Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Widely scattered convection has developed across central KY and
southern IN this afternoon. Our area is currently on the
warm/unstable side of a weak cold front draped NE to SE through
central IN and southern IL. Dewpoints are generally in the upper
60s, PW is 1.5 inches, and MLCAPE is up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective
bulk shear will remain at 20-25 kts, sufficient for brief strong
updrafts capable of producing heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty
winds. Some training of heavier rainfall rates could easily result
in localized flooding concerns as well.

Thunderstorms will diminish considerably in strength and coverage
after sunset. The overnight period looks largely dry. The weak
boundary will continue to drift across the region, and plentiful
moisture and light and variable winds may yield some fog concerns
east of I-65. Along and west of the I-65 corridor, a post-frontal
stratus deck is likely to develop and move in. So the main concern
for patchy dense fog is in the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland
regions. Further north and west, low stratus will likely make for a
dreary start to Tuesday. Lows in the mid 60s will be common tonight.

On Tuesday, the upper low continues to pivot southeast across Lower
Michigan with the broader upper trough remaining in place all the
way down to the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, cooler and drier air will
steadily advect in from the northwest with a Canadian sfc high.
Scattered light showers look possible mainly east of I-65. Moderate
instability near the I-75 corridor could allow for a couple stronger
storms during the afternoon hours. Highs Tue will range from the mid
70s to lower 80s, several degrees below normal.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Tuesday Night through Friday Night...

At the beginning of the period, upper level pattern is expected to
feature a trough east, ridge west pattern across the CONUS.  Upper
trough axis over the east is expected to lift out to the northeast
taking tropical cyclone Isaias along with it.  Surface cold front
should be south of the region and high pressure is expected to build
into the region from the north and west.  This should bring mainly
dry and much less humid weather to the region for the remainder of
the workweek.  We'll have a few weak perturbations that pass through
within the upper flow.  These could spit out a few showers here and
there, but for now, plan on keeping the coverage below 15%.

Highs will start off on Wednesday in the upper 70s to around 80.
Slight warming is expected on Thursday with highs topping out in the
low-mid 80s.  Overnight lows will be pretty cool for early August
standards.  Lows in the mid-upper 50s for Tuesday night and
Wednesday night look like a good bet.  Slightly warmer mins are
expected for Thursday night. By Friday, we should see temperatures
warming into the mid 80s across southern IN and much of KY.
Downstate along the KY/TN border a run in the upper 80s is not out
of the question.  As mentioned above, it will be noticeably less
humid through the period as dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.

Saturday through Monday...

As we get to the weekend, the upper level flow looks to flatten out
a bit.  The upper level ridge across the west is expected to flatten
out and expand eastward a bit.  More than likely, the Ohio Valley
will reside on the eastern edge of this ridge axis and will be in a
susceptible northwesterly flow storm pattern.  The model guidance
suggests that a number of perturbations will be passing through
within the mean flow.  The timing of these perturbations will take a
few days to smooth out, but for right now, at least climo PoPs are
warranted, perhaps a touch above climo for the Sun/Mon time frame.
For now, plan on going with 30-40% for the weekend and into early
next week and we can refine that upward if need be in future
forecasts.  Highs during the period look to be pretty seasonal with
readings in the upper 80s to around 90 and overnight lows in the mid-
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Scattered thunderstorms have fired this afternoon across central KY
and southern IN, and a storm could briefly impact any one of the TAF
sites with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. These storms are forming
along and on the south side of a frontal boundary currently draped
NE to SW across central Indiana and southern Illinois. Thunderstorm
coverage will diminish considerably in coverage after sunset with
mainly dry conditions tonight.

After 07-08z Tue morning, a combination of fuel alternate and IFR
stratus is likely to develop over central and western KY and
southern IN. LEX looks to be spared with stratus mainly off to their
north and west, but could see some fog instead. IFR stratus looks
most likely at HNB, with Fuel Alternate more likely at SDF. Any low
stratus is likely to improve to VFR by 16-17z. After the front
pushes through tonight with mainly light and variable winds,
prevailing winds will kick up out of the northwest after sunrise
Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
331 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 /231 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through sunset. A few of the
stronger storms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds.
Storms training over the same areas may also result in localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible again on Tuesday, mainly during
the afternoon hours. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally gusty winds. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will
then be possible this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation in not anticipated.

EBW/MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PERRYVILLE          37.65N 84.96W
08/03/2020                   BOYLE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
725 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW DANVILLE          37.65N 84.78W
08/03/2020                   BOYLE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE UPROOTED AND COVERING US 68.

&&

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW BURGIN             37.71N 84.81W
08/03/2020                   MERCER             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MERCER COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED A TREE DOWN
            ON US 127 AT 2118 DANVILLE ROAD.

&&

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
731 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MITCHELLSBURG           37.60N 84.95W
08/03/2020                   BOYLE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON MITCHELLSBURG KNOB ROAD.

&&

BJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
743 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

KYZ049-057-040015-
Clark-Madison-
743 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTIES...

At 743 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Richmond,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Harris Ferry, Round Hill, Caleast, Vianna, Redhouse,
Panola, Mina, College Hill and Cotton Branch.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3786 8401 3787 8403 3783 8400 3783 8404
      3785 8406 3782 8407 3785 8408 3782 8412
      3781 8412 3782 8410 3781 8408 3778 8411
      3777 8408 3772 8410 3767 8409 3765 8412
      3768 8443 3785 8440 3789 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 266DEG 27KT 3775 8431

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

KYZ077-078-081-040015-
Russell-Cumberland-Adair-
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RUSSELL...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 644 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Columbia, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Russell Springs, Cundiff, Gadberry, Webbs Cross Roads,
Royville, Fairplay, Russell County Airport, Crocus and Sewellton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3689 8547 3691 8547 3695 8544 3697 8546
      3701 8546 3712 8505 3689 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 251DEG 28KT 3695 8534

SCHOETTMER