Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
247 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Rain showers and severe thunderstorms remain a concern this
evening into tonight across much of the area.

GOES-East WV shows a low just off the CA coast with a strong
shortwave trough rounding the eastern edge of the low aided by a
strong upper level jet. As the afternoon progresses this shortwave
trough will continue to move eastward as the parent low is
absorbed by an upper level low over NV. Simultaneously the
subtropical moisture plume will continue to draw moisture into
the Desert SW and then into our region helping dewpoints slowly
climb into the low 60s. Slowly increasing dewpoints will combine
with diurnal heating to create an unstable environment. This
instability will be met by broad upper level divergence ahead of
the shortwave to create isolate to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms. CAMS models suggest this storm development will be
somewhat disorganized at the start and favoring the warm sector,
but precip/storm coverage will largely ramp up later in the
evening, peaking overnight.

Little change overall in the convective parameters.... MUCAPE
values continue to be between 1300 to 2000 J/kg with deep layer
shear values near 45 knots to as high as 55 knots. Low level wind
shear however remains modest at best. This combination will
support the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts with
storms that do develop. Tornadoes will also be possible if LLWS
values can increase through the utilization of residual
boundaries. As the main upper low moves eastward the associated
Pacific cold front will move through the region. The cold front
will provide even more lift resulting in the possibility of
another round of severe storms early tomorrow morning.

The severe weather threat will quickly come to an end after the
passage of the cold front tomorrow morning. Strong winds are
expected behind the front through the day Thursday with values
near Wind Advisory levels. For now will hold off issuing a wind
advisory given the weather concerns for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
After all the busy weather Tonight and Tomorrow, things will
settle down for the most part through the rest of the forecast.
Behind the Pacific front and strong winds tomorrow will be a
colder polar front which will arrive in the early morning hours
Friday. We will probably see breezy conditions immediately behind
the front but wind speeds should decrease as the frontal zone
deepens over the area through the day. High temperatures will
drop back into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Friday and Saturday
with most of the Caprock seeing a freeze Friday morning and all
but the far southeastern Rolling Plains with a freeze Saturday
morning.

Zonal flow will then set up for the rest of the forecast with a
few weak disturbances moving over the region. We will warm back
into the 60s for Sunday and then temperatures will warm back into
the 70s for much of next week. The warm-up on Sunday will take
place ahead of the strongest shortwave that will move across the
area and southeasterly surface flow develops as surface pressure
falls occur ahead of the shortwave. Unfortunately the best
moisture return will take place late in the day and will only give
the Rolling Plains a chance of showers before the lift is east of
the area Saturday night. After that, we should remain dry as a
weak sloshing dryline develops allowing moisture to mix east
through the day and then attempt to mix back west as the boundary
layer decouples. All in all, a relatively quiet week next week
weather-wise compared to how this week has gone so far...

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

28/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
811 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXZ021>044-191315-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
811 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A couple of rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall, will be possible from very late
this afternoon through late tonight. Initially, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms early this evening will be capable of producing 2 inch
diameter hail, wind gusts to 60 mph and perhaps an isolated tornado.
A second more widespread cluster or line of storms will race
eastward across parts of the area late this evening. Damaging winds
to 70 mph will be the great threat with this late evening activity,
though ping pong ball sized hail and a brief tornado to two will also
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong westerly winds, sustained at 25 to 40 mph, are likely for
much of the South Plains region on Thursday. These winds may also
loft areas of blowing dust.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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