strong downdrafts. SPC
mesoanalysis currently indicates that the highest DCAPE values
reside to the north and west of I-95/66 (where the presence of
some mid- upper level dry air will help to aid in
evaporationally driven downdraft accelerations). While an
isolated water loaded downburst can't be ruled out anywhere,
think the greatest risk for damaging winds will be along and
northwest of I-95/66 within the higher DCAPE air. Due to this
low-end threat, SPC has placed a sizeable portion of the
forecast area in a marginal risk for damaging winds this
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Storms should gradually wind down this evening, but an uptick in
storm coverage is expected again later tonight as a shortwave
disturbance passes to our northwest. In response to this
shortwave, winds at 850 hPa will switch around to out of the
south- southeast, and begin to overrun the stalled boundary.
Within the moist, uncapped environment, this small change may
be enough to spark the development of additional showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Most
model guidance is focusing this additional activity to the east
of the Blue Ridge. These storms may pose a threat for additional
flash flooding, especially if they move over areas impacted by
storms today. After the disturbance passes by, the frontal
boundary will sag off to the south, shifting the focus for
heavier rainfall in the afternoon to southern portions of the
forecast area (central Virginia to southern Maryland).
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
Night through Friday Night, as winds shift around to easterly
north of the front. Coverage of showers and storms may begin to
uptick Friday Night as a trough centered over the Ohio Valley
moves closer to the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front that is producing showers and thunderstorms over our area
will return back northward Saturday into Sunday as a wave of low
pressure lifts into the Ohio River Valley. Additional showers and
thunderstorms seem likely during this time, with additional heavy
rainfall possible.
Clearing should commence early next week as the low chases the front
offshore. The flow may buckle a bit toward the middle of next week
resulting in a return to unsettled weather, but details are fuzzy
this far in advance, especially this time of the year when forcing
mechanisms are often subtle.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All terminals experienced periods of subVFR conditions toda.
Showers and thunderstorms have moved out of all our terminals
and VFR conditions are currently being reported. Low ceilings
and visibilities may be a concern early tomorrow morning as the
environment is very moist and winds are expected to become
light overnight.
... Previous discussion.....
The main aviation concern over the next couple days will be
thunderstorm coverage. Coverage of storms is expected to
increase today and Thursday. Best risk of storms will be
afternoon/early evening, but could linger into the overnight
hours. There are also some signs that storms may reform late
tonight in the metro areas. As a result, have added another VCTS
to IAD/BWI/DCA/MTN for late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Some patchy morning low clouds/fog will be possible at
MRB/IAD/CHO during the overnights.
Sub-VFR conditions seem likely at times this weekend in onshore flow
and renewed chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
No significant synoptic wind issues are expected through the
next few days. The main concern through Thursday will be
thunderstorms. Coverage will increase significantly today and
Thursday, with gusty winds a threat from any storm. Best timing
is afternoon and evening, though the risk may linger through
tonight and Thursday night. Special Marine Warnings may be
needed for any stronger storms.
Easterly/onshore flow may breach Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
thresholds this weekend.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003>006-
011-013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025>031-
036>040-050>057-501>508.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KJP/JMG
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/JMG
MARINE...DHOF/KJPHazardous weather outlook, Aug 13, 1:34 AM EDT, 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-140545- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Storms capable of producing localized heavy rainfall may form during the early morning periods of Thursday over southern MD. A Flash Flood Watch has been extended for southern MD until 8 am Thursday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms with very heavy rain and a potential for flash flooding are likely again on Thursday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. But any flooding reports should be relayed to the National Weather Service. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-140545- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Thunderstorms with very heavy rain and a potential for flash flooding are likely again on Thursday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. But any flooding reports should be relayed to the National Weather Service.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Aug 12, 8:53 PM EDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0529 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW CATONSVILLE 39.25N 76.77W
08/12/2020 HOWARD MD BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES NEAR BEECHWOOD ROAD AND
BONNIE BRANCH ROAD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2002106
BKFLocal storm report, Aug 12, 9:27 PM EDT, 4 hours 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM FLOOD 1 WSW STAUNTON 38.15N 79.08W
08/12/2020 CITY OF STAUNTON VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WATER RESCUE REPORTED ON MONTGOMERY AVE NEAR WEST
BEVERLY STREET.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2002107
JMGLocal storm report, Aug 12, 9:28 PM EDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0732 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE ROUND HILL 39.12N 77.74W
08/12/2020 LOUDOUN VA PUBLIC
SEVERAL TREES DOWN SOUTHWEST OF PURCELLVILLE, INCLUDING
ON TRANQUILITY RD AND SILCOTT SPRINGS RD
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2002108
ADSLocal storm report, Aug 12, 9:29 PM EDT, 4 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM FLOOD 2 WSW STAUNTON 38.15N 79.09W
08/12/2020 CITY OF STAUNTON VA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WATER RESCUE REPORTED ON HAYS AVE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2002109
JMGLocal storm report, Aug 12, 10:05 PM EDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1005 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1004 PM FLOOD 1 NW RIDGELEY 39.65N 78.78W
08/12/2020 ALLEGANY MD TRAINED SPOTTER
ABOUT A FOOT OF FLOWING WATER OVER THE INTERSECTION AT
E OLDTOWN RD. AND BLACKISTON AVE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2002110
CJLLocal storm report, Aug 12, 10:29 PM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM DEBRIS FLOW 1 SE CUMBERLAND 39.65N 78.76W
08/12/2020 ALLEGANY MD 911 CALL CENTER
MUDSLIDE REPORTED ON MARYLAND AVENUE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2002111
BKFThe office that day
Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 10:01 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Hampshire, Mineral | 4 hr |
| Aug 12, 8:14 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Augusta, City of Staunton | 2 hr |
| Aug 12, 8:21 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Augusta, City of Staunton | 66 min |
| Aug 13, 5:38 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Prince William | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 5:54 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Spotsylvania | 10 hr |
| Aug 13, 6:17 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | LWX | 118 min | |
| Aug 13, 6:53 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Prince William | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 7:07 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Prince William | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 7:24 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Prince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 7:36 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | LWX | 78 min | |
| Aug 13, 8:00 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Prince William | 3 hr |
| Aug 13, 8:03 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Fauquier | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 8:58 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Fairfax | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 9:27 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Fairfax, City of Fairfax | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 10:00 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | LWX | 51 min | |
| Aug 13, 10:54 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Orange | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 11:14 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Culpeper | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 1:15 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Prince William | 9 hr |
| Aug 12, 8:50 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Anne Arundel | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 8:32 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Calvert, Charles, Saint Mary's | 6 hr |
| Aug 13, 9:25 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | LWX | Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's | 5 hr |
| Aug 13, 9:41 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Charles, Prince George's | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in West Virginia, 2020Flash Flood Watches in Virginia, 2020Flash Flood Watches in Maryland, 2020Every flash flood watch in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.