Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS St. Louis, MO

Adams County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Washington County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Marion County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

824 
WGUS63 KLSX 090912
FFALSX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
312 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020


ILZ095-096-MOZ027-034-092115-
/O.EXA.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams IL-Brown IL-Marion MO-Monroe MO-
Including the cities of Quincy, Mount Sterling, and Hannibal
312 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Saint Louis has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of west central Illinois 
  and northeast Missouri...including the following counties...in 
  west central Illinois...Adams IL and Brown IL. In northeast 
  Missouri...Marion MO and Monroe MO. 

* From Friday morning through late Friday night

* Widespread heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-092115-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-
Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-
Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-Washington MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Vandalia, Centralia, Salem, 
Chester, Sparta, Alton, Edwardsville, Belleville, Cahokia, 
Saint Charles, Washington, Union, Sullivan, Saint Louis, 
and Farmington
312 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* portions of Illinois and Missouri...including the following 
  counties...in Illinois...Bond IL...Calhoun IL...Clinton IL... 
  Fayette IL...Greene IL...Jersey IL...Macoupin IL...Madison 
  IL...Marion IL...Monroe IL...Montgomery IL...Randolph IL... 
  Saint Clair IL and Washington IL. In Missouri...Crawford MO... 
  Franklin MO...Gasconade MO...Iron MO...Jefferson MO...Lincoln 
  MO...Madison MO...Reynolds MO...Saint Charles MO...Saint 
  Francois MO...Saint Louis City MO...Saint Louis MO...Sainte 
  Genevieve MO...Warren MO and Washington MO. 

* From Friday morning through Saturday morning

* Widespread heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches with locally higher 
  amounts. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

ILZ097-MOZ035-036-041-042-047>051-092115-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pike IL-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-
Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Including the cities of Pittsfield, Bowling Green, Columbia, 
Mexico, Jefferson City, and Fulton
312 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* portions of west central Illinois and Missouri...including the 
  following counties...in west central Illinois...Pike IL. In 
  Missouri...Audrain MO...Boone MO...Callaway MO...Cole MO... 
  Moniteau MO...Montgomery MO...Osage MO...Pike MO and Ralls MO. 

* From Friday morning through late Friday night

* Widespread heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches.

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

Gosselin

876 
WGUS63 KLSX 092151
FFALSX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
351 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020


ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-101000-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-
Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-
Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-Washington MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Vandalia, Centralia, Salem, 
Chester, Sparta, Alton, Edwardsville, Belleville, Cahokia, 
Saint Charles, Washington, Union, Sullivan, Saint Louis, 
and Farmington
351 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Illinois and Missouri...including the following 
  counties...in Illinois...Bond IL...Calhoun IL...Clinton IL... 
  Fayette IL...Greene IL...Jersey IL...Macoupin IL...Madison 
  IL...Marion IL...Monroe IL...Montgomery IL...Randolph IL... 
  Saint Clair IL and Washington IL. In Missouri...Crawford MO... 
  Franklin MO...Gasconade MO...Iron MO...Jefferson MO...Lincoln 
  MO...Madison MO...Reynolds MO...Saint Charles MO...Saint 
  Francois MO...Saint Louis City MO...Saint Louis MO...Sainte 
  Genevieve MO...Warren MO and Washington MO. 

* from Friday morning through Saturday morning

* Widespread heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches with locally higher 
  amounts. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

ILZ095>097-MOZ027-034>036-041-042-047>051-101000-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-
Boone MO-Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
Montgomery MO-
Including the cities of Quincy, Mount Sterling, Pittsfield, 
Hannibal, Bowling Green, Columbia, Mexico, Jefferson City, 
and Fulton
351 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of west central Illinois and Missouri...including the 
  following counties...in west central Illinois...Adams IL... 
  Brown IL and Pike IL. In Missouri...Audrain MO...Boone MO... 
  Callaway MO...Cole MO...Marion MO...Moniteau MO...Monroe MO... 
  Montgomery MO...Osage MO...Pike MO and Ralls MO. 

* from Friday morning through late Friday night

* Widespread heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches.

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

GKS

367 
WGUS63 KLSX 100958
FFALSX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-102300-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-
Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-
Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-Washington MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Vandalia, Centralia, Salem, 
Chester, Sparta, Alton, Edwardsville, Belleville, Cahokia, 
Saint Charles, Washington, Union, Sullivan, Saint Louis, 
and Farmington
358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Illinois and Missouri...including the following 
  counties...in Illinois...Bond IL...Calhoun IL...Clinton IL... 
  Fayette IL...Greene IL...Jersey IL...Macoupin IL...Madison 
  IL...Marion IL...Monroe IL...Montgomery IL...Randolph IL... 
  Saint Clair IL and Washington IL. In Missouri...Crawford MO... 
  Franklin MO...Gasconade MO...Iron MO...Jefferson MO...Lincoln 
  MO...Madison MO...Reynolds MO...Saint Charles MO...Saint 
  Francois MO...Saint Louis City MO...Saint Louis MO...Sainte 
  Genevieve MO...Warren MO and Washington MO. 

* through Saturday morning

* Widespread additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally 
  higher amounts. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

ILZ095>097-MOZ027-034>036-041-042-047>051-102300-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0001.200110T1200Z-200111T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-
Boone MO-Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
Montgomery MO-
Including the cities of Quincy, Mount Sterling, Pittsfield, 
Hannibal, Bowling Green, Columbia, Mexico, Jefferson City, 
and Fulton
358 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of west central Illinois and Missouri...including the 
  following counties...in west central Illinois...Adams IL... 
  Brown IL and Pike IL. In Missouri...Audrain MO...Boone MO... 
  Callaway MO...Cole MO...Marion MO...Moniteau MO...Monroe MO... 
  Montgomery MO...Osage MO...Pike MO and Ralls MO. 

* through late tonight

* Widespread additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with locally 
  higher amounts..

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

TES

969 
WGUS63 KLSX 102153
FFALSX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
353 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020


ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-111000-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-
Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-
Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-Washington MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Vandalia, Centralia, Salem, 
Chester, Sparta, Alton, Edwardsville, Belleville, Cahokia, 
Saint Charles, Washington, Union, Sullivan, Saint Louis, 
and Farmington
353 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of Illinois and Missouri...including the following 
  counties...in Illinois...Bond IL...Calhoun IL...Clinton IL... 
  Fayette IL...Greene IL...Jersey IL...Macoupin IL...Madison 
  IL...Marion IL...Monroe IL...Montgomery IL...Randolph IL... 
  Saint Clair IL and Washington IL. In Missouri...Crawford MO... 
  Franklin MO...Gasconade MO...Iron MO...Jefferson MO...Lincoln 
  MO...Madison MO...Reynolds MO...Saint Charles MO...Saint 
  Francois MO...Saint Louis City MO...Saint Louis MO...Sainte 
  Genevieve MO...Warren MO and Washington MO. 

* through Saturday morning

* Widespread additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally 
  higher amounts. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

ILZ095>097-MOZ027-034>036-041-042-047>051-111000-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-
Boone MO-Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
Montgomery MO-
Including the cities of Quincy, Mount Sterling, Pittsfield, 
Hannibal, Bowling Green, Columbia, Mexico, Jefferson City, 
and Fulton
353 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of west central Illinois and Missouri...including the 
  following counties...in west central Illinois...Adams IL... 
  Brown IL and Pike IL. In Missouri...Audrain MO...Boone MO... 
  Callaway MO...Cole MO...Marion MO...Moniteau MO...Monroe MO... 
  Montgomery MO...Osage MO...Pike MO and Ralls MO. 

* through late tonight

* Widespread additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with locally 
  higher amounts.. 

* Heavy rainfall will result in flooding of low lying or poor 
  drainage areas...and ultimately dangerous flash flooding on 
  smaller creeks and streams. Significant rises on larger 
  streams and rivers will also be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch is advanced notice that conditions are
favorable that may lead to flash flooding. People in the Watch
area, especially in flood prone areas, should use this time to
make preparations just in case. Stay informed, and be ready for
quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash Flood Warning
is issued.

&&

$$

GKS

611 
WGUS63 KLSX 110925
FFALSX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
325 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052-059>065-072>075-
084-085-099-111030-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-
Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-
Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-Saint Louis MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-Washington MO-
Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-
Reynolds MO-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Vandalia, Centralia, Salem, 
Chester, Sparta, Alton, Edwardsville, Belleville, Cahokia, 
Saint Charles, Washington, Union, Sullivan, Saint Louis, 
and Farmington
325 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of Illinois and Missouri has
been cancelled. Any existing or expected flooding is currently
being handled with Warning products. Please refer to those for the 
latest information on flooding. 

$$

ILZ095>097-MOZ027-034>036-041-042-047>051-111030-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200111T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-
Boone MO-Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
Montgomery MO-
Including the cities of Quincy, Mount Sterling, Pittsfield, 
Hannibal, Bowling Green, Columbia, Mexico, Jefferson City, 
and Fulton
325 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of west central Illinois and
Missouri has been cancelled. Any existing or expected flooding is
currently being handled with Warning products. Please refer to 
those for the latest information on flooding. 

$$

TES

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1156 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

A surface ridge of high pressure oriented from north to south is
nearly bisecting the CWA very early this morning. Aloft, a midlevel
ridge is expected to move across the mid-Mississippi Valley late
this afternoon and evening. General subsidence through much of the
atmosphere should help promote plenty of sunshine for today along
with near to slightly above normal temperatures. The warmer MAV MOS
values for today were preferred, with a tight gradient from
northeast to southwest (cooler to warmer). Highs are forecast to
range from the mid 30s in west-central and south-central Illinois to
the low 50s in portions of central and southeastern Missouri.

A warm front is expected to move through the CWA tonight with winds
veering from the east/southeast to the south. Increasing southerly
winds, low-level warm air advection, and increasing cloud cover
should force lows tonight to be quite a bit warmer than this
morning. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s
are expected across the region, which would be about 10-15 degrees
above normal for early/mid January.

Thursday will be characterized by an overcast sky, breezy southerly
winds, and temperatures rising into the 50s areawide within the warm
sector. Chances of showers will also be on the increase due to
increasing low-level moisture advection and mid/upper level forcing
for ascent via a weak shortwave trough ejecting out of the
southern Plains. Rainfall amounts for this period however look
light, generally on the order of a tenth of an inch or less. The
heavier rainfall will hold off another 24-36 hours.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

(Thursday Night)

The initial cold front is expected to stall out just northwest of
the CWA Thursday night as the mid/upper level ridge across the
southeastern CONUS amplifies. Shower activity should become more
widespread Thursday night in response to strengthening and more
focused low-level moisture advection. The strongest surface
convergence near the boundary however does stay a bit displaced to
the northwest and the strongest mid/upper level forcing
associated with the longwave trough remains well to our west.
That being said, rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75" are forecast
across much of the area Thursday night with the highest amounts in
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois where the strongest
low-level forcing should reside. This rainfall on its own should
not cause any problems, but more importantly, will help saturate
the soils for the heavier rainfall to come.

(Friday - Saturday Night)

The main period of concern heavy rainfall wise continues to look
like from late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.
During this time period, very strong low-level convergence exists
along the cold front with mid/upper level forcing for ascent
increasing dramatically ahead of the midlevel trough axis and
beneath the right-entrance region of a 130-kt jet streak across
the Upper Mississippi Valley. This deep, strong forcing throughout
the troposphere combined with a very slow-moving cold front
(i.e., training), near record precipitable water value waters and
isolated thunderstorms (efficiency), as well as already saturated
soils leads to an increasing concern for flash flooding. Total
rainfall amounts of 1.50-4.00" are expected across the area, with
most of that falling within a 6-12 hour window between late Friday
afternoon and early Saturday morning in any given location. The
big change with this forecast package with respect to the rainfall
totals is it looks like Friday night's rain is more focused
further northwest than 12-24 hours ago. About 2 inches are
forecast Friday night alone now near the I-44/I-55 corridors in
Missouri and Illinois respectively. Rainfall amounts in central
Missouri northeastward into west-central Illinois are also up to
an inch higher than yesterday, and as a result, will be adding
more counties into the ESF. Impacts from this heavy rainfall at
this point in time are expected to be widespread minor river
flooding and the possibility of flash flooding especially in low-
lying areas near smaller creeks and streams mainly Friday night.
If confidence continues to increase with future forecast packages
in the heavy rainfall potential, there likely will need to be a
flash flood watch issued at some point in time for portions of the
CWA.

Regarding the wintry side of the storm, there is more uncertainty,
but confidence is increasing for adverse winter weather along
accompanied by at least light snowfall accumulations to
northwestern sections of the forecast area. The main sources of
uncertainty at this time are the exact track of the system and the
strength of the mid/upper level trough axis. The deterministic
ECMWF/CMC develop a negatively tilted trough whereas the GFS does
not until it is east of the area. As a result, the ECMWF/CMC are
a bit further northwest, slower, and have more snowfall within a
more well-defined deformation zone. A blend of these two scenarios
with a slight nod to the slower/stronger solutions was favored at
this time. Light to moderate snowfall amounts appear likely with
this system on Saturday in the northwestern 1/2-1/3 of the CWA,
but exactly how much and where will be refined over the next
couple of days as confidence in the strength/track/timing of the
system increases. Right now, the EPS suggests several inches along
a KCOU>>KUIN axis which is fairly impressive considering the mean
is likely getting washed out to a degree. In fact, several
individual members of the EPS do in fact have maximum snowfall amounts
of 6-8" supporting this claim. Conceptually, many of the classic
signatures associated with heavy (>6") snow events are there for
this system including a midlevel trough axis that likely becomes
negatively tilted and a strengthening low-level cyclone passing to
south of the majority of the CWA.

Temperatures ahead of the cold front on Friday will be very warm
with highs reaching into the 50s to mid 60s. As the front very slow
moves through the area Friday night into early Saturday morning,
look for temperatures to drop fairly rapidly behind the boundary.
Dropping temperatures are expected on Saturday through the 30s
and into the 20s for some areas. Low temperatures Saturday night
are expected to be near to slightly below normal generally
bottoming out in the teens and twenties. Low temperatures have the
potential to be several degrees lower than forecast as winds
lighten up and sky cover decreases behind the departing storm
system if multiple inches of snow occurs.

(Sunday - Tuesday)

In comparison to Thursday through Saturday, much quieter weather is
in store to end the weekend and start off the following work week.
Dry weather is generally favored Sunday through Monday along with
above normal temperatures. Another system passes through the
Mississippi Valley Monday night bringing a low chance for mostly
light rain.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

VFR conditions will continue through through this afternoon and
into tonight. On Thursday morning MVFR stratus will begin to
overspread the area. A strong southerly LLJ will produce LLWS
tonight which will persist through 15-16Z Thursday morning. After
16Z surface winds will increase into the mid to upper teens,
gusting into the mid to upper 20s.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR conditions will continue through through this afternoon and
into tonight. MVFR stratus will begin to overspread the terminal
mid day on Thursday. A strong southerly LLJ will produce LLWS
tonight which will persist through 15-16Z Thursday morning. After
16Z surface winds will increase into the mid to upper teens,
gusting into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

MRM

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
338 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-090945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
338 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected with total rainfall amounts
of 1.50-4.00 inches are forecast across the area. The period of
heaviest rainfall should be from late Friday afternoon through early
Saturday morning. Please see the ESF for more details.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday night through
Friday night across parts of the area.

Snow is likely across central and northeastern Missouri as well as
western Illinois Saturday through Saturday evening. Light to moderate
accumulations are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Gosselin