Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.AVIATION...
TS at KLBB and KPVW to move east very early in the TAF period. The
threat at KCDS will last a bit longer. Stratus with MVFR potential
still looks pretty good at all terminals around sunrise Saturday,
likely lasting through the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Awaiting thunderstorm initiation. CAMs support this occurring
around 3 pm, and there is a cumulus field developing just to the
southwest of the forecast area. Modest subsidence on the backside
of a departing upper level short wave trough may delay the onset
by an hour or two, but still expect the models to be correct with
their development of thunderstorms across the western South Plains
that eventually congeal into an MCS near the I-27 corridor.
Forecast remains in good shape for this evening with little in the
way of change to the forecast elements. Could see some precip
linger past 06Z across the eastern zones as well as the
possibility of some showers/storms developing toward sunrise
Saturday in relation to an MCS potentially coming out of
southwestern Kansas or along its outflow. Will run with a slight
chance to account for these two possibilities. Thunderstorm
development much less certain for Saturday. There is no clear
signal in the models with much apparently hinging on location of
remnant boundaries, the degree of heating, and strength of cap.
Will broadbrush a slight chance mention at this time.

LONG TERM...
As the upper level trough flattens and shifts east we'll dry out and
heat up. Max temperatures on Sunday and Monday will approach triple
digits for most of us. Northwest flow aloft will persist through
midweek, with relief from the heat provided by a cold front pushing
through Monday night through early Tuesday. The front is relatively
weak and shallow, but slight chance POPs are reasonable across the
southern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. As the
embedded shortwave associated with the front moves east, the
front becomes more diffuse and stalls along the I20 corridor by
early Wednesday morning. Moisture return seems favorable over the
stalled front as it slowly lifts back north with a building ridge
to the west. Slight chance POPs are painted across the region
given the boundary and moisture return. Strength and coverage of
any convection remains uncertain, but with the building ridge to
the west, wind shear will be a limiting factor yet again.
Temperatures behind the cold front fall into the 80s for most of
us for the second half of next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
320 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

TXZ021>044-202030-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
320 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and extreme southern Panhandle through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours.

Some of these thunderstorms will likely become severe. Large hail
to 1.5" in diameter and damaging winds up to 80 mph will be the
primary threats. Storms will also have the potential to produce
heavy rainfall and localized flooding where recent heavy rains
have occurred.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

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