Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...Flash Flood Threat Continues Through Tuesday...

After a brief lull, isolated showers and storms have once again
fired around the region. Expect coverage and intensity to uptick
through the rest of the afternoon and evening as storms will be in a
moderate/strongly unstable environment (~2500 J/KG ML CAPE). The big
driving factor to the instability is dew points in the mid to upper
70s in spots beneath modest (6/6.5 C) mid level lapse rates.
However, deep layer shear is lacking, so expect storm modes to be
pulse in nature. The weak deep layer flow will result in slower
storm motion, so any slow moving or training storms will have the
ability to put down intense rainfall rates. Precipitable water
values look to range close to 2" through this evening so flash
flooding is still a concern, especially in areas that have already
seen heavy rainfall recently. In addition, gusty winds and perhaps a
wet microburst or two are possible with the strongest storms (DCAPE
values around 1000-1100 J/KG currently in SW CWA).

Hi-res models have isolated to widely scattered coverage everywhere
across the CWA, however they have been particularly keying in a bit
more on the Bluegrass region this evening into the overnight. It
appears that this is along the old boundary, or a new boundary
formed from differential heating between this morning's heavy
rainfall and drier areas to the east. Regardless, seeing enough in
the data to expand the Flash Flood Watch another tier or so of
counties northeastward to cover this threat. This area hasn't seen
much rainfall yet, but with rates, and the ability to train the
threat seems reasonable. Also, extended the Flash Flood Watch
through 00z Wednesday as it looks like several rounds of potentially
heavy rainfall are still possible. Really concerned if we get
another round of heavy rain on the narrow corridor that saw very
heavy rain this morning! Turn Around, Don't Drown! messaging will be
hit hard again, especially for the overnight threats. Thanks to
JKL/ILN/IND for collaboration on the watch expansion/extension.

Also, included Logan/Simpson in the expanded Watch (thanks OHX/PAH)
to account for convective chances increasing through the overnight
and into Tuesday ahead of a subtle wave/disturbance. Just looking at
a Nam forecast sounding for tomorrow in our SW CWA near Bowling
Green tomorrow morning, the atmospheric profile shows 2+ inch PWATs
in the presence of 2000-3000 J/KG of MUCAPE in addition to weak deep
layer flow. That would be concerning considering the already low
Flash Flood Guidance values (<2" 1 hr in spots) for the region due
to the weekend heavy rainfall. As a result, felt it was best to
extend the time of the Watch in that area as well. Overall, we may
need to extend the watch even farther into Tuesday night at some
point.

One last thing to mention. Heat indices are around 100 degrees in
localized areas at times due to the very high dew points. Think this
should mostly be transient in nature given the clouds/showers storms
moving back into the area.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Unfortunately, the very humid and unsettled weather pattern will
continue into midweek. A vort lobe rotating southeast around the
upper low over the Northeast will enhance lift over a sfc quasi-
stationary boundary Tue night into Wednesday. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected with PW values possibly
pushing back above 2 inches Wed afternoon and evening. As such,
isolated to scattered flash flooding will remain a concern through
Wednesday.

But there's a light at the end of the tunnel: global models are in
better agreement with a drier end to the week. After the Wednesday
wave pushes south over the area, central CONUS ridging appears
likely to build eastward over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Sfc high
pressure also builds southeast from the Upper Midwest, providing a
drier NE flow pattern. That does mean temperatures will see a boost
without meaningful CAA. Hot and humid conditions may persist into
the weekend as well, but with drier weather overall.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

The main TAF concern will be shower/storm chances throughout the
forecast period with reduced flight conditions possible in
convection.  Scattered storms are expected to develop across the
area this afternoon so did include a VCTS group for late
afternoon/evening at all TAF sites.  Will need to amend for lower
vsbys/cigs if a storm reaches a TAF site. While convection may
decline some overnight, another round of showers and storms is
expected for tomorrow as early as tomorrow morning for BWG.  Because
confidence in timing of t-storms late tonight into tomorrow at any
one TAF site is low, will omit VCTS beyond 4Z at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for INZ077>079-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KYZ023>035-038>041-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...BJS
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

INZ077>079-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-301945-
Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-
Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, English,
Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 /244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical air in place will combine with a slow-moving boundary in
the region to cause additional waves of thunderstorms over central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas that see repeated thunderstorms
could see flash flooding with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
possible in localized areas through Tuesday. Gusty winds and lightning
will also be possible with any thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday due
to a stalled frontal boundary in the region. Localized flash
flooding will be the primary threat, but gusty winds and small hail
will also be possible with stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any instances of flooding the next couple
of days as well any stronger wind gusts or damage.

INZ076-083-KYZ036-037-042-043-301945-
Orange-Dubois-Scott-Harrison-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Paoli, Jasper, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Paris,
and Carlisle
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical air in place will combine with a slow-moving boundary in
the region to cause waves of thunderstorms over central Kentucky and
southern Indiana. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the
main threats in addition to lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday due
to a stalled frontal boundary in the region. Localized flash
flooding will be the primary threat, but gusty winds and small hail
will also be possible with stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any instances of flooding the next couple
of days as well any stronger wind gusts or damage.

BJS/EBW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>