Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
254 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Radar was showing areas of isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Many of these were producing gusty winds and heavy rain
creating localized flash flood concerns, especially in locations
that have received excessive rain over the last couple of days.
These showers and storms will begin to wane after sunset.

The forecast pattern remains mostly unchanged Tuesday as the Ohio
Valley continues to feel the effects of being between the upper
level ridging over the US east coast and a developing cutoff low over
TX & OK. We will remain in a moist, warm southerly flow through the
short term. Dew points once again reach the upper 60s to near 70 as
SBCAPE values rise to 1000 to 2000 J/kg with low shear. This will
provide another round of afternoon/evening isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region. PWAT values approach
1.50", so any showers/storms that form will produce large amounts of
rain. Upper flow will once again be fairly light allowing for slow
movers and possible flash flooding concerns once again.

Temperatures remain very summerlike with overnight lows upper 60s to
near 70 and afternoon highs tomorrow mid to upper 80s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

By Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, the center of a 500mb
upper level low (ULL) will be over northeastern Texas. This ULL will
result in a general southerly flow regime over central Kentucky and
southern Indiana, helping to keep the warmth and moisture around.
Wednesday's weather will be similar to the last several days, where
scattered showers and storms will likely develop during the
afternoon hours and persist into the evening hours. Weak flow aloft
will result in slowly moving storms, and high PWATs will contribute
to heavy downpours and potentially some localized flash flooding in
areas that see repeated storms.

Thursday's setup is looking fairly interesting. In the upper levels,
the 500mb ULL should be centered somewhere over Arkansas or near
Arkansas. An upper level jet max will round the base of the ULL and
likely be over central Kentucky and southern Indiana during the
daytime Thursday. Models depict modest 0-6km bulk shear (30-35kts)
by late May standards along with 1000-2000J/KG of CAPE developing by
mid afternoon. While lifting mechanisms will be limited, most models
depict convection developing during the afternoon hours. The
combination of shear/instability could pose an organized severe
threat, though poor mid-level lapse rates will probably keep this a
fairly marginal event.

By Friday, most guidance begins absorbing the ULL into the main flow
aloft and pulls it along with a cold front toward the region. A line
of showers and storms may develop ahead of the line. Gusty winds and
small hail may be possible in some of the stronger storms...but with
very weak shear and poor mid-level lapse rates in place, any severe
threat should be very limited. Heavy downpours and localized flash
flooding would be the bigger concern.

The cold front should push through by Saturday afternoon, ushering
in some relief from the heat and humidity while also providing a
break from the rain. Post frontal afternoon highs this weekend into
early next week should reach the upper 70s to low 80s, with
overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

Satellite showing a developing CU field this afternoon as the radar
shows isolated convection forming across the region. Chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms remain a threat through the
afternoon and into the early evening. Any shower or storm that moves
over a site could result in brief MVFR/IFR conditions with locally
gusty winds. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through most of
the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...BTN
Long Term...DM
Aviation...BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-261915-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
311 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 /211 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, diminishing
shortly after sunset. The strongest storms will produce locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, hail, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected for the next several days,
especially in the heat of the afternoons and early evenings. Some
storms will produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. All
thunderstorms are dangerous and produce lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are
always welcome to report observed severe weather and flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BTN/DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
445 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

INZ092-KYZ031-252115-
Clark-Oldham-
445 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND WEST
CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTIES...

At 445 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Prospect,
moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Charlestown, Owen, Goshen, Halls Landing, Clark Siding, Harmony
Village, Vesta, Hibernia, Skylight and Buckner.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3839 8565 3849 8567 3855 8552 3836 8548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 256DEG 7KT 3844 8561

SCHOETTMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
450 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

INZ079-092-KYZ031-032-252115-
Jefferson-Clark-Oldham-Trimble-
450 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND TRIMBLE COUNTIES...

At 450 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bedford, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, Bethlehem, Milton, Otto, Trout, Wises Landing and Monitor.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3863 8523 3862 8523 3850 8542 3858 8551
      3873 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 219DEG 10KT 3859 8541

SCHOETTMER

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