Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 72, NWS St. Louis, MO

March 18, 2020Fayette County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Mar 18, 2020, 9:15 PM CDT for Fayette County, Illinois. It took effect at Mar 19, 2020, 8:40 PM CDT. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2020, 9:15 PM CDT (02:15 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 19, 2020, 8:40 PM CDT
Expired
Mar 23, 2020, 7:40 PM CDT
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Fayette County, IL

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Kaskaskia River at Vandalia (VNDI2). The gauge peaked at 21.82 ft at Mar 21, 2020, 7:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate15202503/1903/2003/2103/2203/2303/2403/25
Action stage
16 ft
Minor stage
18 ft
Moderate stage
24 ft
Major stage
26 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05592500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

568 
WGUS43 KLSX 190215
FLWLSX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
915 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Illinois...

  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-200214-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0072.200320T1225Z-200324T1708Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200320T1225Z.200321T1200Z.200323T1108Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* from Friday morning to Tuesday afternoon.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday morning 
  and crest near 21.0 feet by Saturday morning. The river is forecast
  to fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/19  03/20  03/21  03/22  03/23

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   13.19      13.7   17.9   21.0   20.4   17.9

&&

LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       

$$
10 follow-up statements
435 
WGUS83 KLSX 191643
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1143 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

 
	Kaskaskia River... 
	
			at Vandalia

			at Carlyle TW

			
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-202243-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.200320T0208Z-200324T0515Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200320T0208Z.200321T0600Z.200322T2315Z.NO/
1143 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* from this evening to late Monday night.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and to 
  crest near 21.5 feet by early Saturday morning. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/20  03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   15.76      20.3   21.5   19.6   16.2   14.9


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-202243-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1143 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 424.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 424.7 feet by early Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/20  03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.55     424.6  424.7  424.7  424.7  424.7


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
467 
WGUS83 KLSX 200142
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
842 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois..

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-210141-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.200320T0140Z-200324T0945Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T0600Z.200323T0345Z.NO/
842 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* from this evening to late Monday night.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 22.5 feet Saturday morning, then 
  fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/20  03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   18.22      20.8   22.5   20.1   16.8   15.3


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-210141-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
842 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 424.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain steady near 424.5.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/20  03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.55     424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
362 
WGUS83 KLSX 201639
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1139 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-212239-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200325T0000Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1800Z.200323T1800Z.NO/
1139 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday evening.
* At 11:00 AM Friday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 23.0 feet by tomorrow early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Monday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Agricultural levee begins to be slightly 
  overtopped.  No residences are affected at this level.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   20.70      22.8   22.1   18.7   15.6   14.3


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-212239-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1139 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM Friday the stage was 424.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 424.5 feet.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.52     424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
360 
WGUS83 KLSX 210206
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
906 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...
 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-220205-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200324T2315Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1800Z.200323T1715Z.NO/
906 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Friday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 22.4 feet by Saturday early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Monday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   21.44      22.2   21.8   18.7   15.7   14.2

&&

LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       

$$

ILC027-220205-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
906 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Friday the stage was 424.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 424.5 feet.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/21  03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.53     424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5

&&

LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       

$$
900 
WGUS83 KLSX 211551
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1050 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...
 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-222150-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200324T2145Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1215Z.200323T1545Z.NO/
1050 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM Saturday the stage was 21.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is fcresting this afternoon, and is expected to fall
  below flood stage late Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   21.76      21.0   18.5   15.7   14.1   13.4


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-222150-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1050 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Saturday the stage was 424.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise to near 424.6 feet by this afternoon.
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.56     424.6  424.5  424.5  424.5  424.5


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
733 
WGUS83 KLSX 220052
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
752 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...
 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-230051-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200324T2034Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1215Z.200323T1434Z.NO/
752 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  7:30 PM Saturday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   21.40      20.8   18.3   15.6   14.2   13.6

&&

LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       

$$

ILC027-230051-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
752 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Saturday the stage was 424.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise to near 424.6 feet by early Sunday
  morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/22  03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.57     424.6  424.6  424.6  424.5  424.5

&&

LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       

$$
993 
WGUS83 KLSX 221509
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1009 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...

  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-232108-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200324T2034Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1215Z.200323T1434Z.NO/
1009 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 20.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   20.46      18.3   15.6   14.1   13.3   13.0


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-232108-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1009 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 424.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 424.6 feet.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.61     424.6  424.6  424.6  424.6  424.5


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
122 
WGUS83 KLSX 230109
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
808 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois..

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-240108-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200324T2125Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1215Z.200323T1525Z.NO/
808 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  7:30 PM Sunday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   19.64      18.4   15.8   15.5   17.1   17.3


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-240108-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
808 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Sunday the stage was 424.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 424.6 feet.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/23  03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.62     424.6  424.6  424.6  424.6  424.6


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
500 
WGUS83 KLSX 231551
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1051 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at 
  
      Vandalia

      Carlyle Tailwater
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-242150-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200325T0200Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1215Z.200323T2000Z.NO/
1051 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* Until this afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM Monday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to fall back below flood stage this afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   18.36      15.8   15.5   16.8   17.8   15.7


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-242150-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1051 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* Until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Monday the stage was 424.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* The river is forecast to remain near 424.6 feet through Saturday
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   424.63     424.6  424.6  424.6  424.6  424.6


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
526 
WGUS83 KLSX 240040
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
740 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-240110-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-200325T0200Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200319T2357Z.200321T1215Z.200323T1915Z.NO/
740 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 2:15 PM Monday.
* The river will continue falling to 14.6 feet Wednesday morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     03/24  03/25  03/26  03/27  03/28

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.48      16.0   14.6   14.3   14.2   13.5


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 18, 6:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 18, 6:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
655 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

We are still looking at an active period late tonight through
Thursday night. This evening looks tranquil with spotty light
precipitation/drizzle as low clouds and fog settle in as the
evening progresses. The next round of showers and thunderstorms
will impact the area overnight. A backing and intensifying
southwesterly LLJ will result in strong WAA and moisture
convergence/lift and will be augmented with weak large scale
forcing attendant with a low-amplitude disturbance advancing into
the region. Differential advections will promote elevated
instability and this round should have a significant amount of
thunder. I expect storms to begin initiating between 08-10z
through the WAA regime with the greatest concentration initially
in central and southeast MO where MCON is strongest. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread quickly northeast through Thursday
morning associated with veering of the LLJ and motion of the upper
disturbance, and in general progression of the larger upstream
trof. Locally heavy downpours and perhaps small hail will be the
threats with any morning storms, and I think the quick motion will
limit excessive rainfall potential and any flood threat would be
minor and quite isolated should one arise.

Present thinking is this morning wave of showers and thunderstorms
will exit the region to the northeast by 17-18z. There are still
questions to the degree of air mass recovery and destabilization
in the wake of the morning rain. That said there is increased
confidence that in the wake of the morning rain and lifting warm
front, clouds will thin/decrease and allow for good heating with
temps rising into the upper 60s to perhaps mid 70s. The heating
along with increasing low level moisture i.e. surface dew points
in the 60s,and increasing mid level lapse rates should result in
surface-based instability from 700-1200+ j/kg through the warm
sector during the afternoon and into the evening, along and ahead
of the eastward moving surface trof/dryline and southward
advancing cold front. Deep layer shear is stout at 50+ knots and
the instability and parameter space, combined with only weak large
scale forcing attendant with the weakening upper trof, would
suggest scattered coverage with supercells the dominant mode.
Regions of more concentrated coverage of storms are possible and
the largest signal at this time suggests coverage of storms from
southeast MO into southwest IL may be higher than other areas. All
severe weather threats are possible - large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes, and this includes potentially significant severe.
I think by midnight or so the severe weather and overall
thunderstorm threat will have shifted to the east of the CWA. The
advancing cold front will then surge southeastward through the
overnight hours with strong CAA in its wake.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Friday through the weekend still look quite chilly with well below
average temperatures for mid-March. The cold front will continue
to move through the southeast CWA early Friday morning with strong
CAA, post-frontal stratus, and falling temps.

A rather strong high pressure system centered to our north and
then northeast will dominate Saturday into Sunday. There are
still suggestions that a weak wave in the flow aloft could bring
some light precipitation on Sunday.

The first half of next week could yield several chances of
precipitation. There is poor run to run and model to model
continuity among the deterministic and even ensembles with daily
features. The overall pattern will feature a series of short wave
trofs traversing the region during this time frame but timing and
location varies yielding low confidence on the forecast specifics.
There seems to be better agreement today that the highest
precipitation chance will be centered on the Tuesday time frame.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

A weak sfc front remains stationary across the center of the CWA.
This front may sink south slightly this evening. Cigs shud lower
thru the evening and tonight ahead of the approaching warm front.
This warm front, with a strong LLJ, will bring TSRA to the area
Thurs morning. The warm front, and storms, shud lift thru the
region during the morning leaving the late morning and afternoon
VFR and dry. Winds will be light overnight and gradually become SW
Thurs afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Other than that mentioned above,
TSRA, possibly severe, are expected to develop Thurs afternoon and
continue into the evening hours. Currently, the best chances are
SE of the terminals. However, enough uncertainty exists currently
that have kept a VCTS mention for now. Will modify forecast as
confidence increases.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 18, 4:05 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
405 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-192115-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
405 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected late tonight. The strongest storms may
contain small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected on Thursday morning. These storms may
contain small hail.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday afternoon and
evening, with the greatest probability across southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are
all possible with any severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed on Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Glass

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 18, 9:01 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXAdams35 days
Mar 19, 3:43 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchLSXBond, Clinton, Fayette, Marion, Monroe, Randolph and 2 more21 hr
Mar 19, 11:06 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXSaint Clair7 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.