Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...Flash Flooding Ongoing...

A significant flooding event is in progress across portions of west-
central and south-central KY, with Ohio, Grayson, and Butler
counties being the hardest hit areas thus far. A WNW to ESE oriented
band of strong convection has maintained through the morning and
early afternoon hours with a storm motion largely parallel to an
axis of deep, moist convergence. A convectively-enhanced wave has
also contributed to upward vertical motion. PWATs of 2.0-2.1 inches
have resulted in torrential rainfall rates, and MRMS 24 hour radar
only QPE shows a broad swath of 3 to 7 inches of rainfall in west-
central and south-central KY.

Unfortunately, additional scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
train southeast along the same low to mid level convergence axis
through 23z. Additional localized totals of 1 to 3 inches are
possible. After sunset through about midnight, we should see a lull
in thunderstorm activity. Given the latest trends in the hi-res
model data, confidence remains fairly high in convection
redeveloping along more of a NW to SE axis overnight. The data
suggest convection may develop just northeast of the saturated soils
from today's convection. A narrow line of storms looks to pop from
Huntingburg IN to Elizabethtown to Greensburg and could produce more
excessive rainfall in a short period of time. So no changes planned
to the Flash Flood Watch at this time, especially since scattered
convection could impact a wider area on Monday. There is a near term
flash flood threat in Logan and Simpson counties, or at least a
portion of those counties, but that area is expected to dry out
after 22-23z.

Convective trends after sunrise Monday are a little more uncertain.
Scattered thunderstorm development is still expected despite a
narrow upper ridge in place. Very humid, high PWAT air will remain
in place, so think storms over central KY and southern IN could
produce excessive rainfall should training storms again be an issue.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Unsettled weather will persist through much of next week. We will
begin the extended period under upper level ridging, with troughing
on either side of the ridge over the NW and NE CONUS. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary is expected to stall out over the
OH Valley, eventually dissipating by Thursday. By Monday night, a
closed upper low is expected to have developed over the mid MS
Valley and is forecast to slowly wander around the upper MS Valley
for a few days before dropping south along the eastern edge of the
ridge by the weekend. With a warm and moist airmass remaining in
place through the end of the week (dewpoints remaining in the upper
60s and lower 70s, PWATs in the 1.6-2.0" range), along with the
aforementioned sources of lift, will see near daily chances for
showers and storms, with the best chances being Tuesday through
Thursday. While we should see some moderate instability throughout
the week, an overall lack of vertical shear may be a limiting
factor. For now, main threats with any storms that develop look to
be gusty winds and torrential rainfall, with the potential for
flooding to become an issue.

High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s through the
weekend, with low temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Storms with very heavy rainfall continue to move southeast across
southern KY, impacting BWG. Meanwhile, fuel alternate ceilings
continue to affect SDF and LEX but are expected to improve by 20z.
Additional scattered thunderstorms could impact BWG and surrounding
areas in south-central KY through 23z or so before conditions
briefly dry out.

Overnight, a NW to SE oriented band of showers and thunderstorms is
likely to develop, possibly just west of SDF. The storms could then
slowly drift over SDF during the early morning hours. The showers
may stay east of HNB and BWG for the most part. IFR ceilings appear
likely to develop at LEX and the rest of the Bluegrass Region,
extending into eastern KY. Those ceilings should improve by late
Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ089.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ023>029-045>047-
     053>057-061>067-071-073>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...JML
Aviation...EBW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
222 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW MORGANTOWN        37.21N 86.72W
06/28/2020                   BUTLER             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED COUNTY ROADS CLOSED
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING WEST OF MORGANTOWN
            ALONG HWY 70.

&&

CJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

KYZ073-075-281915-
Monroe-Allen-
140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SCOTTSVILLE...

At 139 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms from near
Scottsville to near Westmoreland. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Forest, Akersville, Forest Springs, Holland, and Amos.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3664 8624 3675 8617 3669 8587 3663 8589
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 281DEG 25KT 3670 8615 3662 8620

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOWLING GREEN           36.97N 86.44W
06/28/2020                   WARREN             KY   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF FLASH FLOOD IN HILLTOP
            NEIGHBORHOOD IN BOWLING GREEN.

&&

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
359 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE SHREWSBURY        37.40N 86.33W
06/28/2020                   GRAYSON            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ASSISTED A COUPLE AND THEIR DOG FROM THEIR
            HOUSE BY BOAT...OFF OF SADLER ROAD. WATER
            WAS APPROXIMATELY 2 FEET ABOVE THE
            FOUNDATION WHEN THEY ARRIVED. TIME BASED ON
            FIRST REPORT TIME.

&&

RJS

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