Wind Advisory 19, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
522 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs continue at all terminals. They will continue through at
least 12Z. CIGs are expected to increase to VFR by noon and then
remain VFR through the rest of the TAF cycle. A chance still
exists for Fog to move into LBB and PVW but confidence is too low
to include in the TAF. If fog does move into LBB or PVW it should
dissipate by 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Light rain showers remain over the far eastern Rolling Plains but
should push east of the FA within the next hour or two. Low stratus
is slowly pushing southward across the FA with ceilings as low as
800 feet AGL but may possibly drop to 300 feet by sunrise. This is
accompanied by fog. Fog is mostly confined to our far northwestern
zones but is expected to push east and southward through the
morning. This cloud cover/fog will limit how low temps get by
sunrise.

The upper low currently over the region will push off to the east
later this morning. A secondary front will push through the region
before noon bringing breezy winds and a reinforcement of cold air.
This second front will help keep temps on the cool side with highs
only in the mid 40s/50s. Surface high pressure will move into the
region later tonight and, coupled with clear skies, will help drop
temps into the mid teens/mid 20s area wide. The placement of the
upper high will dictate how low temps will drop. Current guidance
suggests it will settle across the western/northwester portion of
the FA. This could drop temps lower than what is forecasted as low
dewpoints will give temps some playing room.

LONG TERM...
Monday will start the day out very cold with a 1036mb surface ridge
directly overhead. This surface ridge will slide to the southeast
during the day and will be replaced by surface lee troughing. A
stronger downslope component to the surface winds will come on
Tuesday before the next front moves through Tuesday afternoon. This
will allow for a moderate warmup on Tuesday before a period of
extended below seasonal average temperatures. A blocking pattern
will set up for the second half of next week allowing for strong
meridional flow aloft and continued cold air dumps into the Plains.
This will keep temperatures below seasonal averages for the
foreseeable future along with dry conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
744 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

TXZ021>044-301345-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
744 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of fog, locally dense, will affect the far western South Plains
early this morning. Any fog will diminish by midday. In addition, a
strong cold front will move through the area this afternoon. This
front may bring sustained winds in excess of 30 mph across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains during the
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.