Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
717 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the evening hours tonight with lower
ceilings possible at KPVW and KLBB after midnight along with a
chance of strong thunderstorms in the hours surrounding sunrise,
especially at KPVW and KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Light rain showers are continuing across western zones as of 2 pm
associated with persistent upper level lift as an upper level short
wave trough is lifting northeastward across New Mexico. This wave is
part of a bigger system, a low spinning over the coast of southern
California and a strong southern branch jet stream rounding the base
of the low and then eastward across northwestern Mexico. Low level
moisture has been lower than forecasted all day, and when
combined with persistent stratus, significant destabilization has
yet to occur. However, the southerly component of the low level
flow will increase a bit and there will be a more prolonged period
of moisture advection into the Permian Basin and adjacent areas
of southeastern New Mexico and the southern South Plains as we
head through the evening hours. Meanwhile, lift from the
approaching jet stream should increase and work on low and mid
level moisture to develop what should be a pretty decent
convective complex. Initiation is expected by mid-evening across
the western Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico with
advection eastward, focusing across the southern third of the
forecast area and points south. High chance to low end likely
precip chances look reasonable at this time for the latter half of
the night. Still some severe threat with this round of storms
assuming moisture return is near what models have been suggesting.
This round of storms is expected to be ongoing across the Rolling
Plains at daybreak Saturday, then shifting east of the forecast
area in the morning hours. The dryline will make a push eastward
near or just east of the Caprock escarpment with the ejecting
upper low looking more like a much weaker upper trough potentially
supplying one last bit of support before day's end. Could see one
last bit of thunder in the afternoon hours, although confidence
is low at this time. Slight chance will handle the scenario fine
for now. Drier air will work into western zones during the
afternoon and west to southwest winds may become a bit gusty. A
brief period of elevated fire weather conditions may develop near
the state line.

LONG TERM...
By Sunday morning the upper level low that had been spinning
across Southern California will move across our area. As this wave
moves by, an additional northern wave will drop out of Canada and
move across the Central Plains. These systems may end up phasing
together and allow the cold air to dive south much faster than
currently forecasted. Latest guidance has the cold front entering
our forecast area late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon.
This front will have a very tight pressure gradient associated
with it so sustained wind speeds of 30+ mph will be possible with
even stronger gusts. High pressure will settle into the northern
panhandle early Monday morning which will allow a cold airmass to
settle into place over the region. Currently appears that
widespread near to below freezing temperatures will be possible on
Monday morning. With the cold air mass in place, afternoon high
temperatures on Monday will also be well below normal (may not get
out of the 40's) as cloud cover should remain in place for much
of the day.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, a weak shortwave trough will work
towards the area. This slight forcing combined with moist
southeasterly flow may allow for some precipitation to develop
across the region. At the moment, it still appears that the
Panhandle will have the highest probabilities of seeing
precipitation however latest NBM guidance continues to depict
precipitation chances across much of the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place which means near to below freezing
temperatures should occur once again overnight. Therefore,
maintained a rain/snow mix mention during this time period. Due to
uncertainties in precipitation location/intensity have left out a
mention of any measurable snowfall however this will have to be
watched closely as the event nears. Temperatures will slowly
rebound through the remainder of next week however temperatures
should remain below seasonal averages. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

55/99/99

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