Wind Advisory 20, NWS Lubbock, TX

006 
WWUS74 KLUB 131810
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1210 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-131915-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201213T2100Z/
Parmer-Castro-Bailey-Lamb-Cochran-Hockley-Yoakum-Terry-
Including the cities of Friona, Bovina, Farwell, Dimmitt, Hart, 
Muleshoe, Littlefield, Amherst, Olton, Morton, Whiteface, 
Levelland, Sundown, Denver City, Plains, Brownfield, Meadow, 
and Wellman
1210 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind speeds will not increase as much as previously expected.
While breezy to windy conditions are expected this afternoon,
sustained wind speeds are expected to remain below 30 mph. Thus,
the wind advisory has been cancelled.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
317 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Our next winter storm has begun to taking shape this morning and
will affect the northern portions of the CWA through the day.

Over the past few days this system has most closely resembled the
"type-D" pattern from the Vitale/Lambert thesis tempering concerns
for particularly high snow across any parts of the CWA. This train
of thought continues this morning accompanied by WV imagery
illustrating a moisture starved system. Although isentropic ascent
and moistening in the atmosphere has resulted in very light
precipitation forming across the northern half of the FA this
morning, so far there is no indication that any of this precipitaion is
reaching the ground. This is likely due to the dry conveyor belt
limiting moisture aloft and within the dendritic growth zone. Any
precipitation forming is in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
Given this and surrounding observations, snow amounts across the
area have not changed. 1 inch or less is still possible across most
of the southern Texas Panhandle with heavier amounts posssibly along
the rim of Palo Duro Canyon southward towards Silverton where a
northeast upslope flow could enhance snowfall and accumulations. No
headlines are deemed necessary at this time. A rain snow mix looks
likely across the central South Plains and the southeastern
Panhandle while rain will be most likely across the southern Rolling
Plain. In these area accumulations should be will range from a trace
to a few hundreths. Overall and in agreement with the WSSI (Winter
Storm Severity Index) only minor and limited impacts can be expected
with this system.

Outside of the snow this mornings cold front is still progged to
bring advisory level winds through mid afternoon out west. A wind
advisory will be necessary for the southwestern Panhandle and the
western South Plains.

This system will quickly exit the area late this afternoon with any
wrap around moisture east of us by sunset. A cold night follows as
skies clear and temperatures plummet into the teens and twenties.

.LONG TERM...
Good inter-model agreement is evident through Friday night. x Monday
will see low amplitude ridging across the south central CONUS as
another storm system makes its way into the Great Basin.  The
digging trough will make it to the TX/NM state line around sunrise
on Tuesday with the core passing through the TX/OK Panhandle region
around mid-day.  NW flow aloft will then prevail for a few days
until an embedded trough passes through the northern Plains
Wednesday night.  Thereafter, the next Pacific storm will dig into
the central part of the country and approach the area Friday night.
Thereafter, there are indications of continued low amplitude
impulses though the inter-model correlation drops significantly.

After a chilly day today, SWRLY surface winds will help temperatures
rebound into the 50s on Monday.  These winds will back Monday night
as the next storm system approaches and lee troughing develops
across ERN NM in response to mid level height falls.  By sunrise on
Tuesday, a cold front will be making its way into the CWFA with
strong pressure rises to our NW.  This may prove to result in
advisory level winds though progged speed magnitudes have diminished
somewhat over the last 24 hours.  The NBM is hitting on some snow
showers / sprinkles for Tuesday afternoon up by CDS though the
deterministic signal is less than convincing.  Moisture is very
limited. Fairly benign weather is expected until another breezy day
arrives on Friday with the passage of another trough to our north
followed by another shot of cooler air for Friday night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this afternoon
for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

28/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
203 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020

TXZ021>044-132015-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
203 PM CST Sat Dec 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Generally light snowfall is expected to develop mainly across areas
to the north of a Muleshoe to Paducah line between 6 AM and noon
Sunday. Accumulations will mostly be less than 1/2 inch, however some
localized 1 to 2 inch accumulations are possible, especially for
areas from Happy to Silverton.

Sustained winds on Sunday may exceed 30 mph for a few hours across
the western portions of the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and
South Plains.

Windy conditions will be possible again on Tuesday.