Gale Warning 10, NWS Los Angeles, CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1029 PM PST Mon Feb 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...03/833 PM.

Offshore winds have diminished somewhat but will remain elevated
and gusty overnight and Tuesday, especially through and near
mountain passes and canyons. Many areas away from the winds will
have near freezing temperatures with hard freezes over some interior
valleys. Near normal temperatures will return by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...03/800 PM.

***UPDATE***

The cold air mass behind the recent frontal passage remains over
the area, with an even colder lows expected tonight for areas with
decreasing winds. The gusty northerly winds across the area will
shift to the northeast overnight, shifting the focus of stronger
winds. All wind-sheltered locations will see temperatures
dropping quickly tonight as the air mass is very dry and cold.
Areas exposed to offshore winds will see less cooling overnight.
Freeze Warnings are expected for sheltered coast and valley
locations, with Hard Freeze Warnings for interior valleys of SLO,
SBA Counties, the Ojai Valley and the Antelope Valley, where
widespread teens are expected. Only the L.A. and Ventura Coast are
not under and freeze products, with lows in the upper 30s to low
40s expected. (and the mountains do not have Freeze products
issued in the wintertime).

Peak NE winds for L.A. and Ventura Counties are expected to be
between 45 to 55 mph, highest over L.A. County. The valleys will
see gusts between 35 to 50 mph.

***From Previous Discussion***

The north wind event from last night is in the process of
transitioning to a traditional Santa Ana event tonight into
Tuesday and in some areas (mountains mainly) Wednesday. The winds
will have a moderating effect on the temps across parts of
LA/Ventura Counties but less so on Wednesday as winds will be
weaker and more isolated. So in those areas (such as the Oxnard
coastal plain and some of the valleys) Wednesday will be the
coldest morning.

High pressure will start nudging into the area Tuesday into
Wednesday and this will lead to a slow warming trend through the
end of the week. Daytime highs should reach normal levels in many
areas by Wednesday and possibly slightly above normal Thursday.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...03/154 PM.

Few if any changes were made to the weekend/early next week
forecast. The slow warmup will continue through Saturday before a
trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will turn gradients
strongly onshore later Sunday into Monday. This system still has
very much of an inside slider look to it, though models are
differing with regard to how much over-water trajectory it will
have. The EC is farther west while the latest GFS has shifted more
to the east and is drier. It's farther west than the system
yesterday was and most of the ensembles do favor a slightly higher
coverage of precip, but still very light (under a quarter inch).
We may ultimately have to expand the coverage of pops but given
the uncertainties and overall minimal impacts have left this part
of the forecast as is for now.

&&

.AVIATION...04/0626Z.

At 0530Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor a sfc based
inversion.

High confidence in CAVU conds through the period all TAFs. Lower
confidence in wind speeds. Lgt-mdt turbc and LLWS at times to
continue in many areas south of Point Conception through 00Z.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU conds through the period. Fair
confidence in winds west winds may be delayed until 22Z.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period.
Lgt ocnl mdt turbc and LLWS through 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/741 PM.

High confidence in very dangerous sea conditions continuing
across the entire waters through tonight, with seas remaining
large over the outer waters through Tue.

Moderate confidence that Gale Force NW winds will affect the
outer waters thru late tonight. There is a 40 percent chance of
Gale force winds easing to SCA thresholds after midnight. Seas
will likely remain above 10 feet through Tue afternoon or
evening, and there is a 30% chance that winds will remain at or
above SCA levels through late in the afternoon.

Across the northern inner waters, winds are diminishing some, and
are expected to remain at SCA levels through tonight. Seas will
likely remain above SCA levels into the morning hours Tuesday.

Across the SBA Channel, NW winds will likely above SCA levels
through midnight, before shifting to the northeast and diminishing
over the western portion. NE winds at SCA levels are expected
across eastern portions of the SBA Channel from Ventura to Point
Mugu Tuesday morning.

Across the southern inner waters, a Small Craft Advisory has been
issued, as NW winds will likely remain at or above SCA levels
thru this evening, and seas will remain close to SCA thresholds
thru late tonight. NE winds are expected to reach SCA levels from
Point Mugu to Santa Monica and south of Palos Verdes late tonight
and Tuesday morning, and there is a 20% chance of Gale Force
winds gusts. The winds will begin to subside by around noon.

&&

.BEACHES...03/103 PM.

Continued very large seas will result in rough, short period high
surf on area beaches through tonight. Surf is expected to average
10 to 15 feet with locally higher sets along the Central Coast
into this afternoon, then surf will slowly subside this evening.
This will likely result in powerful and frequent breaking waves
on west and northwest facing shores, along with frequent strong
rip currents. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the
Central Coast through late this evening.

High Surf Advisories remain in effect for west facing beaches
south of Point Conception through tonight. Surf will average 5 to
8 feet on west facing beaches of Ventura County and Los Angeles
County, and on the west side of Catalina Island. On the Santa
Barbara South Coast, surf of 3 to 6 feet is expected. In all
areas, the waves will be short period and very rough. Strong rip
currents are expected on all area beaches through tonight.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Freeze Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      34-35-39-45-46-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through
      Wednesday morning for zones 34-35-39-45-46-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 36>38-44-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Hard Freeze Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through
      Wednesday morning for zones 36>38-44-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones
      44-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Tuesday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Smith
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Smith
BEACHES...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Kj

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