Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1114 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

The forecast is on track with only hourly temperatures needing some
minor adjustments to keep up with quickly warming temperatures. Still
expecting some clouds to fill in over the area as we move into the
afternoon hours. Some of these are expected to produce thunderstorms
for another day of heavy rain makers.

&&

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Quiet weather across the region this morning, with current satellite
imagery showing mostly clear skies with a few areas of fog beginning
to develop. Patchy fog will be possible across the area towards
dawn, especially in locations that received rainfall yesterday
afternoon. Another hot and humid day is then in store for us, with
temperatures once again expected to rise into the low to mid 90s,
with heat indices approaching or just exceeding 100 degrees.

Under strong daytime heating, expect scattered showers and storms
through the afternoon and evening hours. Similar to previous days,
while we will see moderate destabilization and high PWATs, the
overall lack of vertical shear will lead to pulse type storms.
Within stronger storms, will continue to see the potential for
localized flash flooding issues due to torrential rainfall, with
gusty winds and frequent lightning also possible. While convection
will diminish towards sunset, will maintain slight chance of PoPs
overnight, mainly across our southern IN counties, as a shortwave
trough pushes into the Upper Great Lakes region. Overnight lows will
remain in the lower 70s, with patchy fog once again possible.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Weak cold front on Friday will bring fairly widespread showers and
storms the the area. Not expecting any severe weather but the air
mass is juicy enough that locally heavy rainfall is never off the
table.

The change in air mass is minimal and the only real difference in
sensible wx by Saturday will be a slight drop in dewpoints. With max
temps still touching 90, dewpoints in the mid 60s will still feel
muggy. However that will allow for overnight lows to get down closer
to climo.

We'll be mostly dry on Saturday, with just isolated/scattered
diurnal storms east of I-65. Expect a bit more coverage on Sunday as
another ripple in the NW flow aloft swings through the Ohio Valley.

Upper ridging starts to win out on Monday, at which point we shift
to more of a dry pattern but the heat will start to build again.
Expect more widespread 90s by mid-week, with the potential for
mid/upper 90s lurking just beyond Day 7. Dewpoints should continue
to run in the mid 60s, just low enough to keep heat indices out of
triple digits through at least Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Patchy fog has developed across the area, with HNB and LEX
fluctuating generally between MVFR and IFR visibilities. Will keep
mention of BR through 13Z, with potential also for BWG to see slight
reductions in visibility during that period. This afternoon, expect
scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area. With lack of
confidence on timing and location of storms, have introduced VCTS
and Prob30 mentions of TSRA by mid-afternoon at all TAF sites.
Within stronger storms, expect heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning to be possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...KDW
Short Term...JML
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...JML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
347 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-100800-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
347 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 /247 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Expect heavy rainfall that
could lead to localized flooding, as well as brief strong wind gusts
and frequent lightning.

Maximum heat indices will reach around 100 for many locations
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are likely on Friday, and could produce brief heavy
rainfall, locally gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will also be possible on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any instances of flooding or wind damage
to the National Weather Service throughout the week.

JML/RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1205 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

KYZ036-041-042-091630-
Bourbon-Scott-Fayette-
1205 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM GEORGETOWN TO PARIS......

At 1203 PM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms from near Paris to
near Georgetown. The storms are nearly stationary.

As these storms continue to develop, a few wind gusts in excess of
40 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
The north side of Lexington, Georgetown, Paris, Highlands,
Millersburg, Stamping Ground, North Middletown, Spindletop Estates,
Blacks Crossroads, and Hutchison.

If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3814 8408 3807 8464 3810 8463 3811 8463
      3812 8465 3812 8463 3818 8465 3818 8468
      3817 8469 3831 8470 3831 8444 3828 8444
      3828 8437 3832 8429 3832 8414 3829 8410
      3828 8412 3826 8410 3827 8408 3823 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 285DEG 4KT 3821 8416 3820 8450

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1258 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

KYZ035-036-040-041-091730-
Scott-Woodford-Fayette-Franklin-
1258 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN LEXINGTON AND FRANKFORT..

At 1256 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from 8 miles
east of Frankfort to just northeast of Blue Grass Field. Movement
was southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
The north side of Lexington, Georgetown, Frankfort, Meadowthorpe,
Thoroughbred Acres, Cardinal Hill, Northland, Highlands, and Bryan
Station.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3800 8463 3800 8466 3823 8486 3835 8467
      3807 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 332DEG 9KT 3824 8472 3805 8455

13