Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 119, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 16, 2020Jefferson County, Saint Louis County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at May 16, 2020, 9:19 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Saint Louis County, Missouri. It took effect at May 18, 2020, 2:48 AM CDT. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2020, 9:19 PM CDT (02:19 UTC)
In effect from
May 18, 2020, 2:48 AM CDT
Expired
May 23, 2020, 9:23 AM CDT
In force
5 days
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Jefferson County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Meramec River at Arnold (ARNM7).

Action stage
22 ft
Minor stage
24 ft
Moderate stage
35 ft
Major stage
38 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07019300, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

490 
WGUS43 KLSX 170219
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
919 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Missouri...
 

  Meramec River near Arnold

  
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-180218-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0119.200519T0100Z-200524T0300Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200519T0100Z.200521T0000Z.200522T2100Z.NO/
919 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* from Monday evening to Saturday May 23.
* At  9:00 PM Saturday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Monday evening 
  and crest near 27.0 feet by Wednesday evening. The river is 
  forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/17  05/18  05/19  05/20  05/21

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   18.97      20.6   22.9   25.0   26.6   27.0


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
13 follow-up statements
261 
WGUS83 KLSX 171537
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1037 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-182136-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.200518T1525Z-200524T0051Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T1525Z.200520T1200Z.200522T1851Z.NO/
1037 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* from Monday morning to Saturday evening.
* At 10:00 AM Sunday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late 
  morning and to crest near 27.3 feet by Wednesday morning. The river
  is forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/18  05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   20.82      23.6   26.2   27.3   27.0   24.8


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
090 
WGUS83 KLSX 180233
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
933 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Meramec River... 
  
		   near Sullivan

		   near Arnold

  
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC055-221-190233-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0122.200518T0800Z-200521T0000Z/
/SLLM7.1.ER.200518T0800Z.200518T1800Z.200519T1800Z.NO/
933 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Sullivan
* from late tonight to Wednesday evening.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 8.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  and to crest near 13.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 12.0 feet...The main entrance gate at Onondaga Cave 
  State Park begins flooding near this height.  This may eventually  
  force the park to use the rear entrance as the primary entrance to 
  the park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/18  05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22

Meramec River
  Sullivan        11.0    8.91      12.2   11.9    8.2    6.3    5.5


&&


LAT...LON 3800 9120 3806 9125 3829 9109 3840 9090
      3837 9082                       



$$

MOC099-189-190233-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.200518T0748Z-200524T0834Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0748Z.200520T1200Z.200523T0234Z.NO/
933 PM CDT Sun May 17 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* from late tonight to Sunday May 24.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight 
  tonight and to crest near 28.6 feet by Wednesday morning. The river
  is forecast to fall below flood stage by Friday before midnight.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/18  05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   23.18      24.7   27.6   28.6   28.3   25.8


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$

maples
738 
WGUS83 KLSX 181833
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

...The flood warning continues for the  Meramec River at the
following locations...
 
  Meramec River near Steelville

  Meramec River near Sullivan

  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC055-200031-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0130.000000T0000Z-200520T1200Z/
/SEEM7.1.ER.200518T1730Z.200519T0000Z.200519T0600Z.NO/
133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Steelville
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  1:00 PM Monday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 12.1 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage after midnight tonight.
* Impact:  At 12.0 feet...Agricultural and recreational areas along 
  the right bank flood.  At Adventure Outdoors west of Steelville, 
  the store begins to flood near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23

Meramec River
  Steelville      12.0   12.03      11.5    7.0    5.0    4.1    3.7


&&


LAT...LON 3793 9152 3800 9152 3806 9125 3801 9121




$$

MOC055-221-200031-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-200521T0412Z/
/SLLM7.1.ER.200518T0757Z.200519T0000Z.200519T2212Z.NO/
133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Sullivan
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  1:00 PM Monday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 13.4 feet by this evening, then
  fall below flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact:  At 12.0 feet...The main entrance gate at Onondaga Cave 
  State Park begins flooding near this height.  This may eventually  
  force the park to use the rear entrance as the primary entrance to 
  the park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23

Meramec River
  Sullivan        11.0   13.12      12.5    8.9    6.8    5.8    5.2


&&


LAT...LON 3800 9120 3806 9125 3829 9109 3840 9090
      3837 9082                       



$$

MOC099-189-200031-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T0325Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1800Z.200522T2125Z.NO/
133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday evening.
* At  1:00 PM Monday the stage was 25.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 28.0 feet by Wednesday early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   25.36      27.0   27.9   27.7   25.3   22.3


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
868 
WGUS83 KLSX 190254
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
953 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Meramec River near... 
  
  Sullivan

  Arnold

  
River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC055-221-200252-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-200521T0040Z/
/SLLM7.1.ER.200518T0757Z.200518T2115Z.200519T1840Z.NO/
953 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Sullivan
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Monday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 12.0 feet...The main entrance gate at Onondaga Cave 
  State Park begins flooding near this height.  This may eventually  
  force the park to use the rear entrance as the primary entrance to 
  the park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23

Meramec River
  Sullivan        11.0   13.17      12.0    8.4    6.6    5.6    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3800 9120 3806 9125 3829 9109 3840 9090
      3837 9082                       



$$

MOC099-189-200252-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T0234Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1800Z.200522T2034Z.NO/
953 PM CDT Mon May 18 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Monday the stage was 26.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.9 feet by Wednesday early 
  afternoon, then fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/19  05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   25.97      26.9   27.8   27.6   25.2   22.2


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$

maples
853 
WGUS83 KLSX 191549
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1049 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-202148-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T0112Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1200Z.200522T1912Z.NO/
1049 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 26.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 27.0 feet tomorrow morning, 
  then fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23  05/24

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   26.43      27.0   26.3   24.5   22.8   21.3


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
593 
WGUS83 KLSX 200121
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
821 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-210122-
/O.ROU.KLSX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VLLM7.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
821 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Forecast information for
  Meramec River at Valley Park.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to rise to near 15.4 feet tomorrow
  morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/20  05/21  05/22  05/23  05/24

Meramec River
  Valley Park     16.0   14.93      15.4   13.6    9.1    6.5    5.2


&&


LAT...LON 3853 9056 3855 9056 3857 9043 3854 9043




$$
375 
WGUS83 KLSX 201733
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1233 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-212332-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200523T2230Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1800Z.200522T1630Z.NO/
1233 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 12:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river cresting now and is forecast to fall below flood stage 
  Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 27.0 feet...Meramec Bottom Road between Wells Road and 
  Kerth Road begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/21  05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   26.71      26.4   24.3   22.8   21.4   20.3


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
933 
WGUS83 KLSX 210138
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
838 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-220137-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200523T1930Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1245Z.200522T1330Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 26.0 feet...Athletic fields east of I-55 begin flooding 
  near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/21  05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   26.57      26.0   24.1   22.6   21.4   20.3


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
433 
WGUS83 KLSX 211441
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
941 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-222041-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200523T1930Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1245Z.200522T1330Z.NO/
941 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  9:00 AM Thursday the stage was 25.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 25.1 feet...St. Louis County closes the following roads 
  at this height:  Butler Hill west of Summerhedge Place, Meramec 
  Bottom Road between Hageman Road and Highway 21, Hawkins Road south
  of Meramec Bottom Road, and Old Telegraph Road at Earl Widman 
  County Park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   25.84      24.1   22.6   21.4   20.3   19.6


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
623 
WGUS83 KLSX 220116
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
816 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-230115-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T0400Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1245Z.200522T2200Z.NO/
816 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Saturday evening.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 25.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact:  At 25.1 feet...St. Louis County closes the following roads 
  at this height:  Butler Hill west of Summerhedge Place, Meramec 
  Bottom Road between Hageman Road and Highway 21, Hawkins Road south
  of Meramec Bottom Road, and Old Telegraph Road at Earl Widman 
  County Park.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/22  05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   25.24      24.6   23.2   22.0   20.9   20.2


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
717 
WGUS83 KLSX 221339
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
839 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-231938-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T1600Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1245Z.200523T1000Z.NO/
839 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Sunday morning.
* At  8:00 AM Friday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.

&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   24.84      23.9   22.5   21.2   20.7   20.8


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
551 
WGUS83 KLSX 230216
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
916 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-240216-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T1800Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1245Z.200523T1200Z.NO/
916 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Meramec River near Arnold
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:00 PM Friday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Corisande Hills Road begins flooding at this
  height.  Meramec Bottom Road between Hageman Road and Highway 21 
  begins flooding.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/23  05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   24.42      24.0   22.5   21.2   20.9   20.9


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$
646 
WGUS83 KLSX 231424
FLSLSX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
923 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  Meramec River near Arnold

River forecasts are based on observed precipitation and forecast 
precipitation for the next 24 hours.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even 
higher than predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor 
this developing situation and issue follow up statements as 
conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC099-189-231453-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0119.000000T0000Z-200524T1800Z/
/ARNM7.1.ER.200518T0624Z.200520T1245Z.200523T1245Z.NO/
923 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Meramec River near Arnold.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  7:45 AM Saturday.
* The river will continue falling to 22.7 feet by tomorrow morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest               7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     05/24  05/25  05/26  05/27  05/28

Meramec River
  Arnold          24.0   23.97      22.7   21.7   21.5   21.5   21.5


&&


LAT...LON 3848 9043 3848 9039 3846 9032 3841 9034
     3845 9043                        



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 16, 6:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 6:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
626 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as an upper
level trough passes through the central CONUS. Two features of note
were analyzed within the broad upper trough this afternoon; a weak
negatively tilted shortwave extending from the central Plains into
Louisiana and a closed low moving ESE through the northern
Plains. A surface low was analyzed in the vicinity of the
Arklatex, with a warm front extending north and east into
southern SE MO and southern IL.

Several areas of showers and storms have developed in the mid-
Mississippi Valley along the elevated portion of the front. The most
vigorous convection is along and east of the Mississippi River,
where limited clouds have allowed for MUCAPE to build to around
2,000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear in this area is rather limited,
so individual updrafts have been fairly short-lived. Nonetheless,
at least one storm has pushed up to near severe levels and I
couldn't rule out another storm or two following suit.

These storms have also been very efficient rainfall producers.
With PWs in the upper quartile of seasonal climatology and a
tendency for new updrafts to develop in the immediate wake of
dying convection, we've had reports of 1-1.5" per hour beneath the
heaviest cores, resulting in flash flooding in a few areas.
Fortunately there does not appear to be any sort of anchoring
feature to focus these storms over a particular area, so I think
additional flash flooding will be rather isolated.

As we move into the evening hours, storm coverage will wane with
the instability. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned negatively-
tilted wave will continue to the ENE, drawing the surface low and
associated warm front north into the Mid-Mississippi Valley around
midnight. The surface low will then deepen and push to our NE
tomorrow morning as it interacts with the northern upper low,
before eventually dragging a cold front through the area tomorrow
afternoon.

As larger scale forcing intensifies in the early morning hours, CAMs
are in good agreement increasing precip coverage after roughly
midnight. Scattered to widespread storms are then expected to
continue until the cold front sweeps through the area during the day
tomorrow. Instability is expected to build to around 1,000 J/kg
ahead of the ahead of the front tomorrow, supporting yet another
round of thunderstorms. Much like today, effective bulk shear
looks fairly limited, with SREF guidance showing a less than 50
percent chance of us topping even 30 kts. Nonetheless this
CAPE/shear parameter space coupled with the frontal forcing would
support a limited severe threat in southern Illinois tomorrow
afternoon.

BSH

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Large scale omega block still on track to take hold at the
beginning of the week while a closed low sits and spins over the
eastern third of the CONUS. Surface ridging will develop beneath
the block, kicking off an extended period of quiet weather in the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Our proximity to the eastern CONUS low
will keep things on the cloudy and cool side for the early portion
of the week. The deep moisture associated with that low will wane
as we move through the week, resulting in less overcast to broken
stratus and more broken to scattered cu. This will allow
temperatures to gradually build through the week. Some guidance is
showing a chance for diurnal showers toward the end of the week,
through the signal for this is quite weak, so have omitted it from
the forecast at this point.

BSH

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Showers and storms across the region will continue to decrease in
intensity and coverage this evening before picking back up around
06z as low pressure moves through the region. I think we'll only
see isolated to perhaps scattered thunder in the overnight hours,
so have left thunder out of the TAFs until storms become more
likely after sunrise. Scattered to widespread showers and storms
will then persist until a cold front moves through the region in
the afternoon, ushering the precip out of the area. Given
questions around exact timing and coverage of tomorrow's storms,
have just gone with VCTS and will update as details become more
clear.

Guidance in good agreement showing cigs quickly falling in the
early morning hours as ample low level moisture moves into the
region with the previously mentioned low. I'm not very confident
on exactly how low cigs will drop, but at this point much of the
guidance has all terminals dropping below 1,000 ft, so ended up
going IFR at all terminals.

BSH

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 3:56 PM CDT, 5 hours 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-172100-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
356 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue through early this evening along and east
of the Mississippi River, where there is a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Localized flash flooding is possible in areas
that have already received heavy rainfall today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue on Sunday. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible for areas near and south and
east of Saint Louis during Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

BSH

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 16, 4:42 PM CDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
442 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLOOD            WILSONVILLE             39.07N 89.86W
05/16/2020                   MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER REPORTED COMING OUT OF FIELDS AND
            FLOWING OVER ROUTE 138 BETWEEN ROUTE 4 AND
            159.

&&

BRITT

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 7:50 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXJefferson, Saint Louis3 hr
May 16, 8:32 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXGasconade, Montgomery3 days
May 16, 8:58 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchLSXCrawford, Franklin, Iron, Jefferson, Lincoln, Madison and 8 more21 hr
May 16, 9:14 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXSaint Charles5 days
May 16, 9:14 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXPerry, Sainte Genevieve32 days
May 17, 1:36 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXFranklin, Lincoln, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis6 hr
May 17, 2:02 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLSXSaint Charles, Saint Louis5 hr
May 17, 4:39 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXSainte Genevieve, Saint Francois6 hr
May 17, 8:45 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXPike51 hr
May 17, 9:51 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXGasconade, Montgomery49 hr
May 17, 10:35 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXCrawford, Washington48 hr
May 17, 2:15 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXReynolds29 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.