Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Focus this evening remains on convective trends in the near term.
Mesoanalysis showing best zone for convective initiation may have
shifted just a bit to the east as surface flow has been very slow to
back to the south. This has allowed dry air west of a diffuse
dryline to reach the Lubbock metro area. Towering cumulus has
developed in a cumulus field associated with strong low level
moisture advection up through the eastern Permian Basin. Initiation
now seems to be favored along a line roughly from Tahoka to Paducah,
although additional development will be possible a bit further west
as the surface flow backs and moisture pushes to the northwest.
Strong CAPE and weak shear as mentioned in earlier discussion still
favors multicellular storms with potential for hail/wind eventually
becoming more linear into an MCS/squall line with a maturing cold
pool and a trend toward wind/heavy rain. Precip chances should drop
off after 06Z as the MCS shifts east of the forecast area.

Outflow from an MCS across Oklahoma this afternoon is pushing
westward toward the High Plains and should get a boost in its
progress from this evening's South/Rolling Plains storms. Resulting
easterly flow level flow is expected to persist through Saturday. A
cooler but moist air mass and proximity to cooler mid level
temperatures near an exiting short wave trough could lead to a few
showers/thunderstorms across the Rolling Plains during the day
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
By Saturday evening an upper level low will be located
across northeastern Texas as it lifts away from our forecast area.
This will place our area within northwesterly upper level flow.
While some models try to precipitate NW of the area, it appears
conditions will be too dry and stable within the forecast area to
support this activity. Therefore, have maintained the dry forecast
at this time. By Sunday morning upper level ridging will begin to
take hold across the forecast area and remain in place for much of
the upcoming week leading to mostly dry conditions. At the surface
on Sunday, a weak cold front will slide south into at least northern
portions of the area. This front will be on the weak side so not
expecting much to happen with it although some models try to produce
some convection along it. Looking at area soundings appears that a
large cap will be in place so don't expect much in the way of storms
and have again kept the forecast dry at this time.

Temperatures will gradually warm for Monday and Tuesday as we remain
under upper level high pressure. Monday evening, the upper level
pattern will become much more progressive as an upper level low
moves onshore. The ridge will gradually begin to weaken and shift
east on Tuesday ahead of the upper level low. By Wednesday the upper
level low will pass by to our north but this will move a piece of
energy through our area. A weak dryline may setup along the NM/TX
state line which may serve as a surface forcing mechanism for
storms. Uncertainty remains high as to whether or not any storms
will actually develop however the trends have remained in place for
a couple of days. Therefore, did introduce a slight risk of showers
and thunderstorms for primarily the South plains and southwestern
Panhandle late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Southwest flow will
remain in place across the area Thursday through the end of the
weekend with weak impulses moving across our area. This means that
additional shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible late
next week into the weekend however due to the uncertainties this far
out stuck with the blend which is not mentioning any PoPs at this
time. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07/58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1144 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ021>044-161645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1144 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop this afternoon
across the South Plains and Rolling Plains, generally along and east
of a Denver City to Lubbock to Memphis line. Damaging winds to 70
mph and large hail up to two inches in diameter will be possible in
addition to the potential for localized flash flooding. The severe
weather threat will continue through the evening as the storms move
to the east and southeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Mainly evening and overnight thunderstorms are expected through at
least Monday night. There will be a conditional risk of severe
thunderstorms with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state, and CDC guidelines.