Gale Warning 8, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
405 AM PST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...27/715 PM.

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected through the
weekend except for areas of low clouds across the interior Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue through Friday, with the strongest winds expected Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. High temperatures will be above
normal through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...28/324 AM.

Three days of winds on tap for portions of Southern CA. The
offshore push from the east will be fairly constant between 3 and
4 MB each morning. The north push...however...will peak between 7
and 8 MB this evening. This strong north push will only weaken by
a MB through Wed Afternoon but will fall to about 4.5 MB by dawn
Thu. These gradients will bring north winds to the area through
Wed morning and then a switch to the NE Wed afternoon as the north
push relaxes.

An inside slider tonight will bring northerly upper wind support
and enough cool air advection to drive it to the sfc. This and the
strong northerly gradients will be enough to bring warning level
gusts 60 to 70 mph to the VTA/LA mtns as well as the Santa Monica
mtns. Strong advisory level winds will occur either side of the
LA/VTA county line. Warning/advisory level gusts will continue
from a more NE direction into Thursday. Advisory level winds will
likely develop across the Malibu strip. The NE push is a little
more focused to the east and right now it look like the VTA coast
will not see very strong winds. The ending time of the winds may
be a little late and might see the winds dying off Thursday
morning after the diurnal peak rather than lasting into the
afternoon. The foothill area of the San Gabriel Valley will be
breezy as well but likely just under advisory levels.

Not quite sure about the winds for the SBA mtns just yet. It seems
like the main thrust of the winds will be to the east of the area
but since the watch does not start until evening have elected to
hold off for one more mdl run.

The strong north winds will bring some clouds and a very slight
chc of some showers to the north slopes Wednesday morning.

Coastal and vly areas will not see much change in temps through
the period with slightly above normal temps today. Maybe a degree
of cooling Wed and then a couple degrees of warming on Thu as
offshore flow combines with rising hgts from an approaching ridge.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...28/404 AM.

An east Pac ridge will continue over the state on Friday. The
offshore push from the east peaks and there will be short lived
Santa Ana wind event with advisory level gusts in the traditional
areas. Max temps will soar to well above normal with mid 70s to
lower 80s across the coasts and vlys.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the next 7 as the ridge peaks
in strength and offshore flow only weakens a little. The morning
canyon winds will likely be less than advisory strength but max
temps will be warmer and there will likely be some readings in the
mid 80s.

A trof will displace the ridge during the day on Sunday. Hgts will
lower and skies will turn partly cloudy in front of the trof. The
big change will be the dramatic weakening of the offshore flow.
This more than anything will bring 4-8 degrees of cooling to the
coasts and vlys.

The trof will sweep over the area Sunday evening or Monday
morning. The deterministic GFS and most of its ensemble members
are dry but the EC and most of its ensemble members have some
rain. Added a slight chc of rain to the area for the evening and
morning period. The best chc of rain will be in the mtns rainfall
amounts, if any, will be on the light side.

Broad east PAC ridging will keep the area dry early next week and
will allow for a little warming.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1159Z.

At 0936Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

Overall high confidence in 12Z TAFs in terms of flight
categories, lower confidence on winds. During periods of gusty
northerly winds, winds may fluctuate between NW to NE. Due to
gusty northerly winds, moderate turbulence and LLWS is possible
through the TAF period. For KSBP, there is a 30% chance that
conditions remain VFR this morning.

KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF in terms of VFR conditions,
lower confidence in terms of wind. Good confidence in N winds
remaining under 8 kt through 14Z. High confidence that any
easterly wind component will be under 6 kt 14Z-18Z. Moderate
turbulence and LLWS is possible through the TAF period.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF in terms of VFR conditions,
lower confidence in terms of wind. Moderate turbulence and LLWS is
possible through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...28/205 AM.

Gusty northwest to north winds will continue across the waters through
Wednesday, with the strongest and most widespread tonight and
Wednesday. For the waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas
Island, high confidence in at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions through Wednesday night. There is a 40% chance of Gale
Force winds south of Point Sal through the morning and early
afternoon, increasing to an 80% chance for tonight and Wednesday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, the western portion will likely
have SCA conditions tonight into Wednesday. Winds over the Eastern
Channel should stay under criteria, except short period steep
seas of SCA criteria are likely on Wednesday. Similar story for
the Santa Monica Basin, except with a better chance for SCA level N
winds on Wednesday.

The winds should weaken and become north to northeast Wednesday
night through Thursday, but remain gusty and likely SCA for some
areas.

A large long period west swell will impact the area through
Thursday or Friday, along with a large and steep short period
wave through Wednesday due to the winds.

&&

.BEACHES...28/140 AM.

Moderate High Surf will continue through at least this evening.
The surf is a complicated combination of a long period NW to W
swell and a short period wave as a result of the persistent
northerly winds just off the coast. This may result in the surf
heights being a little over forecast due to the difficulties in
accounting for how much each of those wave groups are contributing
to the overall wave height.

There should be a break in the surf tonight into Wednesday, with
the surf possibly going above High Surf again Wednesday night
through Friday, especially for the Central Coast.

The public should be urged to stay away from rocks and jetties.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for
      zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones
      44-45-88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones
      46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from noon today to 3 PM PST
      Thursday for zones 46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from this evening through Wednesday
      evening for zone 52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Wednesday for
      zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3
      PM PST Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from this evening through Wednesday
      evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Santa Ana winds continue Thursday along with possible gales
across the coastal waters. Periods of high surf are expected for
the Central Coast through Thursday.

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Stewart
MARINE...Stewart
BEACHES...Kittell/Stewart
SYNOPSIS...Smith/Stewart

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