Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites. Developing line of
storms will move across all TAF sites tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Storms will be capable of damaging wind speeds when they
move over the TAF sites and recommend aircraft be secured for
possible severe thunderstorm wind speeds. Timing does remain a bit
uncertain however and expect amendments as storms are approaching
TAF sites to provide better window for impacts. After storms pass,
MVFR ceilings will be possible towards sunrise Tuesday through mid
Tuesday morning. Any ceilings will lift by late morning with VFR
conditions expected through Tuesday afternoon all three TAF sites.
Another round of storms may try to develop just beyond the end of
this TAF cycle but would mainly impact KLBB and KPVW at this time.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms expected to initiate across northeastern New Mexico
possibly as far south as south/west of Clovis. Good model agreement
in these storms congealing into an MCS that then moves in a general
southeastward direction through the night across much of the
forecast area as environment ahead of the system will be favorable,
i.e., good low level instability, healthy low level theta-e
advection on increasing southeasterly low level flow, and a steering
flow that brings storm directly into this good air mass. As a result
will increase precip chances through the night.

Tuesday's forecast depends to a large degree on the above scenario
working out. Large scale MCS and associated cold pool moving through
the forecast area should stabilize the air mass in place across the
forecast area with a northerly component to the surface flow during
the first half of the day. Veering winds toward east and southeast
are expected to result in another round of thunderstorms developing
across eastern New Mexico during the afternoon, some of which might
bleed over into the forecast area before 00Z. Temperatures are also
expected to be a bit on the "cool" side, similar to much of the area
today, with highs just a touch above MOS guidance currently
favored.

LONG TERM...
The upper-level trough that caused severe weather over the central
and southern plains is currently moving northeast and is expected to
setup over northeast CONUS through the end of the week. A ridge over
southwest CONUS will dominate over that area, this will maintain NW
flow aloft through the week across west Texas. Guidance is keeping
most of the area Tuesday evening dry, except for the western portion
of the CWA due to the potential for storms to move out of New
Mexico. Though, with high low-level dewpoints and NW flow aloft,
precipitation is not completely out of the question farther to the
east. As the ridge axis moves to the east-southeast on Wednesday,
the upper-level flow will turn more northerly, and convection should
be limited to New Mexico and the western part of the CWA. This
weekend, the ridge begins to break down as a trough moves over SW
CONUS. This is likely to bring some precipitation to the region;
though, guidance currently keeps it north of the area. Southerly to
southeasterly winds will keep a decent stream of moisture over
the area, which will keep the area warm and humid.

Kendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
425 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

TXZ021>044-232130-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
425 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move out of northeast New Mexico
later this afternoon and spread south and east across the region
tonight. Hail to one inch in diameter will be possible with a greater
threat of damaging 70 to 80 mph winds especially after dark. A severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect until 11 pm for areas north and west
of a Bledsoe, Slaton, to Silverton line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Mainly evening to overnight strong to severe storms will be possible
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.