Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Another hot and humid day across the region as temperatures have
warmed into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Scattered showers and storms have been popping up over southern
KY, where deeper moisture and PWATs in the 1.7-2.0 inch range are
located. Within these storms, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall
are being observed. Scattered convection will continue through the
early evening before diminishing towards sunset.

Expect another mild night tonight, with overnight temperatures
remaining in the lower 70s. Tomorrow will then feature much of the
same, with high temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower
90s. Afternoon convection will be possible across a greater area as
compared to today as deeper moisture spreads northward and the
higher PWATs push north of the Ohio River. The environment will once
again be characterized by moderate instability (SBCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg) and weak shear. Main threats with storms will continue to be
the potential for torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

A stagnant summer weather pattern will prevail most of the week.
With a tropical air mass and the westerlies remaining well to our
north, there will be plenty of moisture and instability, but weak
capping and next to no shear. We'll see hot and increasingly humid
days, very warm and muggy nights, and scattered thunderstorms
developing each afternoon. Weak flow will provide no organization
for the storms, but they will be slow movers capable of producing
very heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

The pattern does become a little more amplified on Friday, with a
trof digging into the eastern CONUS and ridging over the Rockies, so
that will be our best chance for widespread precip. Will carry a
likely POP on Friday and continue at least a chance through the
nighttime hours. Ridging will start to win out over the weekend,
allowing for a downward trend in POPs Sat into Sun, but can't take
them out completely given NW flow aloft.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Mostly sunny skies being observed across much of the region this
afternoon, with some storms beginning to pop-up along the KY/TN
border. Generally expect storms to stay across south-central KY, so
have only included mention of TS at BWG through the afternoon and
evening hours, with coverage expected to decrease towards sunset.
Winds will remain light throughout the period, with potential for
fog again overnight. Scattered showers and storms will return Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...JML
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...JML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
326 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /226 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening, mainly
south of the parkways. Main threats are heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning, with potential for gusty winds in the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each day. Main
hazards will be isolated heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and
frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JML/RAS

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