Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...
A ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS over the
coming day, leaving West Texas in some form of northerly flow. As of
1830Z, a MCV persists over Lea County, complete with a few lingering
showers, as it sags southward. The MCV did provide a little light
rainfall across the southwest South Plains earlier while also
helping to keep temperatures suppressed somewhat, thanks to the
added cloud cover. However, the clouds were gradually thinning and
even our far southwestern zones could recover into the middle 90s
late this afternoon. Where the clouds have been thinner (or non-
existent) temperatures have already soared into the middle and upper
90s.

At the surface, a couple of subtle boundaries can be discerned; one
along the differential heating over the southwestern South Plains;
and a second boundary near the edge of the Caprock. As temperatures
are approaching the convective temp, expect isolated to scattered
storms to develop across the CWA, favoring locations along/near any
lingering convergent boundaries. Another focus for potential CI will
be along a gust front pushing southwestward out of an ongoing MCS
over northwest Oklahoma. This gust front should affect the northeast
portion of our FA after 21Z. Deep layer wind shear is again on the
meager side, with MLCAPE values ranging from 500 J/kg across the
western South Plains to over 2000 J/kg across the southeast Texas
Panhandle. The hot and deeply mixed boundary layer (DCAPEs near 1500
J/kg for most of the FA) will support strong to severe downburst
winds with the more substantial precipitation cores. In addition,
short-lived pockets of hail will be possible, especially where the
stronger instability is ingested. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall will accompany the more robust multicells.

This afternoon's convection will tend to fade by mid to late
evening. However, a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum is
progged to develop over southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas this
evening, sagging southward toward and over the South Plains on
Monday. This disturbance, assuming it materializes, could renew rain
chances toward Monday morning, spreading from north to south. At a
minimum, it would generate some cloud cover that should help to keep
temperatures down a bit Monday afternoon. Even so, it will still be
warm to hot (highs mostly in the lower to middle 90s) after a
seasonably mild (lows in the 60s to low 70s) start to the day.
Depending on how the mid-level disturbance evolves, it will impact
Monday afternoon's storm chances. The latest round of NWP have
slowed the southward progression of the disturbance and favor low
thunder chances along and ahead of it, across the southwestern half
to two thirds of the CWA Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
As we move into the first part of the work week we will continue
to be somewhat under the influence of the 598mb high anchored over
the Four Corners. Flow aloft will stay northerly keeping a steady
advection of moisture over the area. Tuesday, drier continental air
from the west at the lower and mid-levels will limit precip chances
area wide. Better moisture return occurs Wednesday reintroducing
isolate afternoon/evening storms chances to the forecast. Increased
PoP fields will be concentrated over the western portions with storm
initiation expected across SE CO and eastern NM followed by
propagation into our area. However, as we have seen over and over
the past few evenings, storms could develop along any surface
boundary and produce rainfall and gusty winds across any portion
of the area. In terms of temperatures...yesterday the upper high
was progged to move much further NW of the area during the long
term indicating a "cooling" in temperatures as the week
progressed. However, now guidance shows the high stagnant over the
Four Corners for the long term. Thus, temperatures will remain at
or just slightly above normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s
and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

23/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1115 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

TXZ021>044-171615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1115 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the South
Plains region this afternoon and continue into tonight. The most
intense storms will have potential to produce wind gusts near or in
excess of 60 mph, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible every evening across the southwestern
Texas Panhandle and South Plains from Wednesday through Saturday. A
few of these storms could become strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
357 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

TXZ024-025-162130-
Briscoe TX-Hall TX-
357 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HALL AND EASTERN BRISCOE COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Hedley, or 9 miles west of Memphis, moving south at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Memphis, Turkey, Caprock Canyon State Park, Brice, Estelline,
Lakeview and Plaska Community.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 10042 3440 10109 3475 10100 3475 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 006DEG 43KT 3473 10072

SINCAVAGE