River Flood Warning 91, NWS St. Louis, MO

864 
WGUS83 KLSX 231549
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1049 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Moreau River near 
  
      Jefferson City
      

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-242148-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-200327T0417Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.200323T0824Z.200323T1500Z.200325T2217Z.NO/
1049 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Moreau River near Jefferson City
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Monday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river is currently cresting near 18.2 feet and is forecast
  to fall below flood stage this evening. However, another rise
  above flood stage is possible by Wednesday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28

Moreau River
  Jefferson City  17.0   18.23       9.7   17.0   10.6    6.9    5.4


&&


LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3849 9211 3848 9231
      3853 9231                       



$$

058 
WGUS83 KLSX 241353
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
853 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
 
  Moreau River near Jefferson City
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation 
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC051-241423-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-200327T0417Z/
/JCMM7.1.ER.200323T0824Z.200323T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
853 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Moreau River near Jefferson City.
* At 8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to crest well below flood stage Wednesday
  morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28  03/29

Moreau River
  Jefferson City  17.0    6.73       8.3    7.5    5.8    4.8    4.2


&&


LAT...LON 3855 9214 3854 9207 3849 9211 3848 9231
      3853 9231                       



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Surface ridge will build in across the region today. However, very
little improvement in cloud cover as decent inversion just off the
surface will keep stratus layer around through at least the mid
afternoon hours, before ceilings lift somewhat but will not scatter
out. Another issue in the near term will be areas of dense fog over
portions of central Missouri that will linger through at least
15z. Dense fog advisory has been issued for this area with
visibilities a quarter of a mile or less at times. With the
lingering clouds, fog, and light winds, temperatures will struggle
to rise much today. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

By tonight, surface ridge will move off to the east as next system
approaches region. Strong upper level shortwave with associated
surface low over the Southern Plains will slide east towards
forecast area with increasing chances of showers and some storms
late tonight especially on nose of low level jet.

During the day on Tuesday, warm frontal boundary will extend
eastward from surface low along I-70 corridor with portions of
southeast MO and southern IL in the warm sector. Still some
differences among the models on exact placement of the frontal
boundary and surface low track. For now with MU CAPES between 500
and 1000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates around 8, and 0-1km SRH in
excess of 300 m2s2, still expect isolated/scattered strong to severe
storms, especially Tuesday afternoon/early evening over southeast
MO and southern IL. SPC has placed this area in a marginal risk
at this time. Rainfall amounts between half an inch and an inch
are possible with locally higher amounts possible. Highs will be
in the upper 40s to mid 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Showers and storms exit region by Tuesday evening with dry
conditions returning to the region through Wednesday. Otherwise,
active pattern continues with several weak shortwaves sliding
eastward in zonal flow aloft Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Beyond that, digging shortwave trof over the southwestern
US will begin to lift out towards forecast area with best chances
of showers and storms Friday through Saturday. As for temperatures
through the extended, expect the warmest weather Thursday and
Friday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 70s both days.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Patchy drizzle still possible late tonight. The cloud ceiling
should lower in the St Louis metro area late tonight with fog
developing. The cloud ceiling and visibility will become quite
low late tonight/early Monday morning in UIN and COU with lowest
values down to around 1/2 to 1 mile in fog with the cloud ceiling
down to 200-300 feet. Will see slow improvement late Monday
morning and afternoon with MVFR conditions in the afternoon and
VFR conditions in the evening. Winds will be quite weak with a
surface ridge dropping southward into the taf sites Monday
morning.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Intermittent drizzle is still possible late
tonight. The cloud ceiling will lower overnight with fog
developing. The cloud ceiling should drop below 1000 feet with the
visibility dropping to around 4 miles in fog late tonight. Will
see slow improvement late Monday morning and afternoon with MVFR
conditions in the afternoon and VFR conditions Monday evening.
Winds will be quite weak, mainly from an east-northeast direction
with a surface ridge dropping southward into the STL area Monday
morning.

GKS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     52  44  55  43 /   5  20 100  10
Quincy          47  40  48  39 /   5  20  90  10
Columbia        52  45  52  41 /   5  40 100   5
Jefferson City  53  46  56  42 /  10  50 100   5
Salem           52  42  53  43 /   5  20 100  30
Farmington      54  45  59  43 /   5  40 100   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Shelby MO.

IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241200-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of dense fog over portions of central Missouri through mid
morning. Visibilities will be a quarter of a mile or less at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday Night through Tuesday
evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon
and evening across parts of southeastern Missouri and southern
Illinois. The main threat will be large hail.

There are additional chances for thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Byrd