Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
309 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Sharpening trough axis extending from a low across eastern MT is
swinging into West Texas this afternoon.  This appears to be the
first lobe in a doublet; the second of which will approach on
Monday.  Modest speed max west of the trough suggests further
entrenchment of the system over the next day or so.  We are seeing
the initial Cu field develop along the dryline and suspect CI around
to 21Z give or take.  Forecast thinking has not changed much since
mid-day--Please refer to previous update for details on today's
situation.

Convection should persist across the CWFA this evening exiting to
the east by around midnight.  A cold front is expected to move
through most of the FA by sunrise Monday morning offering cooler
temperatures for Monday (and reduced instability.) We may see storms
fire along the frontal boundary during the morning perhaps hanging
around during the day.  An uncertainty lies with the potential that
the front may get hung up across the southern Rolling Plains with a
triple point forming in the vicinity. Outside this more favored area
of convective development, We could see elevated storms fire across
NM late afternoon and move through the area overnight.  Much of the
detail in tommorow's forecast will depend on how things play out
today. If clouds hold in as expected, highs on Monday will be a fair
bit cooler than the past couple of days some areas in the northwest
struggling to exit the 60s.  This should decrease instability and
reduce the severe threat appreciably.  At present, our southeastern
counties look to have the best severe potential Monday afternoon
while more general thunder should exist elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...
By tomorrow afternoon the upper level trough axis will be directly
overhead. Cold pool aloft should be well established as should steep
mid level lapse rates. At the surface late afternoon heating and
mixing should help the environment continue to tap into the
available instability. This combined with Bulk Shear values near 30
kts across the far SE Rolling Plains will result in a continued
chance of severe thunderstorms with large hail and strong wind gusts
in the southern Rolling Plains through the evening hours. PWs will
continue to run well above normal so localized flooding will be a
threat. In the wake of the cold front temperatures Tuesday will only
reach the high 70s area wide.

In the longer range little agreement has emerged amongst the
guidance. Double omega block type pattern remains in place across
the CONUS with one centered over the west coast and one over the
east. The GFS keeps the low to our east, the ECMWF keeps it far
east and the NAM now shows it stationary just outside out
southeastern borders. With little consistency amongst the models
and very little handle on how these types of patterns play out in
mid-May we will continue to keep a slight mention of rain showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast. The thinking is that the low is
less likely to establish itself over the Metroplex and some
recycled moisture around the upper low will continue over our CWA.
If this is truly the case much of next week will be cool and
showery. Although the threat of severe weather will be at a
minimum it is still mid-May and a mention of thunder is warranted.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1054 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

TXZ021>044-251600-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1054 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorm chances will develop area-wide this afternoon
and continue through the evening. Hail to 2 inches diameter, wind
gusts to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Intense
rain also may lead to localized flash flooding and also could cause
renewed rises on area rivers and streams lasting through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few thunderstorms Monday may produce hail to near an inch diameter
on Monday. Locally heavy rain also is expected Monday, and a risk
for flooding will be possible in a few areas. River flows may remain
elevated Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about severe weather to the NWS while following local,
state, and CDC guidelines.