Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
253 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Watching widely scattered storms popping up across the region.
Latest GOES sounder data indicates fairly uniform instability across
the region this hour, and current Kentucky Mesonet shows the
available moisture across the region well...with dewpoints around
70! Such a change from the rest of this year so far. Would expect
current storms to lay down some outflow boundaries that will help
new storms to develop through the rest of the afternoon. As is the
case with a pulse thunderstorm environment, most hi-res guidance is
not initializing well, so have been advertising scattered storm
chances. As has been mentioned before, shear is fairly weak, so main
concern will be with the stronger updrafts and subsequent
downdrafts. DCAPEs are fairly high per latest SPC mesoanalysis...so
still calling for a few storms with damaging wind gusts.

As we get into the evening hours, expect storms to dissipate...but
the mugginess will remain. South winds around 5 mph should help to
keep any fog formation to a minimum, but cannot rule out a brief
period with patches of fog this evening in the wake of any early
evening storms.

Sunday we reload somewhat, with shear remaining fairly light.
Instability may end up a little stronger, but the question mark will
be triggers to take advantage of that instability. For now, have
gone a little less for coverage than with today's rain chances. That
should help temperatures get into the upper 80s for our warmer
spots...with heat indices getting into the lower 90s.  Good summer
weather for the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Unsettled weather looks to prevail throughout the long term, as the
region become situated under a persistent ridging pattern. As such,
expect to see afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s, causing heat index values to peak in the
low 90s. SW flow during this time will also help funnel juicy Gulf
moisture across the region, resulting in daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms, with the highest chances occurring during the
afternoon/evening hours.

With the upper ridge in place, stronger winds aloft will be
restricted to our west and north, and deep layer shear here will be
weak to moderate, causing the severe potential to be rather limited.
However, it is worth noting that locally heavy downpours, gusty
winds, and small hail may certainly still occur given the
instability in place coupled with PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches.
Localized flooding may also become an issue given the recent rains
and saturated grounds. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to be above
climatological norms throughout the week, with temperature forecast
to only fall into the upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Atmosphere destabilizing under some good heating. Expect a few
stronger storms to pop up this afternoon, with forecast timing based
on latest satellite/radar imagery and statistical guidance. Should
the core of these scattered storms hit the terminals, they will
bring brief IFR conditions and gusty winds, likely to at least 30
knots. Storms will wind down this evening, with a more uniform
southerly wind becoming established overnight. Expect another round
of widely scattered storms Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RJS
Long Term...SSC
Aviation...RJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-241900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
256 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020 /156 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into the evening
across the outlook area. The strongest storms will produce locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, hail, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected for the next several days,
especially in the heat of the afternoons and early evenings. Some
storms will produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. All
thunderstorms are dangerous and produce lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are
always welcome to report observed severe weather and flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS/SSC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
539 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

KYZ036-040-041-232215-
Scott-Woodford-Fayette-
539 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD...SOUTHERN
SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 539 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Versailles,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Versailles, Midway, Stamping Ground, Viley,
Longlick, Spindletop Estates, Skinnersburg and Moon Lake Estates.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3800 8464 3800 8466 3799 8466 3803 8478
      3836 8466 3826 8443 3825 8442 3822 8442
      3821 8440 3821 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 209DEG 20KT 3807 8468

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
541 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S SULPHUR             38.45N 85.27W
05/23/2020                   HENRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKING TRAFFIC
            ON HIGHWAY 146 BETWEEN PENDLETON AND NEW
            CASTLE. THE FIRE DEPARTMENT IS RESPONDING.

&&

KDW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
559 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

INZ090-091-KYZ029-030-038-232230-
Floyd-Harrison-Jefferson-Bullitt-Spencer-
559 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...SOUTH
CENTRAL FLOYD...WEST CENTRAL SPENCER...JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN BULLITT
COUNTIES...

At 557 PM EDT, gusty winds, likely to 40 mph, ahead of a strong
thunderstorm was located over Valley Station. These winds will
continue into the Louisville Airport by 615 PM.

The storm driving these winds is near Elizabeth and moving east at
30 mph. Additional strong wind gusts and pea-sized hail are possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include... Louisville,
Jeffersontown, St. Matthews, Shively, Lyndon, Middletown, Douglass
Hills, Hurstbourne, Graymoor-Devondale and Anchorage.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3803 8607 3816 8608 3829 8551 3803 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 258DEG 27KT 3810 8588

RJS