Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 48, NWS St. Louis, MO

February 10, 2020Fayette County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Feb 10, 2020, 10:18 AM CST for Fayette County, Illinois. It took effect at Feb 10, 2020, 4:30 PM CST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 10, 2020, 10:18 AM CST (16:18 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 10, 2020, 4:30 PM CST
Expired
Feb 14, 2020, 7:21 PM CST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Fayette County, IL

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Kaskaskia River at Vandalia (VNDI2). The gauge peaked at 18.23 ft at Feb 12, 2020, 11:00 AM CST.

actionminormoderate15202502/1002/1102/1202/1302/1402/1502/16
Action stage
16 ft
Minor stage
18 ft
Moderate stage
24 ft
Major stage
26 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05592500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

586 
WGUS43 KLSX 101618
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1018 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following river in Illinois...
 

  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-112217-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0048.200210T2230Z-200215T1400Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200210T2230Z.200212T0600Z.200214T0800Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* from this afternoon to Saturday morning.
* At 10:00 AM Monday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and crest near 20.0 feet by early Wednesday morning. The 
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage by early Friday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/11  02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.17      19.4   20.0   19.2   17.8   16.6


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$
9 follow-up statements
026 
WGUS83 KLSX 110220
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
820 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

  
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-120219-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200216T0300Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200211T0834Z.200212T0600Z.200214T2100Z.NO/
820 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Saturday evening.
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tonight and to crest near 20.0 feet by early Wednesday morning. The
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/11  02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.51      18.4   19.9   19.1   18.3   17.5


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-120219-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
820 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near 425.9 feet.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/11  02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.92     425.9  425.9  425.9  425.8  425.8


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
368 
WGUS83 KLSX 111602
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1001 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...
 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-122200-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200217T1930Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200212T0000Z.200215T0600Z.200216T1330Z.NO/
1001 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and
  to crest near 19.2 feet by early Saturday morning. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.61      18.2   17.8   18.6   19.2   18.1

&&

LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       

$$

ILC027-122200-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1001 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 426.0 feet by early Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.90     425.9  426.0  426.0  426.0  426.0

&&

LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       

$$
285 
WGUS83 KLSX 120232
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
832 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois..

  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-130231-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200217T1930Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200212T0320Z.200215T0000Z.200216T1330Z.NO/
832 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and to 
  crest near 19.2 feet by Friday evening. The river is forecast to 
  fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.95      18.1   17.5   18.6   19.2   18.1


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-130231-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
832 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 426.0 feet by early Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/12  02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.90     425.9  426.0  426.0  426.0  426.0


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
234 
WGUS83 KLSX 121603
FLSLSX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1002 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...
 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-132201-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200218T1200Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200216T0000Z.200217T0600Z.NO/
1002 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Tuesday morning.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 19.6 feet by Saturday evening, 
  then fall below flood stage early Monday morning.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...State Highway J just east of County Road 206
  begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   18.22      18.2   18.4   19.3   19.3   17.5

&&

LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       

$$

ILC027-132201-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1002 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain near steady at 425.9 feet.
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 424.5 feet...Some cabins just below the dam are 
  inundated.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.88     425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9

&&

LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       

$$
989 
WGUS83 KLSX 130206
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
805 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at
  
      Vandalia

      Carlyle Tailwater
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-140204-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200218T0130Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200214T1800Z.200215T1800Z.200216T1930Z.NO/
805 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* Until Sunday evening.
* At 7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to crest near 18.7 feet Saturday afternoon.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   18.16      17.8   17.9   18.5   18.4   16.7


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-140204-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
805 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* Until further notice.
* At 7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* The river is forecast to remain steady near 425.9 feet through at
  least Monday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/13  02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.92     425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
852 
WGUS83 KLSX 131603
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1003 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
  
  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-142204-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200217T2200Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200215T0600Z.200216T1600Z.NO/
1003 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Thursday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 18.7 feet by early Saturday 
  morning, then fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   18.17      18.4   18.7   18.2   16.8   16.2


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-142203-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1003 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Thursday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to remain steady near 425.9 feet through
  Saturday morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.88     425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
170 
WGUS83 KLSX 140143
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
743 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at 
  
      Vandalia

      Carlyle Tailwater
  

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-150742-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200217T1800Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200215T0600Z.200216T1200Z.NO/
743 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At 7:00 PM Thursday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to crest near 18.6 feet Saturday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   18.15      18.6   18.0   16.6   16.1   15.9


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-150742-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
743 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater
* Until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM Thursday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* The river is forecast to remain near 425.9 feet through at least
  Tuesday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/14  02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.88     425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9  425.9


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
787 
WGUS83 KLSX 141500
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
859 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Illinois...
 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
  
  Kaskaskia River at Carlyle Tailwater

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-152058-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200216T1200Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.200215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.200215T0600Z.NO/
859 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia
* until Sunday morning.
* At  8:30 AM Friday the stage was 17.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river is expected to rise to near flood stage this evening.
* Impact:  At 18.0 feet...Flood Stage.  Minor flooding begins.  
  Unprotected farmland begins to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18  02/19

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.82      17.8   16.9   15.7   15.4   15.2


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

ILC027-152058-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRLI2.1.ER.200108T2330Z.200118T1300Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
859 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Kaskaskia River at Carlyle TW
* until further notice.
* At  8:30 AM Friday the stage was 425.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 423.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 426.0 feet by early Monday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18  02/19

Kaskaskia River
  Carlyle TW     423.5   425.88     425.9  425.9  426.0  426.0  426.0


&&


LAT...LON 3862 8936 3861 8933 3851 8937 3849 8942
      3854 8942                       



$$
993 
WGUS83 KLSX 150122
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
721 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

 
  Kaskaskia River at Vandalia

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 48 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

ILC051-150151-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-200216T1200Z/
/VNDI2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
721 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Kaskaskia River at Vandalia.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to 16.9 feet Sunday morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              6 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     02/15  02/16  02/17  02/18  02/19

Kaskaskia River
  Vandalia        18.0   17.64      17.6   16.9   15.7   15.4   15.2


&&


LAT...LON 3903 8910 3903 8906 3885 8909 3879 8919
      3882 8922                       



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 10, 5:02 AM CST, 5 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 5:02 AM CST, 5 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
502 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

A cold front has shifted just southeast of the forecast area
early this morning, but lingering post frontal light rain will
continue across southeast MO and southwest IL this morning,
finally shifting southeast of our forecast region by noon. A
surface high centered over southeastern Nebraska will move east-
southeastward through the region with much colder temperatures for
today, at or slightly below normal. Warm air advection ahead of a
weak southwest flow shortwave may bring a brief period of light
rain or light snow to parts of central and southeast MO tonight,
but little if any snow accumulation is expected. Dry conditions
are expected on Tuesday with surface ridging continuing across the
region with any precipitation south of the forecast area. Highs
on Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today and right
at seasonal normals.

GKS

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

A closed, cut-off upper level low over southern CA will open up
as it interacts with northern stream energy and bring us a
potential for wintry precipitation from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night as it approaches our area, followed by much
colder conditions for Thursday through Friday. The NAM model is a
little quicker bringing precipitation into our area already by
late Tuesday night, while the operational GFS keeps most of the
precipitation south of our area until Wednesday morning. The
highest QPF should occur across southeast MO and southwest IL on
Wednesday with an area of deformation type precipitation
potentially impacting much of the forecast area Wednesday night
per the GFS model solution. Although the surface low will remain
well south of the forecast area, moving northeastward into the TN
Valley region by early Wednesday evening, placing us in the cold
sector of the storm system with the 850 mb low moving
northeastward through southeast MO and southwest IL Wednesday
afternoon and early evening, there will still likely be mixed
precipitation types across the forecast area late Tuesday night
and Wednesday. There is uncertainty in the exact precipitation
types this far out, but it appears that rain and freezing rain is
favored across southeast MO and southwest IL with a mix of snow
and sleet further north across central MO, and light snow across
northeast MO and west central IL. By Wednesday night the
precipitation type should change over to all snow across the
entire area with the snow tapering off to flurries late Wednesday
night. It is too early to determine exact precipitation amounts,
but it appears that significant snow and ice accumulations are
possible which would impact travel Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Preliminary forecast snow totals are 1 to 3 inches across
northeast and central MO and west central IL.  Very cold, well
below normal temperatures are forecast for Thursday and Thursday
night as northwesterly upper level flow sends a strong 1040 mb
surface high, very cold air mass into our area from the northern
Plains. The operational GFS Model brings the -14 degree C 850 mb
isotherm southward to near STL by 00Z Friday. Will see much warmer
temperatures by Saturday as southerly surface winds return and
strengthen as the surface high shifts well east of the region. The
chance of precipitation may return Saturday night and Sunday
morning, but the precipitation type may be predominately liquid
rain as the surface low track is north of the forecast area with
the trailing cold front moving eastward through our region Sunday
morning.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 455 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

IFR/low MVFR ceilings will move out of the terminals later this
morning as drier air moves into the region from the northwest.
Then dry and VFR conditions are expected the rest of the period.
Northwest winds are expected through this evening with winds
turning light tonight.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

IFR ceilings will slowly rise to MVFR and then clear out by 18Z as
drier air moves into the region from the northwest. Then dry and
VFR conditions are expected the rest of the period. Northwest
winds are expected through the period.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 10, 4:23 AM CST, 5 hours 55 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
423 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111030-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
423 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A wintry mix of precipitation is expected late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible
across northeast and central Missouri and west central Illinois.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

GKS

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.