Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A shortwave trough and remnant sfc meso low are evident over SE
Missouri this afternoon on satellite imagery and mosaic
reflectivity. Moist southerly low level flow continues downstream of
these features over central KY and southern IN. Weak LL convergence,
along with sfc heating and a boost from the shortwave, quickly
eroded a capping inversion earlier during the midday hours.
Scattered showers and storms, some briefly strong, continue to move
slowly northeast across the region. An isolated strong storm will be
capable of torrential rainfall, gusty winds over 30-40 mph, and
lightning. Hail seems less likely given very weak deep layer shear
and a moist environment. Storms are also struggling against marginal
lapse rates of 5.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer.

Storms are expected to weaken further after sunset as instability
diminishes. However, the upstream meso low will meander eastward
right across the forecast area overnight. Scattered showers and the
development of low clouds are expected overnight, with low clouds
persisting into the mid to late morning hours of Friday. Any
isolated showers in the I-75 corridor should be winding down by 10-
12z.

Subsidence behind the departing MCV and shortwave aloft could
actually provide for a mainly dry Friday. There is a weak signal in
CAMs for isolated showers/storms developing east of I-65 in the
afternoon, but confidence in the mesoscale details is low at this
time.

Upper 60s and lower 70s will be common for lows Friday morning. Low
stratus Friday morning will initially delay sfc heating, but highs
should still recover into the mid and upper 80s in the afternoon as
those low clouds lift/scatter.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Friday Night - Saturday...

Unsettled weather continues at least for the first part of the
weekend as hot and humid conditions stick around ahead of a cold
front. The front will finally push through our area later Saturday
as a surface low moves from the eastern Great Lakes into New
England. Will continue scattered storm chances Friday night and
Saturday ahead of this feature as the unstable airmass remains. Deep
layer shear will still be lacking, so don't expect much more than
garden variety storms. As always, any storm will be capable of
brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds.

The best chances by Saturday afternoon will mainly be limited to KY
south of the boundary, with things drying out from N to S the deeper
into the afternoon/evening we get on Saturday. Will keep coverage in
the isolated to scattered range, so not everyone will see a
shower/storm. Temps will be warm, ranging mostly in the 85 to 90
degree range.

Saturday Night - Monday Night...

A dry stretch of weather will take shape for the second part of the
weekend as initial dry NW flow aloft will combine with the southern
fringes of surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. We
will see a subtle "cool" down behind the front with lows back in the
low to mid 60s by Saturday night, and highs in the low to mid 80s
for Sunday. The BWG region will likely still see upper 80s on
Sunday. We may even see some upper 50 degree lows in our NE Sunday
night, with low 60s elsewhere.

The brief and subtle cool down will be short-lived as strong upper
ridging looks to quickly build over the area by Monday. This will
allow temps to rise back into the mid to upper 80s under continued
dry conditions. Monday night lows also follow the milder trend,
finding their way back to the mid and upper 60s.

Tuesday - Wednesday Night...

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis will start to slide east in
response to a northern Plains shortwave trough. Meanwhile, Cristobal
will be somewhere over the lower or mid Mississippi River Valley.
Depending on when it gets picked up by the aforementioned shortwave
trough, will play a big factor on when/if we start to see rainfall
chances increase. Lots to resolve between now and then, but for now
will continue with Tuesday-Wednesday as the best time frame for
rainfall. Heavy rainfall is still possible depending on where
Cristobal tracks in conjunction with the northern Plains/upper
Midwest system. The "crystal ball" for Cristobal will remain
fuzzy/low confidence for a bit longer.

Thursday...

Thursday is pretty low confidence at this time as progression of the
cold front trailing from the northern system mentioned above, may be
slowed by a closed low off the mid Atlantic coast. Much of the data
suggests dry again by Thursday, and will continue with that
forecast, however may have to watch for some added precipitation
chances if that overall progression trends slower. Look for temps in
the 80s for highs during this time.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

VFR weather is likely this afternoon and evening outside of any
heavier showers or storms, but coverage of showers and storms has
been increasing early this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected across central KY and southern IN through late this evening
before diminishing. Stronger storms could produce gusty winds in
excess of 30 kts, very heavy rainfall, and lightning.

From 00-06z tonight, as lingering showers exit from west to east,
MVFR stratus is expected to begin developing around a weak area of
low pressure. This meso low will move east across the area
overnight, and MVFR ceilings should persist until mid to late
morning on Friday. After midnight, the forecast does trend drier
through Friday morning. Depending on the location of subtle
boundaries leftover tomorrow, isolated to scattered showers and
storms are possible again Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...EBW

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