Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS St. Louis, MO

314 
WWUS53 KLSX 082052
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
352 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

MOC103-111-127-205-082115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200408T2115Z/
Knox MO-Marion MO-Shelby MO-Lewis MO-
352 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHWESTERN MARION...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES...

At 351 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Plevna, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Ewing, Plevna, Steffenville, Monticello and Newark. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9162 3990 9214 3997 9218 4005 9214
      4014 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 271DEG 28KT 3997 9208 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Carney

826 
WWUS53 KLSX 082102
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
402 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

MOC103-082112-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200408T2115Z/
Knox MO-
402 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3987 9162 3990 9195 4008 9195 4014 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 268DEG 32KT 3997 9195 

$$

MOC111-127-205-082115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200408T2115Z/
Marion MO-Shelby MO-Lewis MO-
402 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...

At 402 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Steffenville,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Ewing, Steffenville and Monticello. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9162 3990 9195 4008 9195 4014 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 268DEG 32KT 3997 9195 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Carney

418 
WWUS53 KLSX 082109
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
409 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

MOC111-127-205-082119-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200408T2115Z/
Marion MO-Shelby MO-Lewis MO-
409 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
415 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3987 9162 3990 9195 4008 9195 4014 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 268DEG 32KT 3997 9191 

$$

Carney

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
328 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Surface low currently over northeast Missouri will track to the east
southeast through the afternoon and into tonight, dragging a strong
cold front south across the forecast area. Storms beginning to
develop especially near frontal boundary across northern Missouri.
With MU CAPES around 3000 J/kg, steep ML lapse rates and
effective bulk shear around 45 kts, initially expect a large hail
event as discrete convection fires up. Then as front slides south,
will see activity congeal into a line of convection with the
severe threat transitioning to more of a severe wind event for
eastern and southern portions of forecast area. As for any tornado
threat, it will be isolated as low level shear and storm relative
helicity are marginal at best.

Storms are expected to develop any minute now over northeast MO and
west central IL, then move into the St. Louis metro area between 4
pm and 8 pm, and then into southern portions of forecast area
between 7 pm and 10 pm.

South to southwest winds will pickup ahead of front and veer to the
northwest to north behind it. Will see gusts up to 30 to 35 mph at
times, before diminishing late tonight. Once system exits region,
much colder and drier air will make it's way in with lows tonight in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

On Thursday, despite full sunshine, cold northwest winds will pickup
with gusts near 35 mph at times, so temperatures will struggle to
rise with highs only in the low 50s to low 60s, almost 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

Thursday night will be the coldest night with lows in the upper 20s
to mid 30s. Will need to issue a freeze/frost headline for portions
of the forecast area, but will let later forecast shifts handle this.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Surface ridge will be overhead on Friday with slightly warmer
conditions under sunny skies. Highs will be in the 50s.

By Friday night, surface ridge will begin to slide off to the east
as next system approaches the region. In the meantime, upper level
closed low over the southwestern U.S. will begin to lift out towards
forecast area. Will see increasing chances of rain towards daybreak
on Saturday, with best chances late Saturday night through Sunday.
Unseasonably cold air will return to the region Sunday night after
the system exits the region and winds pickup from the northwest.
Beyond that, extended models have differing solutions on additional
rain chances for the remainder of the forecast period. It does look
like we will have a prolonged period of well below normal
temperatures through at least next Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Main issue with the TAFs will be the storms that are expected to
develop ahead of a strong cold front between 20z and 01z Thursday.
Will see MVFR conditions with onset of activity. Otherwise, VFR
flight conditions expected for remainder of forecast period.
Winds will pickup just ahead of front and veer to the northwest
then north with gusts up to 30 kts at times, before diminishing
after 06z Thursday. Clouds will clear out tonight. Then on
Thursday winds will pickup from the northwest once again with
gusts near 25 kts at times.

Byrd
&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Record max temps for Wednesday, April 8th, 2020:

Saint Louis (KSTL)...89/1890
Columbia (KCOU)......86/2001
Quincy (KUIN)........84/2001

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     44  57  34  55 / 100   0   0   0
Quincy          38  53  29  52 /   5   5   0   0
Columbia        41  56  31  54 /  20   0   0   0
Jefferson City  43  58  31  56 /  40   0   0   0
Salem           43  56  33  53 / 100   5   0   0
Farmington      43  60  32  56 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
456 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091000-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
456 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with severe
storms likely, particularly across east central and southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois. Some storms may be capable of
producing very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and this
evening.  Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather, if
observed, to the National Weather Service.

GKS