Wind Advisory 2, NWS Chicago, IL

047 
WWUS73 KLOT 060007
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
607 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

ILZ003-004-008-010-060815-
/O.EXB.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.200306T0300Z-200306T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon, 
Mount Morris, Byron, Polo, and Dixon
607 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with strongest gusts up to
  45 to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, Ogle and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday. The strongest
  winds are expected overnight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Small
  tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on 
  east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-011>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-060815-
/O.EXB.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.200306T0300Z-200306T1500Z/
McHenry-Lake IL-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Waukegan, 
Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
Round Lake Beach, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, 
Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison,
Ottawa, Streator, Peru, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, 
Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, 
Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, 
Watseka, Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
and Beecher
607 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with strongest gusts up to
  45 to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and 
  northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday. The strongest
  winds are expected overnight into Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Small
  tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on 
  east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-060815-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.200306T0900Z-200306T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, 
Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton
607 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with strongest gusts up to
  50 to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties. The strongest wind gusts
  are expected along the Lake Michigan shore and a few to several
  miles inland.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. In
  addition, driving will be difficult, especially on east-west
  oriented roads, including I-80/94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Castro

011 
WWUS73 KLOT 060331
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
931 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

ILZ003-004-008-010-061145-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon, 
Mount Morris, Byron, Polo, and Dixon
931 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with strongest gusts up to 
  45 to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, Ogle and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Friday. The strongest winds are expected 
  overnight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Small tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages 
  may result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially 
  on east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-011>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-061145-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
McHenry-Lake IL-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Waukegan, 
Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
Round Lake Beach, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, 
Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison,
Ottawa, Streator, Peru, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, 
Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, 
Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, 
Watseka, Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
and Beecher
931 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest to north-northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with 
  strongest gusts up to 45 to 50 mph are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and 
  northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Friday. The strongest winds are expected 
  overnight into Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Small tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages 
  may result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially 
  on east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-061145-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.200306T0900Z-200306T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, 
Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton
931 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with strongest gusts up to 
  50 to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties. The strongest wind gusts
  are expected along the Lake Michigan shore and a few to several
  miles inland.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on 
  east-west oriented roads, including I-80/94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Castro

422 
WWUS73 KLOT 060907
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
307 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

ILZ003-004-008-010-061200-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon, 
Mount Morris, Byron, Polo, and Dixon
307 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, Ogle and Lee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Small
  tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on
  east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-011>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-061500-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
McHenry-Lake IL-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-
Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Waukegan, 
Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
Round Lake Beach, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, 
Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison,
Ottawa, Streator, Peru, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, 
Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, 
Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, 
Watseka, Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
and Beecher
307 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest to north-northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and 
  northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Small tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages 
  may result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially 
  on east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-061800-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, 
Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton
307 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 to 50 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties. The strongest wind gusts 
  are expected along the Lake Michigan shore and a few to 
  several miles inland.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. In
  addition, driving will be difficult, especially on east-west
  oriented roads, including I-80/94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Kluber

489 
WWUS73 KLOT 060946
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
346 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

ILZ003-004-008-010-061100-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon, 
Mount Morris, Byron, Polo, and Dixon
346 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts are expected to remain around or under 40 mph through
the remainder of the early morning hours.

$$

ILZ011-019-061100-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
De Kalb-La Salle-
Including the cities of DeKalb, Sycamore, Ottawa, Streator, Peru,
La Salle, Mendota, and Marseilles
346 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts are expected to remain around or under 40 mph through
the morning.

$$

ILZ005-006-012-013-020-021-023-032-033-039-103>108-061500-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
McHenry-Lake IL-Kane-DuPage-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-
Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Waukegan, 
Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, 
Round Lake Beach, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, 
Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison, Oswego, 
Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, 
Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, 
Watseka, Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, 
Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, 
Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
and Beecher
346 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest to north-northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Small tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages 
  may result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially 
  on east-west oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-061800-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, 
Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton
346 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties. The strongest wind gusts 
  are expected along the Lake Michigan shore and a few to 
  several miles inland.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on 
  east-west oriented roads, including I-80/94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

204 
WWUS73 KLOT 061045
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
445 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

ILZ005-012-013-020-021-023-032-105>108-061145-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
McHenry-Kane-DuPage-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-
Southern Cook-Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-
Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, 
Lake in the Hills, McHenry, Woodstock, Cary, Aurora, Elgin, 
Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, 
Carol Stream, Addison, Oswego, Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, 
Morris, Coal City, Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, 
Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, 
Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, 
Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, 
and Beecher
445 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Wind gusts are expected to remain around or under 40 mph through
the remainder of the early morning hours.

$$

ILZ006-033-039-103-104-061500-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
Lake IL-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, 
Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, Round Lake Beach, Watseka, 
Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, Des Plaines, 
Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, 
Oak Park, and La Grange
445 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...North-northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45
  mph along the immediate Lake Michigan shore and southeast of
  I-57. Gusts to 40 mph inland.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Small tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages 
  may result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially 
  on east-west oriented roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

INZ001-002-061800-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, 
Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton
445 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected. 

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties. The strongest wind gusts 
  are expected along the Lake Michigan shore and a few to 
  several miles inland. 

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on 
  east-west oriented roads, including I-80/94. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Kluber

556 
WWUS73 KLOT 061456
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
856 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

ILZ006-033-039-103-104-061600-
/O.EXP.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1500Z/
Lake IL-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, North Chicago, 
Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, Round Lake Beach, Watseka, 
Gilman, Onarga, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, Des Plaines, 
Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, 
Oak Park, and La Grange
856 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

Wind speeds have fallen below advisory criteria across Illinois and
will continue to diminish through the day.

$$

INZ001-002-061800-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200306T1800Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, 
Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Chesterton
856 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected. 

* WHERE...Lake IN and Porter Counties. The strongest wind gusts 
  are expected along the Lake Michigan shore and a few to 
  several miles inland. 

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. In addition, driving will be difficult, especially on 
  east-west oriented roads, including I-80/94. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Petr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
143 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

.UPDATE...
1030 AM CST

Potent littler clipper-type system is dropping rapidly
southeastward through central Minnesota at this hour with a
surface reflection analyzed near the western UP of Michigan. This
feature will drag an initial cold front through the area later
this afternoon. Ahead of this initial front, winds are getting
gustier as we've started to mix into some higher momentum aloft.
Recent AMDAR soundings sample about 40 kts of flow in the 925-850
mb layer, and we'll likely be able to tap into a good percentage
of this for the next few hours resulting in wind gusts towards 40
to mph. Can't rule out a sporadic Wind Advisory-criteria gust near
the IL/WI state line, but do think these will begin to
(temporarily) subside by mid-afternoon as this initial jet max
spreads east. Radar is also showing echos just to our north, but
VAPOR soundings reveal the 700-900 mb layer is still quite dry
down across the I-80 corridor. Can't rule out a spit of rain from
this as things pinwheel east, and low pops (<20-30%) seem to
cover this potential.

Hires guidance continues to support the develop of some low-topped
convective elements later this afternoon/early evening behind the
initial front. Forecast soundings from the more aggressive mixers
(HRRR/RAP) indicate sufficient instability with cloud tops below
about -12C to support some graupel showers and potentially even
some sporadic lightning. Finally, with showers developing into
40-45 kts of wind, any showers that do develop may be capable of
producing some isolated wind gusts to 45 to 50 mph. We'll also
investigate the need for a Wind Advisory this evening as a
secondary front pushes in with some pretty respectable pressure
rises to our north. Finally, we may need to consider a slight
northward expansion to the Lakeshore Flood Advisory for the rest
of Cook County for Friday.

Carlaw

&&

.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CST

Through Friday...

...Significant Dune Erosion and Lakeshore Flooding Likely in
Northwestern Indiana Friday...

Currently, a cut-off low pressure system is drifting eastward along
the Gulf Coast, north of which (and to our southeast) is a surface
high pressure system. Another low pressure system associated with an
upper-level shortwave trough is located over far northwestern
Minnesota, and a developing/secondary high pressure system is
located over Montana. While the low pressure system over Minnesota
is not overly deep (~1003 mb as of press time), quite the pressure
gradient exists on its periphery due to the surrounding highs.
Indeed, widespread 30-35 kt (35-40 mph) wind gusts are being
measured over the Dakotas even at this hour behind a southeastward-
sweeping cold front.

As the surface low tracks east southeast toward the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan this morning, southerly winds will increase ahead of the
cold front and across Illinois with gusts of of 30-35 mph possible.
The cold front will pass through during the early afternoon hours
though likely in dry fashion thanks for a dry low-level air mass as
confirmed by a suite of nearby 00Z RAOBs and sparse observations of
precipitation beneath upstream radar returns. The highest potential
for anything measurable (liquid) will be along the
Wisconsin/Illinois state line where synoptic-forcing will be best.
However, with cooling mid-level temperatures and hence steepening
low-level lapse rates, scattered showers are possible this afternoon
with ptype of a rain/snow mix and perhaps even some convective
graupel. Tonight, all precipitation will be shunted eastward and
transition to scattered lake effect snow showers over northwestern
Indiana. With marginal over-water instability, minimal snow
accumulations are expected (better chance in far southwestern
Michigan).

In the wake of the front, winds will become increasingly breezy
especially after dark. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40
mph are possible from 9 pm tonight to 12 pm Friday, with upstream
observations in the incoming pressure gradient confirming the
initially unfavorable timing shouldn't be a problem. Interestingly,
a few deterministic models hint the low may dive south across
Michigan (as the upper-level trough tries to phase with the
aforementioned cut-off low pressure system along the Gulf Coast),
which would lead to a locally tighter pressure gradient and hence
stronger winds. In fact, several CAMs indicate the potential to
gust over 45 mph, but confidence in such an outcome is not high
at this time. However, along the lakeshore and especially in
northwestern Indiana, wind gusts in excess of 45 are definitely
possible, potentially lasting into Friday afternoon. While the sun
will be out on Friday and highs should climb to near 40, it'll
sure feel chilly with wind- driven apparent temperatures in the
20s.

Lakeshore erosion and flooding concern continues to increase Friday,
particularly over northwestern Indiana. Friday morning, sustained
north/northwesterly winds of 35-40 mph over Lake Michigan will
likely whip up 14-18 ft waves directed toward the northwestern
Indiana shore leading to significant beach and dune erosion. Our in-
house climatology-driven sustained wind/wave relationship suggests
even larger waves are possible. Additionally, experimental Lakeshore
flooding modeling now suggests a wind-driven 1+ ft water level rise
(essentially a storm surge) is possible across the southern part of
Lake Michigan with this storm. With the current record-high Lake
Michigan water levels, the additional water rise will exasperate
the impact of waves and lead to inundation of low-lying areas and
ports along the lakeshore. All factors combined, significant beach
and dune erosion and lakeshore flooding is likely in northwestern
Indiana Friday, sunrise to sunset, warranting the upgrade of the
Lakeshore Flood Watch to a Lakeshore Flood Warning. And, even
though waves will not be directed toward the Illinois shoreline,
the potential for a 1 foot water rise with any waves would likely
lead to minor flooding of low-lying areas along the Illinois
shoreline of Lake Michigan. As such, we felt it would be prudent
to issue a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for central Cook county for
expected minor impacts.

Borchardt

&&

.LONG TERM...

Friday night through Thursday...

143 PM...Forecast concerns include high temps this weekend...rain
Monday and then an unsettled pattern mid/late next week.

High pressure will be moving across the area Friday night and then
east of the area Saturday morning. Saturday morning will likely
be rather chilly with lows in the 20s with light winds and clear
skies. Warmer air quickly spreads back into the area Saturday on
gusty southwest winds. Highs in the lower/mid 50s Saturday and
into the lower 60s Sunday. These temps have been fairly consistent
for several runs now. Winds on Sunday may end up being a bit
stronger than Saturday and will be strong enough to prevent any
lake cooling. Main forecast concern over the weekend appears to be
an elevated fire concern. See fire weather section below.

Models have also be quite consistent with the next system to
affect the area Monday. Timing may be just a tad slower but light
rain will spread across the area Monday morning and continue into
Monday evening. Rainfall amounts possibly reaching an inch in some
locations. Temperatures will still be mild with highs in the upper
40s/lower 50s. A cold front will move across the area Monday night
into Tuesday.

Next system then moves across the area Wednesday morning and in
the past 24 hours the gfs has trended toward the warmer ecmwf and
the ecmwf had trended toward the faster gfs. Thus...chance pops on
track for this time period. For now...have maintained a chance of
rain/snow in the north which is possible...but precip may end up
being mainly rain. Fast behind this system is another low pressure
that may affect the area Thursday/Thursday night though there are
still track differences. cms

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

143 PM...There will be an elevated fire danger for Saturday and
Sunday afternoons this weekend.

A ridge of high pressure will be moving east of the area
Saturday morning. Southwest winds will steadily increase through
the morning with gusts into the 30 mph range by afternoon...
possibly higher especially across northwest IL. Dewpoints will
likely be starting in the mid teens Saturday morning and only
gradually increase to the mid/upper 20s by evening. With high
temps expected in the lower/mid 50s...minimum relative humidity
levels will likely be in the 25 to 30 percent range.

On Sunday...southwest winds are expected to be stronger with gusts
possibly into the 35-40 mph range by afternoon. High temps are
expected to reach the lower 60s across much of the area with
dewpoints slowly increasing into the mid 30s by mid/late
afternoon. This would yield minimum relative humidity levels
around 30 percent.

While reaching red flag criteria is currently not expected...both
days will by dry and windy with only a low chance for light
precipitation tonight...Thursday night. Thus fuels will continue
to dry into this weekend and the expected combination of winds/
humidity and drying fuels will produce an elevated fire danger.

Rain is expected to spread across the area on Monday with
rainfall amounts possibly reaching one inch in some areas. cms

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

1135 AM...Forecast concerns include...

Strong/gusty westerly winds through this evening.
Very strong north/northwest winds tonight/Friday morning.
Chance of rain showers changing to snow showers this evening.
Mvfr cigs tonight.

Southwest winds gusting into the mid 30kt range will shift
westerly with a cold front by mid afternoon. Winds will slowly
shift west/northwest going into this evening and then turn more to
the northwest after midnight behind another cold front. Wind
speeds and gusts will increase again overnight with gusts into the
35-40kt range possible. These strong gusts are expected to
continue through at least daybreak Friday morning as directions
turn more to the north/northwest. Speeds/gusts will begin to
diminish late Friday morning and then steadily diminish Friday
afternoon...though wind directions will remain northerly.

The first chance of rain showers early this afternoon is starting
to diminish as there remains quite a bit of dry air in place.
There could be a few sprinkles or an isolated shower. There will
be a little bit better chance of rain showers late this afternoon
into this evening as instability increases. Have added tempo
mention for this possibility and then as colder air spreads across
the region later this evening there will be a chance for snow
showers. Confidence is low for how widespread these snow showers
may become but its possible they may briefly reduce visibility
with any heavier snow showers.

Mvfr cigs are expected to spread across the area late this
afternoon into this evening and may need some adjustment lower...
toward 1kft depending on trends. These lower clouds will slowly
scatter from west to east Friday morning. cms

&&

.MARINE...
335 AM CST

South-southwest winds will increase Thursday morning ahead of a
cold front, which will push across southern Lake Michigan during
the early afternoon hours. Behind the front, winds will shift to
the west. After initial 25 to 30 kt speeds hazardous for small
craft, confidence has increased in frequent gale force gusts to
35 kt ahead of and behind the initial cold front passage to issue
a Gale Warning starting at 8AM CST Thursday. Prior to the cold
front passage, there is concern for sporadic gusts to 40+ kt as a
corridor of very strong winds moves overhead. There may then be
lulls to sub-gale force at times during the rest of the daytime
on Thursday and into the early evening, but should see fairly
regular gusts up to around 35 kt.

Low pressure will then deepen Thursday evening-night as it moves
southeast across the Great Lakes region, with the gradient
tightening overnight. Winds will shift to the northwest to north-
northwest overnight, with speeds/gusts up to 35 to 40 kt. The
longest duration of these into Friday morning will be focused
onto the Indiana shore. High pressure then moves quickly into the
area Friday afternoon and evening, with winds steadily decreasing
at that time. The Gale Warning is in effect as mentioned starting
at 8AM CST Thursday with an end time of 12PM CST Friday. It's
possible that lower end gales may continue for the Indiana shore a
few hours longer than the current end time, which will be
addressed with later updates.

Castro/Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lakeshore Flood Advisory...ILZ014-ILZ104...9 AM Friday to 9 PM
     Friday.

IN...Lakeshore Flood Warning...INZ001-INZ002...3 AM Friday to 9 PM
     Friday.

LM...Gale Warning...nearshore waters until noon Friday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
447 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-061100-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
447 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 /547 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central
Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Non thunderstorm wind Risk.
  Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
  Elevated Lakeshore Flood Risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong southerly winds this morning could gust over 40 mph.
  Westerly winds could gust over 40 mph this afternoon and
  tonight. The strong winds could result in a heightened fire
  danger this afternoon. In addition, the strong northerly winds
  will likely result in some minor lake shore flooding in Chicago
  and more significant lake shore flooding and erosion along the
  northwest Indiana shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday...
  Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  Significant Lakeshore Flood Risk.
Saturday afternoon...
  Elevated Fire Weather Risk.
Sunday afternoon...
  Limited Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  Elevated Fire Weather Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

LMZ740>745-061100-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
447 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Gale force winds and or very hazardous waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday...
  Wind gusts to near storm force and extremely hazardous
  waves are likely.
Saturday and Sunday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Tuesday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

- Izzi

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